X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Risers and Fallers for Week 15: Buy or Sell?

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano and Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. Just because there’s no baseball being played right now doesn’t mean the analyses stop! In fact, it means they get churned out even more because what else do we have to do with our lives?

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you swing the best deals and spot the best pickups before your competition. We'll do the hard work for you, looking at the underlying metrics that influence a hitter's power: fly-ball, pull, hard-hit rates and exit velocity. Consider buying these week 15 power risers and selling these week 15 power fallers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Nelson Cruz - (OF, SEA):

This name isn’t likely to surprise, as the photogenic All-Star has already hit three homers with 11 RBI in just eight July contests after hitting only two round-trippers in the entire month of June (25 games). His fly-ball rate had sunk to 33.8 percent last month, but now it sits at 54.5 percent alongside a 54.6 percent pull rate and 54.6 percent hard-hit rate. 54 just might be his lucky number!

While that mark will surely stabilize a bit toward the low 40s as the month plays out, it’s definitely encouraging to see a bat of his caliber show flashes of outstanding power like this. I'd expect this to lead into a solid second half that sees his lower 17.2 percent HR/FB rate on the season continue to rise toward his mark of 26.2 percent last season (30.3 percent in '15).

Willson Contreras - (C/OF, CHC):

Over the first two and a half months of the 2017 season, Contreras socked just five homers with a .239/.306/.381 slash line in 196 plate appearances. There wasn’t much hope as he hit June’s mid-point without a homer since May 28. Then he socked a pair of doubles on both June 16 and 18 to jumpstart a 22-game stretch (82 PAs) that has seen him hit .315 with six homers.

The 25-year-old’s bat is heating up with the weather, as he’s notched a sweet 38.6 percent hard-hit rate, 40 percent fly-ball rate and 49 percent pull rate over this recent surge. The pull rate is nothing new, but the hard-hit rate is up eight percentage points and the fly-ball rate has jumped 14 percentage points, as he’s seeing both his exit velocity and launch angles creep up toward optimal levels.

Todd Frazier - (1B/3B, CWS):

While still hitting a lowly .213 on the season and entering the All-Star break having gone a disappointing 1-for-9 in a three-game series at Coors Field, the Toddfather looked like a new man in June and just may carry that forward here. Frazier ripped eight homers in June after hitting just seven between April and May combined, but he also went from hitting .181 to hitting .261. One is terrible, and one isn’t going to hurt anybody.

He’s already knocked three doubles and a homer in eight July games, with six walks to six strikeouts in 33 PAs. But we want to be sure that the power metrics are still there. Well, his fly-ball rate is at 55.6 percent in July, his pull rate is at 50 percent and the hard-hit rate sits at 38.9 percent (35.7 percent in June). He’s ticking off all of the boxes right now, and if he manages to keep up the contact and cull those strikeouts then all the better for us.

Carlos Correa - (SS, HOU):

Correa has been going cor-razy lately, but I’m specifically picking him out here because of what his power is supported by. We all know how he hit just two homers with a poor .233 average in April, and it’s been a nonstop joyride ever since. Despite hitting seven homers in both May and June only to open July with four dingers in seven games (sheesh), he’s been relying more and more on each fly ball to get out of the park as the season has gone on.

The young slugger’s fly-ball rate has gone from 39.1 percent in April down to 26.6 percent in June (20.8 percent in July so far), as his HR/FB rate sat at a lofty 33.3 percent last month. It’s 80 percent in July. Yes, only one of his five fly balls has failed to leave the park. Part of that comes from owning a hard-hit rate above 40 percent, but don’t expect the party to continue at quite this rate -- he simply isn’t showing the swing for it.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion - (1B, CLE):

Encarnacion took his parrot for seven strolls around the bases in June thanks to his fly-ball rate receiving a 17-percentage-point shot in the arm. While his early July rate sits at 44 percent, his pull rate is down at 18.5 percent and his hard-hit rate is at 26 percent -- down 10 percentage points from both May and June. Things should even out as more games get played, but the bottom line is that so far his bat hasn’t been getting around on the ball like it was in June and his performance is rightfully suffering as a result. I have faith he’ll be okay, but I also don’t want folks thinking he’s still drilling it with the same authority and simply getting unlucky.

Ryon Healy - (1B/3B, OAK):

Since clubbing two homers on June 17, Healy has been mired in a 13-for-67 (.194) slump over his last 18 games. He’s hit two homers and one double in that span with four walks against 22 strikeouts, though plate discipline has never really been his thing. What’s happened is he’s suddenly driving the ball into the dirt (58.7 percent ground-ball rate) with a poor 23.9 percent hard-hit rate fueling said gopher-thumpers. Compare that to his first half of June, when he hit grounders at a 39.1 percent clip alongside a healthy 43.5 percent fly-ball rate and robust 52.2 percent hard-hit rate. I think this is more of a rookie streak, but someone with his propensity for whiffing (26.7 percent strikeout rate on the season) can get into trouble like this pretty easily when their swing is even just the tiniest bit off.

Matt Kemp - (OF, ATL):

Kemp was able to avoid a second trip to the disabled list this season after his left hamstring tightened up on him on June 14 -- it was the right one that sent him to the DL in April -- but maybe he should’ve taken the time anyway. Something is not right here for the 32-year-old, as he’s hit just .176 (12-for-68) with one homer and two doubles in 19 games since that tightness sprung up.

It isn’t just the results, I promise you. While he’s still pulling the ball 40 percent of the time, his hard-hit rate of 22 percent alongside a 20 percent fly-ball rate is just not going to cut it. That hard-hit rate sat at 38 percent prior to June’s midpoint and one out of every three batted-balls was being lifted. This is really bad, so hopefully, the All-Star break gave his body enough downtime to feel comfortable again. Keep an eye on his swing plane and whether he’s getting any lift on the ball in the early going.

Addison Russell - (SS, CHC):

Remember when Russell went 13-for-34 (.382) with four doubles and four homers over a 10-game span from June 11-22? Well, I don’t because he’s gone just 7-for-39 (.179) since with a lonely double standing as his only extra-base hit over that span. He had enjoyed a lovely 54 percent hard-hit rate over that little surge, but it’s fallen back to 30.8 percent. Couple that with a below-average 26.9 percent fly-ball rate (down from 34.6 percent) and a 34.6 percent pull rate (down from 50 percent), and one can see that his bat is indeed lost.

That hot streak also relied on four of his nine fly balls leaving the yard, so he had some luck in there as well. What’s most interesting is how his average exit velocity is actually up on the whole -- from 87.2 mph to 87.6 mph -- but it’s actually down on balls struck in the air. His fly-ball/line-drive AEV has sunk from 92.3 mph to 90.9 mph, which helps explain how his barrels per batted-ball rate has sunk from 9.3 percent to 5.7 percent. Move along.

 

More Risers and Fallers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Agustín Ramírez12 mins ago

Agustin Ramirez Headed To Majors
Luis Arraez1 hour ago

Carted Off In First Inning
Jayden Daniels2 hours ago

Focused On Improving In 2025
Isaiah Stewart3 hours ago

Iffy For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon3 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Game 2
Gabriel Vilardi3 hours ago

To Remain Out For Game 2
Logan Thompson4 hours ago

Could Be An Option Monday
Martin Fehérváry4 hours ago

Martin Fehervary Iffy For Game 1
Tanner Jeannot4 hours ago

Remains Week-To-Week, Out For Game 1
Tyler Glasnow4 hours ago

Exits Sunday's Start Early With Lower Leg Cramps
Zeev Buium4 hours ago

Makes NHL Debut In Playoff Opener
Anthony Stolarz4 hours ago

Makes First Career Postseason Start
Oliver Ekman-Larsson4 hours ago

Good To Go Sunday
Zach Agnos7 hours ago

Promoted To Major Leagues
Victor Vodnik7 hours ago

Placed On 15-Day Injured List
Josh Lowe7 hours ago

Takes 20 Dry Swings
Blake Treinen7 hours ago

Dealing With Low-Grade Forearm Injury
Jack Leiter7 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez8 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Sitting On Sunday
Brayan Bello8 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
J.T. Realmuto8 hours ago

Getting Sunday Off
Chase Meidroth8 hours ago

Scratched With Thumb Injury
Ben Rice8 hours ago

Not Starting On Sunday
Wyatt Langford8 hours ago

Activated Off Injured List
9 hours ago

Washington Hosts Tre Harris
NFL9 hours ago

Will Johnson Visits With Seattle
NFL9 hours ago

Devon Key Sticking With Denver
Griffin Conine10 hours ago

Placed On 60-Day Injured List
Sean Murphy10 hours ago

Not In Sunday's Lineup
Brandon Marsh10 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Oneil Cruz10 hours ago

Sitting On Sunday
Cody Poteet10 hours ago

Promoted To Major Leagues
Shohei Ohtani10 hours ago

Activated From Paternity List
Yegor Sharangovich12 hours ago

Recovering From Broken Foot
Corbin Carroll12 hours ago

Stays Hot Versus Cubs
Rasmus Andersson12 hours ago

Played With Broken Fibula
Semyon Varlamov13 hours ago

Expects To Be Ready For Next Season
Owen Power13 hours ago

Avoids Surgery
Rasmus Ristolainen13 hours ago

May Miss Start Of Next Season
Evander Kane13 hours ago

Close To Being Cleared For Action
Kyle Connor13 hours ago

Caps Off Three-Point Effort With Game-Winner
Nathan MacKinnon13 hours ago

Leads Avalanche To Game 1 Victory
Max Pacioretty1 day ago

Available For Playoffs
Jake McCabe1 day ago

Available For Sunday's Game 1
Oliver Bjorkstrand1 day ago

Will Not Play In Round 1
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Logs Full Practice Saturday
Jonathan Drouin1 day ago

Available For Game 1
Miro Heiskanen1 day ago

Upgraded To Day-To-Day
Jaylen Brown1 day ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Irv Smith1 day ago

Houston Re-Signs Irv Smith Jr.
Ja Morant2 days ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams2 days ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis2 days ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.2 days ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince2 days ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL2 days ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart2 days ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson2 days ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura2 days ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves2 days ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL2 days ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić2 days ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James2 days ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard2 days ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
NFL2 days ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant2 days ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Lauri Markkanen2 days ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL2 days ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Bennedict Mathurin2 days ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Pascal Siakam2 days ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Tyrese Haliburton2 days ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham2 days ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
NFL2 days ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith2 days ago

Sticking With Texans
NFL2 days ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch2 days ago

Returning To Cardinals
Mark Andrews2 days ago

Could Be Traded Soon
NFL2 days ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
2 days ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Rome Odunze2 days ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
NFL2 days ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
James Cook2 days ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Jake Tonges3 days ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos3 days ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Lucas Glover4 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger4 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka4 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry4 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris4 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland5 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns5 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai5 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre5 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge5 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap5 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley5 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay5 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa5 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski6 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes6 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett6 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler6 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA6 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell6 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva6 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes6 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF