Nick Pivetta (SP) - Week 4 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues

OWNED IN: 45% of leagues

ANALYSIS: 2017 was an extremely disappointing season for Nick Pivetta. Coming out of two seasons in Triple-A where he had a 1.91 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings, a lot was expected of him. However, in 133 major league innings he had a 6.03 ERA and surrendered 1.7 home runs per nine innings pitched. The biggest concern from 2017 was his walk rate. Throughout his minor league career he had averaged roughly three walks per nine innings. In Triple-A, in 2017, he dropped it to just 0.6 but in his first major league stint he walked approximately four batters per nine innings. There are not many worse combinations for a pitcher than struggling with both walks and home runs. Understandably, a lot of people were nervous about whether he could get those issues under control in 2018. However, the positives from his first major league stint were that he struck out 140 hitters in those 133 innings and he ended the year with a FIP of 4.87, indicating that some of his ERA troubles were due to bad defense.

What we have seen in 2018 has been an almost mirror performance of his 2017 Triple-A performances. In 28 innings he has 28 strikeouts with just four walks (1.3 walks per nine innings). The Phillies much improved defence has also helped and Pivetta now has an ERA of 2.57 with a FIP of 2.29. There are some indicators which suggest this could be more than just a hot start. Firstly, 70% of his first pitches this season are being thrown for strikes compared 59.3% last season. Secondly his swinging strike percentage is up over three percent from 8.7% to 11.2%. For context, he now ranks 5^th in first pitch strike percentage and 35^th in swinging strike percentage among starting pitchers. Last year, he ranked 88^th and 91^st in those two categories respectively, when comparing pitchers who through at least 100 innings.

With the impressive strikeout rate he has the upside to make him a worthwhile addition in all leagues just in case this change in performance continues. If he does revert back to the old Pivetta, as the season progresses, he can always be dropped but this might be your last chance to add him if this change is for real.