RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~154
CURRENT ADP: ~175
ANALYSIS: You know him, you love him and you’re ready for him to truly break out. Paxton battled through a couple of injuries to come back and carry fantasy owners to championships with his 29.2% strikeout rate and minuscule 3.3 percent BB rate (25.8 percent K-BB rate was fifth best in the MLB) that led to the third-best FIP (2.06) of the month. If J-Pax is able to stay on the mound and deliver at least 180 innings in 2017 then he could flirt with 190-200 strikeouts. If he can hone his command of the zone and cut into last season’s .347 BABIP and 66.3 percent strand rate, then he could flirt with the 2.80 FIP or 3.35 xFIP that sat behind the 3.79 ERA.
While some of his profile had painted him as a bit of a Robbie Ray or Michael Pineda, in other words: all peripherals but not execution, he has a leg up on the other two with his control. This control could serve as a cornerstone for command to flourish upon. While his NFBC ADP of 172.75 isn’t cheap, this is an arm that has shown it has ace potential in it. And he’s done so a bit more loudly than the others, so the price tag will reflect that.
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