Player values are constantly moving targets in daily leagues. A high profile player can put together a couple of big games and see his price tag skyrocket. Likewise, a couple of bad games can lead a player's stock to plummet. The correlation isn't always immediate, leading to some discrepancies in value. Savvy DFS players can take advantage of falling values and avoid inflated prices to find the best value on a given night in the hopes of increased success. In this article, I will identify players whose anticipated value relative to their current price is on the rise, making them desirable targets. I will also name players whose value is dipping below their cost, making them players to fade.
Note: I will only be selecting players who are owned in at least 75% of Yahoo! leagues. Graphs are taken from SportingCharts.com's NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker and are indicative of values on 12/26/16.
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FanDuel Value Risers - Week 10
Al Horford (PF/C, BOS) - Horford's FanDuel price peaked at $8000 on 12/20 and has started to take a downward turn since then. After a poor shooting night in Indiana on the 22nd, Horford has bounced back nicely. He filled the stat sheet on Christmas day with 15 points, seven boards, five assists, three steals and two blocks. He is averaging career highs in blocks and assists, so he should continue to provide good value even if his salary climbs again.
Jrue Holiday (PG, NO) - Holiday is a constant threat to miss time, but when he's in the lineup he is usually up to the task for providing solid value. Holiday scored 22 and 23 in consecutive games last week before going cold against Dallas on Monday. He is steadily outperforming his price tag and daily players shouldn't be scared away from him because of time missed earlier in the year.
Jimmy Butler (SG/SF, CHI) - Butler has been extremely consistent throughout the season, but a pair of down games in mid-December, especially a bomb against Milwaukee, sent his salary on a downward trajectory. Despite the solid production, he hasn't always been worth the lofty price. Now it seems his valuation is evening out. A soft schedule in the coming week, including a chance for redemption against the Bucks, makes him a worthy play.
Julius Randle (PF, LAL) - Randle's brief hiatus didn't affect his value much, but his huge game following his return certainly helped it spike. Randle went 13-7-8 on Christmas, posting one of his better games in the past month. The Larry Nance injury should ensure that Randle has a big role on offense in the coming weeks.
Devin Booker (SG, PHO) - Booker is on a roll lately, posting games of 31, 23, and 28 points in the last 10 days. As a long-distance shooter, there will be ups and downs throughout the season. You should be ready to take advantage when a player like him is hot, for however long it lasts.
FanDuel Value Fallers - Week 10
Joel Embiid (C, PHI) - The Process is finally playing on a nightly basis, much to the delight of DFS players. The scoring and shot-blocking are there consistently, but so are the turnovers. Embiid gave the ball away eight times on Monday and is averaging almost four TO per game since his last DNP. He will give you a fair amount of points, but you're going to pay for it, as his salary has steadily increased throughout the season. Embiid is talented, but still too risky for daily players to count on.
Nikola Vucevic (PF/C, ORL) - The big man is no longer a focal point for Orlando with Serge Ibaka around. He has played around 27 minutes the last three games and has scored a total of 34 points in those games. Trade rumors are now swirling around Vucevic which may not do wonders for his game in the near future, even if it helps his value in the long run.
Eric Gordon (SG, HOU) - The word is out about the man who has more three-pointers than Steph Curry this season. Gordon has been hot all year it seems, but he isn't quite the value he used to be. Gordon is a reliable SG who is averaging 25.6 FanDuel PPG. It's not that he suddenly isn't worth playing; his salary has simply caught up to his point production.
Zach LaVine (PG/SG, MIN) - You have a 40 point game and the market will adjust accordingly. Lavine's price had already started rising, but now it would seem he may be overpriced at $6,500. He is seeing major minutes at the off-guard spot, but his 3/2 assist/turnover ratio certainly limits his potential. Don't spend on LaVine unless you anticipate a big scoring night.