NBA Heat Check: Surging Players in Week 10

7 years ago by Leo Choi

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And that’s another week of NBA basketball in the books. As teams jockey for position, players start to fall in and out of the rotation. Rookies start getting comfortable with the intensity of professional basketball and veterans flaunt their experience with consistent play. But on any given night, every player is capable of blowing up for a scintillating career high. That leaves you, a fantasy owner, wondering what to do with that player.

Here’s an analysis to help you decide. We’ll look at some surging players and try to make an educated guess on whether their recent level of play is sustainable or not. Then we’ll suggest some trades that we think offer realistic fair value in return for these hot streaks.

Let’s get started with some players that have been heating up in Week 10.

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NBA Heat Check

Lonzo Ball, PG, Los Angeles Lakers

Manufactured or not, the hype surrounding Lonzo Ball as a draft prospect was palpable. His unconventional shooting form, along with below average athleticism, gave pause to a lot of his believers. But his Curry-like ability to pull up from range, his size, and his court vision led the Lakers to select him with the second overall pick. The hype came crashing down in the beginning of the season as he laid brick after brick, shooting an abysmal 30.9% from the field through his first 20 games. But Monday night, he posted a very respectable stat line of 16 points on 50% shooting, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. That performance capped off an impressive five game streak where he scored 12.2 points per game on 46.2% from the field, including 2 threes per game, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks.

Lonzo may have his ups and downs, but it seems like the Lakers believe he can be the next face of the franchise. They’re running him out for 33.5 minutes per game. He maintains decent fantasy value through his counting stats which have been largely consistent over the season. His rebounds and assists have hovered around seven each, and he gets more than one steal and block per game. With his shooting trending upwards, his points should also start to increase. But he only ranks eighth in usage percentage on the Lakers so his ceiling as a scorer isn’t too high. The real killer for his owners has been his percentages, which used to be so bad that he could lose those categories all by himself. But now that his shooting is improving, there’s reason to be excited. Nevertheless, owners tired from his poor start might want to trade for more consistent players like Dario Saric or Kris Dunn.

Mike Scott, PF, Washington Wizards

Mike Scott is a name many people probably haven’t heard outside of television shows. But he’s been able to string together a couple of good games for the Wizards. Most recently, he posted 24 points on an impressive 11 of 15 from the field, with 2 three-pointers and 4 rebounds. That game followed a five-game surge where he averaged 16.2 points per game on 69.4% shooting, with 2.0 threes, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1 steal. He’s not a complete stranger to the spotlight, considering he had 21 double digit point totals during his 2015-2016 season with the Hawks, including 17 points in a playoff game. But his shooting percentages are almost certainly unsustainable. His career three-point percentage is 34.4%, compared to this season’s of 42.4%. And it’s not like he’s taking easy shots either. Only 17.8% of his shots come from within three feet of the hoop. Regardless, he’s an interesting pick up while he stays hot from the field and continues to get minutes—both of which he hasn’t been able to do consistently through his six-year career.

Most of his minutes seem to be coming at the expense of Markieff Morris, who’s been underperforming almost all season. They have similar usage rates, but Markieff’s minutes will most likely start to trend back up along with his level of play, considering he proved himself to be a valuable starter last year. Mike Scott likely doesn’t hold much trade value, but you might be able to trade him for high risk players like Mario Hezonja or Isaiah Canaan.

Taurean Prince, SF, Atlanta Hawks

Owners of Taurean Prince have been treated to a bit of a roller coaster ride through the season. The second-year player started off hot and his ownership quickly increased. Through his first 10 games, he averaged 14.3 points on 44.5% shooting. Then his performance dipped for the next 10 games, where he averaged only 10.9 points on 42.4% shooting. But finally, he seems to be back on track. Through his most recent ten games, he’s averaged 14.4 points on 47.6% shooting. Now that his shooting woes are over, he’s had two 24-point games within the span of his most recent four games. On Monday, he posted 24 points, 4 three-pointers, and 7 rebounds. His threes, rebounds, and steals have actually been very consistent over the season so owners should be able to continue relying on his contributions in those categories.

Taurean is a promising second-year player on a rebuilding Hawks team, which means that he’ll continue getting all the playing time he can handle. He’s averaging 31.1 minutes per game, which is second on the Hawks behind Dennis Schroder. He’s also amazingly featured in the Hawks’ top nine most played lineups. The coaching staff obviously believes he’s trending upward and the 23-year-old should only improve as the season progresses. He doesn’t have name recognition but he’s a solid pick to round out your roster, with limited downside and high upside. He’s been decently consistent outside of his shooting, but his recent play gives him value similar to Jamal Murray or John Collins, though the former might be a bit of a reach.