RADIO
Good afternoon, Rotoballers! We have a lovely 14 game schedule on deck tonight with tons of elite and mid-tier pitching options to choose from. It's also a Coors and Coors-Light (Arizona) slate, so we have a lot to navigate.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/09/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays.
Let's get to the good stuff, shall we?
Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox versus Wily Peralta
Wily Peralta is decidedly not good. Thus far in 2017, it's been the same old story for Wily Peralta that we saw in years past, as he's already allowed a very attractive (for Red Sox stackers) opponent wOBA of .411 and an opponent ISO of .356. It's important to understand just how huge those numbers are, and that this game is taking place in Miller Park, which is well suited for numerous home runs - as is Peralta's 1.41 HR/9 this season. Vegas happens to like the Red Sox quite a bit in this one as well. They currently have the second highest projected run total of all the games not taking place at Coors Field, sitting at 4.9. That number is more attractive to me seeing as it was 4.6 this morning and the +0.3 is the biggest line movement of any game this morning. And as for the Sox lineup, there are a number of ways you could put something together that is potentially lucrative. My favorite of the bunch are Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr, Mookie Betts and Chris Young. All of the aforementioned Sox outfielders possess ISO splits over .200 against right-handed pitching in 2017.
Houston Astros versus Bartolo Colon
Everyone knows the Coors game by now. On days when there's a home game in Denver, those two teams are in play for stacks about 99% of the time (if not more). But it's not all that helpful to point that out, so I threw them in my 'also consider'. You want leverage in tournaments? Fade Coors and find stacks that have high potential. (If you're looking for a cash game stack, I wouldn't suggest fading Coors entirely - that's merely a GPP suggestion). Let's talk Astros. Right now, no team in the Main slate (outside of Coors' action) has a higher run projection than the 5.1 the Astros currently possess, and that's due to a number of factors. For one, this game is taking place in Houston, and in 2017, it has been a top five home run producing stadium, falling just behind Coors and one ahead of Angels Stadium. Bartolo Colon has been getting rocked lately, too. This season, he's allowed 1.2 HR/9, his strikeouts are down (5.8 K/9) and he's allowed an overall opponent wOBA over .300. Statcast data doesn't paint a kind picture for Bartolo either, as he's allowed a 48% hard hit rate over the last two weeks with an exit velocity average of 94 miles per hour. The Astros have quite the talented lineup, so you'll have your picks of how you'd like to align your 4-5 Astros hitters. Personally, my favorites are Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve.
Also Consider: Colorado Rockies versus John Lackey
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Max Scherzer - SP, at BAL ($11,600)
Max has a 33% K rate this year and he's posted a 36% K rate against this Orioles squad over the years. His 0.9 WHIP and 11+ K/9 are elite figures, and the fact that this Orioles' lineup strikes out a lot gives him good upside. He's currently listed as a -150 favorite in this mid-Atlantic battle.
Charlie Morton - SP, vs ATL ($7,800)
Morton has been cruising this season, posting a 26% K rate and he's exceeded value in 4 of last 5 starts. Atlanta offense is weak and their projected lineup owns a 25% K rate. He possesses good upside at a mid-tier price. He's a little risky in cash - as anyone in this price range generally is - but he might be worth a flier if there are bats you're in love with or would like to stack the Chicago-Colorado matchup.
Justin Verlander - SP, at ARI ($9,500)
Verlander is my favorite GPP option of the night, for a few reasons. There is certainly risk attached, but I think owning him in GPP's tonight gives great leverage. His K numbers (10+ K/9) are elite and he gets a sub-par offense that strikes out a lot (26+%) in a stadium that could scare away a lot of potential owners on FanDuel. Arizona has been abysmal this season against right-handed pitching as well, and Verlander has been known to throw deep into games, giving him a greater chance for 6+ strikeouts, a quality start, and the potential win.
Also Consider: Drew Pomeranz - SP, at MIL ($8,300) - GPP only
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Evan Gattis - C, vs ATL ($3,500)
A really fair price for the upside you're getting. Colon has been hit tremendously hard and Gattis has a knack for destroying RHP - .266 ISO, .525 slg% splits this season. This game is also being played in the fifth-most home run friendly park.
Edwin Encarnacion - 1B, at TOR ($3,100)
Excellent value in this price tier. Should pick on mediocre pitcher, great lineup order value, and strong splits to boot - .388 wOBA, .299 ISO. There is also the revenge game narrative in play here as he faces his former squad.
Daniel Murphy - 2B, at BAL ($4,200)
You know who loves giving up gopher balls to left-handed hitters? Ubaldo Jimenez sure does. Normally this pick isn't a risk, but Murphy has been a little cold and I'm only willing to spend up on him in tournaments. His wOBA split north of .400 is elite. If you're looking for a cash game option or can't afford Murphy, then Jose Altuve is a great alternative.
Zack Cozart - SS, vs NYY ($3,200)
Cozart is hitting the ball hard (36% hard-hit rate) and with some lift. Tonight he gets an attractive date with CC Sabathia, who has an opponent ISO allowed of .250 in last 2 weeks. The ballpark here certainly helps, and he does generally hit high in the order, which adds to his appeal.
Kris Bryant - 3B, at COL ($5,100)
Bryant has been a destroyer of southpaw worlds this season and gets a major park upgrade. Check out these splits - .472 wOBA, .365 ISO - and tell me how you could possibly resist?
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Albert Almora - OF, at COL ($3,100)
Coors Field exposure at this price point is like stealing. Almora has had tons of success against left-handed potching this season, posting a - .425 wOBA, .313 ISO. Due to his spot late in the order, he is best suited for tournaments.
Adam Duvall - OF, vs NYY ($3,700)
Duvall has big time home run upside against a pitcher who has struggled to keep ball in the park. Duvall's power splits are mighty impressive -.334 ISO splits against southpaws this season - and this is a great park for him to do some more damage in.
Andrew Benintendi - OF, at MIL ($4,100)
There is lots to love about an early-middle of the order hitter with a nearly .400 wOBA split with pop to boot. The roof is closed tonight at Miller Park, so no weather concerns and that erases what was a decent strength wind blowing in from center.
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