RADIO
A player's ADP often has little to do with how good he is and everything to do with how good other people think he is. In an age when young studs are favored over more established veterans, Manny Margot has still escaped notice by playing his home games in San Diego.
Likewise, the narrative that Justin Verlander pitched the Astros to their first title in franchise history has convinced fantasy owners that he's capable of fronting a fantasy rotation. His peripherals suggest that he's barely qualified to be your third starter.
What follows is additional explication of the predictions above.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Manny Margot (OF, SD) ADP: 154
Margot had a weird 2017. His slash line was a reasonable .263/.313/.409 with a surprising 13 HR, but he stole only 17 bases against seven CS (71% success). That line might trick you into believing that he is something he is not.
Margot went 32-for-43 on SB attempts in 2016, 39-for-52 in 2015, 42-for-57 in 2014, 18-for-26 in 2013, and 33-for-42 in 2012. By success rate, that's 74%, 75%, 74%, 69%, and 79%. Stealing bases has been Margot's signature ability throughout his time on the farm, and his 2017 Statcast Sprint Speed (29.3 ft./sec, 10th in MLB) suggests that he still has the athleticism to do it. He could easily double last year's SB total in 2018.
There were also flashes of batting average upside last year. He struck out 20% of the time against a BB% of 6.6%, not bad for a 22-year old rookie known for his speed. His chase rate was league average (29%), and he rarely whiffed (8.6% SwStr%). Perhaps best of all, he was really good at covering the zone (89.2% Z-Contact%). The advanced approach most players need to succeed in the major leagues is already here.
Last year's .309 BABIP wasn't bad, but Margot might be able to beat it. His 23.2% LD% was on the high side, but he had a 24.2% rate over 566 PAs at Triple-A in 2016 and 22.3% over 282 PAs at Double-A the year before. He might legitimately have a line drive swing, portending high BABIPs in the future.
Margot's BABIP on ground balls was just .266 in 2017, presenting another avenue for BABIP growth. He might need to improve his contact quality on grounders (80.7 mph last year) if he wants to reach this upside, but there's a chance.
Margot's FB% will go a long way to determining his future BABIP and power production. His 36.3% FB% last year allowed him to accumulate a few homers, but dinged his BABIP (.104 on fly balls) slightly. At Triple-A in 2016, Margot had a pure speedster's batted ball profile (29.9% FB%). His average will go up if he does that in the majors, but he'll struggle to hit five homers.
Margot's Double-A campaign in 2015 was the exact opposite: a 40.5% FB%. That's where sluggers live, giving Margot an opportunity to compile 20 homers with a batting average around .250. His airborne contact quality metrics were not good last year (90.2 mph average airborne exit velocity, 2.8% rate of Brls/BBE, 11.6% Pull% on fly balls), so fantasy owners should probably root for an increased batting average and the steals that come with it.
Margot is San Diego's leadoff hitter, giving him plenty of runs in front of Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer. That makes Margot elite in SB, solid in batting average and runs, and a Hail Mary for power. That's a player that should easily be selected in the top-150.
Verdict: Champ
Justin Verlander (SP, HOU) ADP: 36.3
Verlander had a great 2017 on the surface, going 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA over 206 IP. The underlying xFIP (4.17) wasn't nearly as kind. His 79.7% strand rate, 11.5% HR/FB, and .271 BABIP against all seem unlikely to repeat, making his xFIP a better projection moving forward.
The best way to sustain an elevated strand rate is to strikeout the world, and 35-year old Verlander isn't that guy anymore. His K% declined dramatically from his 2016 resurgence (28.1% vs. 25.8% last year), while his BB% jumped (6.3% vs. 8.5%). The biggest reason is his fastball, which declined from an elite 12% SwStr% in 2016 to a solid 8.5% mark last season.
Statcast loves Verlander's heat. Its 2,541 RPM spin rate ranked ninth among hurlers who threw at least 100 heaters last year. However, its 2016 spin rate (2,560) was even better, ranking third. It doesn't seem like a huge difference by RPM, but Verlander needs every advantage he can get.
To be fair, Verlander's heater still performed as an elite offering last season. Batters slashed .207/.294/.313 against it despite a predictable 56.1% Zone%. They were flummoxed by its combination of a high FB% (43.5%) and excellent IFFB% (28.2%). The problem isn't really Verlander's fastball, but how often he uses it (58.2% last year). Starters generally need three pitches to succeed, and modern Vrrlander is searching for a second one.
Verlander's slider auditioned for the role last year. He threw it more often (17.1% in 2016 to 21.8% last year) at the expense of his change (8.5% to 4%) and got some Ks out of it (17.6% SwStr%, 38.1% chase rate, 46.6% Zone%). That's a great wipeout offering! Unfortunately, when Verlander hangs it, it really hangs.
Batters had no problem lifting Verlander's slider last year, posting a 38.1% FB% against it. Unlike his heater, flies hit against the slider were quite likely to find the cheap seats (20.8% HR/FB). An elevated HR/FB is common for offerings that aren't meant to be hit, as any airborne batted ball is indicative of a mistake. Verlander actually wants fly balls (42.7% FB% last year), but his slider has no ability to mitigate the damage airborne balls cause. That's really dangerous for an ace's second-best pitch.
Verlander throws a curve that's solid on balls in play (.236/.280/.382) and ineffectual for everything else (8.9% SwStr%, 43.8% Zone%, 29.1% chase). His change is just a show-me pitch at 4% usage. This limited repertoire forces Verlander to live and die with his fastball, a situation that rarely plays out well.
Verlander's BABIP is also at risk for significant regression in 2018. Grounders he allowed posted a BABIP of .217 last season against a career mark of .247. That means that he was either very lucky or the recipient of some excellent defensive support. Houston's middle infield tandem of Jose Altuve (three Defensive Runs Saved) and Carlos Correa (four) are above average defenders, but not great ones. First baseman Yulieski Gurriel (-5) and third baseman Alex Bregman (-3) more than offset them, making the infield below average overall.
Verlander also beat his career BABIPs on flies (.096 vs. .105) and liners (.623 vs. .697) last year. Houston's outfield ranked sixth in defensive efficiency by the Statcast metric Outs Above Average with 11 as a unit, but most of that was the work of projected reserve Jake Marisnick (five OAA). Verlander's 9.8% IFFB% was also his lowest since 2009, suggesting that his BABIP on fly balls should have been higher than his career average.
Verlander could easily pick up a bunch of wins for the defending champions, but nothing else in his profile supports his ADP. His Ks, BBs, and IFFB% are all trending in the wrong direction, while his BABIP and HR/FB seem likely to join them. Verlander is best left to the Astros homer in your league.
Verdict: Chump
