7 years agoJon Gray was one of many Rockies pitchers to be sidelined with an injury last season, but he came back with a vengeance after he recovered from the stress fracture in his foot. Gray has that exciting mix of being a high-strikeout pitcher with a killer offense behind him who’s stuck pitching in the most dangerous location in baseball. Last year, Gray finally seemed to have found an approach that worked for him though. He posted the highest K/BB ratio of his career, and the 25-year-old finally finished a season with an ERA under 4.00. However, going into 2018, he’s still a tempting young starting pitcher who could go either way. There are a host of plusses in the discussion including his 9+ strikeout rate, his dropping walk rate, and his spike in ground balls last year. On the other hand, the biggest negative can’t be avoided, and that’s the park. The other concerning thing is that mixed in amongst all those positives from last season, Gray’s swinging strike rate actually dropped. A lot. In 2016, Gray’s swinging strike rate was 12.1%, but in 2017, it was just 8.8%. Now, swinging strike rate isn’t a foregone conclusion towards success as a massive disappointment like Ricky Nolasco posted an 11.0% while an aging but still very effective Jake Arrieta put up an 8.7%, but it is an indicator that he may be headed towards a correction. With most young pitchers, a correction isn’t necessarily a huge cause for concern, but when a pitcher is having to balance on the precipice that is pitching in Denver, a correction could result in a huge change of fortune. Even with the risk, if owners can get Gray after pick 140, it should be considered a good value.--Billy Stonick - RotoBaller