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Power Risers and Fallers for Week 9: Buy or Sell?

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. We've hit the two-month mark and are officially approaching the deep end of the 2017 season.

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. We'll do the hard work for you, looking at the underlying metrics that influence a hitter's power: fly-ball, pull, hard-hit rates and exit velocity.  Consider buying these week 9 power risers and selling these week 9 power fallers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Power Risers

Shin-soo Choo - (OF, TEX):

Choo has beaten out his 2016 pace by a hair, tying his seven homers from last season with 14 fewer plate appearances (and holding nine more RBI with an average that sits 16 points higher!) These things aren’t much and he certainly doesn’t have the same clout that these other names do, but merely discussing buzzy players gets tiresome and doesn’t typically provide much of an edge. Meanwhile, Choo has hit safely in seven of his last eight games and gone yard in three of his last five.

May saw him up his hard-hit rate by nine percent alongside a 15-percent jump in his pull rate, though the fly-ball rate actually dropped by three percent to a mere 25.7 percent. This man has topped 20 homers four times in his career -- as recently as 2015 -- and is “only” 34 years old. Mix in a potential for 10 steals and you’ve got a sneaky 80/20/80/10/.260 bat that’s available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Albert Pujols - (1B, LAA):

Pujols has ramped things up in his pursuit of career homer No. 600, as he’s homered in three of his last seven games alongside an eight-game hitting streak. He’s hit .333 (14-for-42) with the three homers and 11 RBI over his last 11 games. In that little timeframe he’s pulled the ball a whopping 60 percent of the time alongside a 50 percent hard-hit rate and 44 percent fly-ball rate. So, yeah, he might just be selling out a bit. Considering his overall 90.3 percent zone-contact rate is still well above board then we can’t really complain. Go get history, buddy!

Steven Souza Jr. - (OF, TB):

Souza’s overall 10 homers and career-high .231 ISO through 216 plate appearances are lovely sights, but one has to wonder at the stopping power of his 25 percent HR/FB rate. While it’s true that the 28-year-old has been much more selective at the dish in 2017, his actual batted-ball rates are a teensy step behind his 2016 marks. It’s not much, but it really doesn’t justify a 6.5 percent bump in HR/FB rate either.

That said, he brought his fly-ball rate up six percent and his pull rate up five percent in May, while turning 3.3 percent of his April soft-contact rate into medium contact. These are largely incremental gains, but they speak to his ISO improving to .250 in May after checking in at .213 in April. Of course, he hit just .216 against April’s wild .330 mark, but we’re just discussing power here. With 15 of his 29 batted balls since May 16 checking in at 100-plus mph, we’re going to say his pop is doing okay.

Hunter Renfroe - (OF, SD):

While Renfroe’s overall 87.9 mph average exit velocity isn’t going to dazzle anyone, he has improved things by hitting at least one ball at 99 mph or greater in each game from May 14-27. That said, his highest exit velo in three games since has been 95.2 mph, which actually left the yard for a grand slam.

No one’s going to nitpick three games, especially with a homer in one of them, but it’s worth noting that his streak was ruined all the same. While San Diego’s lineup isn’t producing much around him (which will touch on more intimately in a bit), Renfroe himself should vie for 25-plus homers in 2017. It’d be nice if we could get 2016’s elite contact rates, but that appears highly unlikely.

 

Power Fallers

Jonathan Villar - (2B/3B/SS, MIL):

Villar hasn’t homered since May 14, nor plated a run or swiped a bag since May 23. His overall line of five homers, 26 runs scored, 24 RBI and 12 steals will still amount to being startable in 12-team leagues, but his .211/.283/.322 slash line is just so gross. On the one hand, he’s striking out nearly one-third of the time. On the other hand, he’s also driving the ball into the ground as if a gopher stole his Lucky Charms.

While his 55.6 percent ground-ball rate last season worked for him, that mark going up to 64.1 percent in 2017 puts more pressure on each fly ball to leave the yard in order for him to retain value. Well, since May 15 he’s been pounding the ball into the ground at a 79.3 percent rate. Throw in a 40-percent soft contact rate over that span and you’ve got your answers as to whether he’s been getting unlucky or has just been stinking. Hint: he’s stinking. He has the pedigree to turn it around, but this is a terrible look.

Wil Myers - (1B/OF, SD):

At the end of May 16, Myers was triple slashing .293/.330/.579 with 11 homers and four steals through his first 176 plate appearances of 2017. Since then, he’s been a bum. In those 13 games (54 PAs), he’s gone just 8-for-47 (.170) with zero homers, three RBI and 20 strikeouts. His .296 BABIP over that span isn’t ungodly, but that .021 ISO is just generating nothing.

To be fair, he did muscle up for a 387-foot out by hitting a ball 101 mph with a 25.6 degree launch angle. Oh, and on May 31 he got robbed at the wall on a 97.5 mph shot to dead center. Overall, he’s 1-for-7 with a single on balls hit more than 310 feet since May 16. So, yeah. There’s some poor luck at play here, but he’s lacking that extra oomph that led to so many homers in the early going. At least he appears to be knocking on the door, sort of.

Jay Bruce - (1B/OF, NYM):

Bruce went 0-for-4 today (June 1) with two strikeouts, furthering his recent slip into Slump World. Now 11-for-66 (.167) over his last 17 games, the slugger has hit just two homers with nine RBI thanks to a fly-ball rate that’s dropped 10 percent, a pull rate that’s plummeted 11 percent and a hard-hit rate that’s down eight percent.

The trifecta of power-sucking is present and it is the devil. It’d be unfair to not acknowledge that he hit a ball 406 feet for an out on May 17, but by-and-large he had been slogging through much of May. His paltry 9.5 percent HR/FB rate over this most recent stretch has been largely earned by way of lesser hitting, but he’s also no strangers to streaks. Bench him for now and hope the turnaround comes soon.

Jed Lowrie - (2B, OAK):

Lowrie has definitely outperformed expectations in 2017 with his .292/.360/.469 slash line and 32 runs scored in just 51 games. His .177 ISO is great to see after it crashed to .059 across 369 rather useless PAs last season. To be fair here, all three of these power metrics are down just 3-5 percent over the past two weeks so it isn’t a crisis or anything. But it’s worth noting for those who may be looking to him for some AL-only relief, especially with how hot Chad Pinder’s been. I think Lowrie will be a fine play for as long as his health holds up if he can hold onto his hitting third in this powerful lineup.

 

More Risers and Fallers

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kirill Kaprizov1 hour ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Auston Matthews1 hour ago

May Return To Maple Leafs Lineup Next Week
Max Domi1 hour ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Jakub Vrana2 hours ago

Sits As Healthy Scratch Saturday
Alex Pietrangelo2 hours ago

Remains Out Saturday
William Eklund2 hours ago

A Game-Time Call For Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen2 hours ago

Moves To First Line Saturday
Darnell Nurse2 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers5 hours ago

Could Be Placed On IR Or Benched
Jordan Eberle8 hours ago

To Miss At Least Three Months
Matthew Knies8 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Owen Power9 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Friday
John Gibson9 hours ago

Busy In Overtime Loss
Connor Hellebuyck9 hours ago

Sharp in Friday's Victory
Kyle Connor9 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Friday's Victory
Noah Fant17 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy19 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
19 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
19 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
19 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski20 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
20 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May20 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler20 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski20 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson20 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride20 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid20 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic21 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope21 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.21 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer21 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India21 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann21 hours ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig21 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker21 hours ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard21 hours ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons22 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant22 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant22 hours ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart22 hours ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton22 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Yves Missi22 hours ago

Will Not Play On Friday
Stephen Curry22 hours ago

Available Versus Pelicans
Scoot Henderson22 hours ago

Absent On Friday
Rashod Bateman23 hours ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn23 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR23 hours ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle23 hours ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson23 hours ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York23 hours ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers24 hours ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish24 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy24 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson24 hours ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes24 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Ladd McConkey1 day ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb1 day ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta1 day ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson1 day ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith1 day ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson1 day ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison1 day ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins1 day ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans1 day ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci1 day ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale1 day ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet1 day ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang1 day ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Carlos Ulberg2 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
2 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale3 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal3 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English3 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole3 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
4 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers4 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
4 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri4 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

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Viviane Araujo5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
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Extends His Win Streak To Six

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