Happy Holidays RotoBallers! In this article I will be taking a look at some of my favorite FantasyAces DFS lineups plays for the Week 16 slate.
These picks are based on a multitude of factors including matchup, talent, recent performance, and pricing on Fantasy Aces. Let's get to the picks!
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Quarterback Plays for Fantasy Aces
Phillip Rivers (@ CLE, $6,800)
Rivers finds himself in a great spot as the Chargers get set to take on the 0-14 Browns, owners of the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA metrics on Football Outsiders. While the Browns are equally bad against the run and the pass, the Chargers are likely to be without Melvin Gordon again this weekend, meaning the rushing workload will be split between Kenneth Farrow and Ronnie Hillman. This means the Chargers may elect to lean on the passing game a little more than usual. The weather isn't supposed to be too bad, at least for Cleveland in December, as forecasts expect it to be around 40 degrees with no snow. The Browns have been very giving to opposing quarterbacks, having allowed multiple touchdowns in all but three games this year. Rivers has a high floor and a good amount of upside for this contest, yet is cheaper than six other quarterbacks on Aces. He is a fantastic play for tournaments and cash games.
Blake Bortles (@ TEN, $5,300)
Bortles has not played well at all this season, throwing 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Despite his struggles, Bortles is worth considering as a second quarterback on Aces, especially in tournaments. The Titans have been getting flamed by opposing quarterbacks this season, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Bortles is extremely cheap and has as much multi-touchdown upside as he has all season. He is more of an option in tournaments as I am not ready to trust him in cash games, but he could very well finish this game with over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Running Back Plays for Fantasy Aces
Jordan Howard (vs. WAS, $5,100)
If you can afford to fit David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, and/or Ezekiel Elliot then you are going to want to do that as those three have been rock-solid this season. Everyone knows to play them, however, so I thought I would take a look at a few runners who are cheaper and have great matchups. Howard has been fantastic since taking over lead back duties for the Bears. The rookie is averaging 5.02 yards per carry and has shown the ability to help in the passing game, catching nine passes in his last four games. The Redskins sport one of the least effective run defenses in the league, ranking 26th in DVOA, and are fresh off of getting diced up by Jonathan Stewart on Monday night. Howard should be able to run all over a Washington defense coming off a very short week in this game.
Jay Ajayi (@ BUF, $4,850)
A lot of people are likely to be off of Ajayi after he has picked up just 99 combined rushing yards over his past two contests. Of course, those two games came against two great run defenses in Arizona and the Jets. Ajayi should be able to find more room to operate against the Bills this weekend. Buffalo has been bleeding production to opposing running backs this season, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position while also ranking 31st in run defense DVOA. It is unlikely that we see Matt Moore pass for four touchdowns (ever) again, putting Ajayi in a perfect bounce-back spot this weekend.
Wide Receiver Plays for Fantasy Aces
Mike Evans (@ NO, $5,800)
Rostering Evans over the past three weeks has been frustrating as the Buccaneers have inexplicably started looking away from their star wide receiver. The Bucs just saw the Saints two weeks ago, with Evans catching just four balls for 42 yards. Recency bias will surely help serve to keep his ownership down, but don't forget that the Saints have really struggled against opposing passing attacks this season, ranking just 28th in DVOA. Evans has been a little too inconsistent to trust in cash games, but he's a great play in tournaments as he's caught multiple touchdowns in three games this year.
Michael Crabtree (vs. IND, $4,850)
Crabtree and the Oakland passing matchup draws a favorable matchup against a leaky Colts secondary in a game that should be one of the highest-scoring affairs on the slate. Vegas has the over/under set at 53 points and this game has serious shootout potential with two potentially explosive offenses going against each other. Crabtree continues to be overshadowed by his higher profile teammate, Amari Cooper. Never mind the fact that Crabtree is Oakland's preferred red zone option, seeing 24 looks in the red zone compared to Cooper's 16. By the way, Crabtree's 24 red zone looks ranks him second in the NFL, behind only Jordy Nelson. Crabtree is safe for cash and tournaments this weekend.
Tight End Play for Fantasy Aces
Greg Olsen (vs. ATL, $4,550)
After suffering through a lull in the middle of the season, Olsen has started to come to life over the past two games. The veteran tight end has 172 yards on 10 catches over that span as Carolina's offense is starting to play a little better. Look for him to stay hot against a Falcons pass defense that has been quite generous to opposing tight ends this season. Atlanta is allowing tight ends to score the fourth-most fantasy points per game this year. Olsen also comes at a nice discount this week as he's just the eighth-most expensive tight end on Aces. Also, if you are looking to save at the position and don't mind taking a chance at guessing who will perform better, Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates are taking on a Browns defense that has been demolished by enemy tight ends this season.
Defense/Special Teams Play for Fantasy Aces
Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN, $2,700)
There are several more expensive defenses in great spots this weekend including the Patriots against the Jets, the Chargers against Cleveland, and Seattle against Arizona. The Packers, however, come in significantly cheaper than those aforementioned teams and have just as much upside this weekend. The Vikings' ineffective offense has held back a team that at one point was a favorite to win the NFC North. Minnesota has simply not run or passed the ball very well this season. Green Bay has played stout run defense this year but has not been great against the pass. That being said, it's hard to imagine the Vikings being able to take advantage of Green Bay's weakness here. The Packers are -6.5 point home favorites in a game where the Vikings are projected to score around 18 points.