RADIO
I'm a firm believer that I know very little, and that taking my advice is generally the equivalent of asking someone on the street. I'm not referring to fantasy sports so much as everything else: how to cook a fish, how many quarts are in a cup, how to put together a desk, etc. When it comes to fantasy, specifically, I feel good about giving advice... up to a point, and that point is generally around high-priced pick 'em pools and brackets. Like most fantasy football analysts, I'm big on understanding a trend and seeing if there's enough data to buy into it, the way most fantasy analysts tend to operate. Basically, if we tell you we like Alvin Kamara going into 2017, we expect you to pick him at the end of your draft, not with your first overall pick. Even the biggest fans of certain players or gambles will get dizzy when you buy in that big on a guy. It's just not in our nature!
It's why, when I do bet on things, I look to whatever the money line is, with my thinking being that whoever set it is trying to get 50% of bets on each side of a parameter, and anything dramatically different is just a recipe for losing money. So, as I review the 2017 season among RB busts, I thought I'd look at the prop bets that seem cringe worthy now, using the UK's Paddy Power props. Before you kick yourself too much for the RB's who cost you a shot in 2017, let's revisit what the best gambling minds in the UK predicted first (with the understanding that some of these really are, uh, bad bets even in September.)
Christian McCaffrey wins offensive ROY (along with Panthers 11 wins), 9/1
Christian McCaffrey to have 1000+ rushing yards, 500+ receiving yards, and 8+ touchdowns 25/1
DeMarco Murray or Jay Ajayi score most touchdowns, 10/1
David Johnson, most rushing yards (along with Odell Beckham Jr., most receiving yards), 25/1
Marshawn Lynch, most rushing yards (along with Odell Beckham Jr., most receiving yards), 275/1
Feel better yet? Alright, you miserable bastards, let's get to the busts. Remember, we won't be highlighting anyone who lost their season due to injuries, so let David Johnson live his life damnit.
Editor's Note: Our Premium DFS Research - including DFS cheat sheets, game-by-game breakdowns, expert lineups, and matchup ratings - is only $9.99 through the Super Bowl!
Running Back Busts
Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles
There was no guy who represented more of a disappointment for fantasy owners in 2017 than Jay Ajayi, but it is worth remembering how much of a fantasy landmine he was. Ajayi was generally the sixth RB off the board per his ADP, and finished as the 36th-best player at his position in fantasy. If we consider his ADP to be a representation of where he'd finish the season, the reality represented a -30 swing, basically making him less value than every other team's starting RB in fantasy. For perspective, no other RB in the top-20 who was on the field for at least ten games this season had a -30 value in their ADP. There were a ton of factors fantasy players just couldn't have guessed, but it doesn't change how he was clearly overrated based on what was largely a handful of games in Miami. The upside for someone like Ajayi is that he finally saw double digit touches in Philadelphia in his last three weeks of play, and he's all but guaranteed to see more touchdowns in 2018, compared to the one he saw this year, if he can keep the job.
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
In fairness to Crowell, I think he would've drafted himself in fantasy as well. With glimpses of greatness lining his first full year in the Cleveland Browns offense, anyone who drafted Crowell (ADP of 13) thought that this would be something that would be built on, including Crowell. He ended up seeing slightly more rushing attempts, but less yards for attempt, significantly less touchdowns down all the way to 2, and a significant dip in the passing game. It's been reported by a few outlets that Crowell has no plans to return to Cleveland as long as Hue Jackson is there, so be on the lookout for Crowell's new pasture and see if it will further benefit this talented back before drafting him as an RB2 again.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Compared to the first two RBs, who I would be interested in seeing if I could get at a discount in 2017, I think we all ended up watching the potential end of Doug Martin's football career. Drafted as the 27th overall RB by ADP after a disappointing 2016, anyone who believed in the Buccaneers resurgence found a potential cheap building block in Martin. What they found was a firecracker, not in the way it's often misused by pundits and reporters, but truly a guy who could crackle and spark in the right conditions, but who largely was left without pop or explosion. With a ridiculous 36.9 rushing yards per game, Martin only started in eight of the eleven games he was allowed to compete in, and end up losing much of his work down the stretch to talented players like Peyton Barber. Despite being only 29, I can't imagine starting Doug Martin in fantasy next year.
Paul Perkins, New York Giants
For me, Perkins represents a very specific kind of bust - the one you get when you are trying out a "Zero RB" fantasy draft strategy, find a 23-year old Perkins in front of you, and consider that he could be a big part in a high-flying Giants team in 2017. Of course, for those of you who live in the present and not the past, it's worth remembering that the general consensus was that the Giants would be much better than they were. Paul Perkins was active for 11 games, started four of them, and did not break one hundred yards in total. I don't mean he didn't gain 100 yards in any of those games, I mean he didn't even get 100 total yards for the entire season. The fantasy seasons of a starter that are comparable and are not hampered with injury are reserved specifically for bar trivia.
