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Week 9 NFL Matchups Analysis (Part 2) - Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part two of our Week 9 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the second half of the Week 9 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive our full season NFL (or NBA) Premium Pass for free, a $59.99 value. Just email info@rotoballer.com with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium pass.

 

Week 8 Recap

Greatest Hits: Amari Cooper (WR, OAK), Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS), C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU)

That's why you always keep a player like Cooper in your lineup. He absolutely exploded with a career day of 173 yards on 12 receptions, taking rookie Vernon Hargreaves to the woodshed repeatedly. The way Oakland's pass offense is performing, don't be surprised if he puts together a couple more games like that before season's end. Jamison Crowder put up a big day with 9-107-1, even with Jordan Reed back on the field. Looks like the two of them can play nice together after all. If there's a WR to own in Washington, it isn't Pierre Garcon or DeSean Jackson any more. While Hopkins and Fuller were letdowns against a soft Detroit secondary (see below), Fiedorowicz is emerging as a starting TE option in leagues of 12+ teams.

Greatest Misses: Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA), Andrew Luck (QB, IND), DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU)

The entire Seattle offense disappointed greatly against the Saints and there should be legitimate concern about Russell Wilson's fantasy value going forward. Jimmy Graham looked to be the biggest beneficiary of a choice matchup in Week 8, but emerged with only 34 yards. Andrew Luck and Eli Manning are two QBs I just can't seem to figure out. At home against a team that has been inconsistent defensively, Luck crapped out. Meanwhile, Hopkins owners are probably behind the online petition to buy out Brock Osweiler's contract. "For just five dollars, you have the chance to help a struggling franchise feed their receivers..." You can't bench him and it's inadvisable to sell low, so if you own Hopkins in a season-long league, you're just going to have to ride it out.

 

Panthers @ Rams - Sunday 11/6 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Kenny Britt (WR, LA) - You may be surprised to learn that Kenny Britt is 14th in the NFL at 76.2 receiving yards per game. He had caught at least four passes in every game until Week 7 and has been targeted at least six times in all but one game. No team has given up more fantasy PPG to wide receivers than Carolina, making Britt a must-start in nearly all formats.

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR) - Benjamin hasn't found the end zone since Week 4, but he also hasn't finished with less than 70 yards since then and has been targeted 28 times in the last three games. He may have the most favorable individual matchup of the week if he faces second-year CB Troy Hill. Hill has four starts to his name and no interceptions as of yet in his career. Benjamin is a solid WR2 for Week 9.

Matchups We Hate

Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - Lately, Newton has been fired up about the "cheap shots" he takes, leaving some to question whether Newton is focused on himself more than winning. This isn't the place for that debate, but it can be said that Newton may have a tough time proving his doubters wrong this week. The Rams defense has been stout at home against the pass, allowing an average of 244 YPG through the air and surrendering just two passing TD. Newton isn't taking goal-line plunges as frequently with Jonathan Stewart doing the honors instead. You can keep Newton inserted for standard league lineups as a low-end QB1, but fade him in daily this week.

Todd Gurley (RB, LA) - If you weren't down enough on Gurley this year, here's another week that doesn't look too promising. As bad as the Panthers have been against the pass, they've only yielded three rushing TDs and the second-fewest rushing yards in the league. Gurley has only rewarded his owners in two games this season - don't bet on him snapping out of it this week.

Notable Players

Case Keenum (QB, LA) - This would seem to be a favorable matchup, but there are rumblings of #1 pick Jared Goff seeing practice time with the first team. Keenum's four picks thrown in their last game, combined with a three game losing streak, may force the Rams to give Goff a chance, even if it's just in the second half. The yardage has been good, but Keenum isn't a dependable enough source of TDs to roll with, unless you're looking for a punt play in tournaments.

 

Saints @ 49ers - Sunday 11/6 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Tim Hightower (RB, NO) - Last week, Hightower produced 26 carries for 102 yards - both marks that Mark Ingram hadn't come close to approaching this season. Hightower himself had two similar games late last season when he took over for an injured Ingram. A complete changing of the guard is unlikely, but for this particular game Hightower is the smart play and practically a must-add if he's available. The 49ers are atrocious against the run, allowing a league-worst 1,139 yards. No other team has even allowed 1,000. It's hard to tell how much action Ingram will get, but Hightower should be the lead dog and contribute more than enough to satisfy fantasy owners willing to take the plunge.

Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Starting Brees against the Niners is obvious. Let's add some perspective though. After their Week 1 stunner in a shutout against the Rams, San Francisco has allowed 24 points in every game and at least 33 points in five of six. It will take more than a bye week to fix all the problems in this defense. Brees is currently third in passing yards and second in touchdowns this season. The only thing potentially holding him back from a huge fantasy day is a lead so big that the Saints actually run the ball.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) - While all three of the Saints' top receivers will have the chance to put up points this Sunday, Thomas has two things in his favor: the matchup split should be slightly to his advantage and he has a cheaper price tag than Snead or Cooks. Thomas has outproduced Snead consistently ever since Week 2, so he should be favored in standard leagues as well, not just in this game.

Matchups We Hate

Torrey Smith (WR, SF) - He's still in San Fran, unfortunately, and that may kill his value the rest of this season. Many will jump on this matchup since the Saints are notoriously bad at defending the pass. Don't look now, but the Saints are down to 16th in fantasy points allowed to WR, giving up just five TD on the year. Delvin Breaux is back and should help an improving secondary.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - Ingram has a huge motivating factor after being benched last week and the best matchup of the season in front of him. Sadly, he may not see enough carries to take advantage of this scenario. Hightower has earned his share of carries and the Saints may even mix in Daniel Lasco. Ingram may rebound eventually, but he will have to find the end zone to score for fantasy owners.

Notable Players

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - Like any running quarterback, he is capable of salvaging value with a rushing score or breaking a long run. The New Orleans defense presents his best chance at being fantasy relevant, but this isn't an automatic value play - they aren't as bad as you may think. Plus, if you've actually watched Kaepernick play the last couple of weeks, you aren't jumping on him.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) - Hyde returned to practice Wednesday wearing a non-contact jersey. Signs point to a possible return this week, but check the injury report on Sunday morning before finalizing any lineups including him. If he goes, he should return to RB2 in a plus matchup on the ground.

 

Titans @ Chargers - Sunday 11/6 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - I apologize if this is getting repetitive, but Murray is a top five running back option again this week. The Chargers have allowed 1,123 total yards and 12 TDs to running backs this year. 501 of those yards have come in the air. Given the way Murray is catching the ball this year, he is a good bet to be a dual-threat out of the backfield again. The talk of Tennessee wanting to involve Derrick Henry more has little effect on Murray's value. Keep him plugged in as a safe RB1 with a high ceiling this week.

Philip Rivers (QB, SD) - Other than tough matchups against Denver in Week 6 and at KC in Week 1, Rivers has been a solid fantasy contributor on a weekly basis. He is currently the QB9 in overall points on the year and should do just fine against an average Tennessee defense. With passers like Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins and Carson Palmer all on bye this week, Rivers makes an appealing play at a reasonable price in daily leagues.

Tyrell Williams (WR, SD) - He has been limited in practice with a knee issue, but should still be in the lineup once Sunday rolls around. At 6'4", he has the best chance to take advantage of the Titans' undersized corners, who have been merely adequate this season. He's been completely shut down in the two of the last four weeks, but both of those were against the defending champion Broncos. The other two games resulted in 12 catches for 257 yards. Another 100 yards and a score is possible.

Kendall Wright (WR, TEN) - The Baylor product has been the epitome of feast or famine since returning in Week 4. He has posted three games under 20 yards receiving and two games with 84 yards, 133 yards and a TD in each. Tennessee is suddenly thin at in the receiving corps again with Andre Johnson retired and Delanie Walker questionable. Wright should see more targets come his way, although he is still a boom-bust play since he depends on the deep ball. San Diego's injury-riddled defense is 24th in points and passing yardage allowed, so there is opportunity here.

Matchups We Hate

Tajae Sharpe (WR, TEN) - Sharpe has all but completely fallen off the map since Week 4, totaling seven catches on 14 targets in the last four games. With no touchdowns scored and only one game over 50 yards since opening day, Sharpe should have been dropped in all leagues by mid-October.

Notable Players

Travis Benjamin (WR, SD) - After making a spectacular touchdown grab last week in Denver, his first since Week 2, Benjamin suffered a sprained PCL. He is questionable to play and is best avoided.

 

Colts @ Packers - Sunday 11/6 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Davante Adams (WR, GB) - If you still haven't bought into his heavy target share over the last two games (30 targets for 25 receptions), here's another chance to be proven wrong. Vontae Davis is expected to shadow Jordy Nelson, which will leave Adams to feast on the weaker portion of the Colts' vulnerable secondary. With no running game in sight, the Pack will keep putting the ball in the air 40+ times in what could be another shootout.

Andrew Luck (QB, IND) - He followed up a huge game on the road in Week 7 with a letdown at home in Week 8. The frozen tundra of Green Bay isn't the friendliest place to play and Luck's road numbers haven't been as favorable. Taking all that into account, Luck could still pull out a big game if this turns into a showdown between two gunslingers. The Packers have shut down the run all year (Week 6 aside), which should force Luck to air it out all day. Volume alone could make him a top five QB play this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) - If Luck is a top five play, Rodgers is in the top three (only Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have tastier matchups). Only five teams allow more fantasy PPG to quarterbacks than Indy. It has become obvious that the Packers will simply air it out and substitute a short passing game for handoffs in the backfield. The pundits who have been burying Rodgers all season will have to eat serious crow if he passes for four touchdowns again.

Donte Moncrief (WR, IND) - It didn't take long for Moncrief to re-establish himself as the WR2 in Indianapolis. He saw nine targets, although only four were converted into catches for 41 yards. He did score his second touchdown of the year in just his third game. Moncrief is a player whose fantasy stock should continue to rise. If he's available in your season-long league, add him while you can.

Matchups We Hate

Frank Gore (RB, IND) - After being decimated by Ezekiel Elliott in Week 6, Green Bay's run defense has returned to its dominant form. They limited Devonta Freeman to 35 yards last week after holding Jordan Howard to 22 yards the week before. The Colts are not known for putting up big rushing yards as it is, so expect an extremely disappointing week for Big Frank.

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) - His performance in Week 8 (94 yards and a TD) gave his fantasy owners a reason to breathe a sigh of relief after two lackluster games. It may not last long, however, as Nelson could have a tough day being shadowed by Vontae Davis. Oddly enough, even though the Colts rank near the bottom is passing yards allowed, they also allow the seventh-fewest fantasy PPG to WR. Nelson has remained a fantasy asset due to his six touchdowns scored, but only five TDs have been scored by receivers all season against the Colts. There's always a chance, but Nelson is best faded in daily.

Notable Players

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - Will he go for 170 yards and a touchdown or 40 yards with no score? Hilton seems to have an affinity for the odd numbered weeks, so maybe this will be another big one for him. His price tag is not cheap, however, so he is best left for tournament plays. He should be starting every single week in standard leagues.

 

Broncos @ Raiders - Sunday 11/6 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Devontae Booker (RB, DEN) - If you were smart enough to snatch Booker and are fielding offers from RB desperate owners, resist the temptation to sell. Booker faces a Raiders team that has been run on to the tune of 909 yards, making them the 29th-ranked run defense in the NFL. The narrative about the Raiders defense is that they are vulnerable to the pass, but in reality they are worse against the run. Booker will be fed the ball often and is a good bet to find the end zone for a third straight week as the starter.

Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK) - Lost amid Amari Cooper's huge game against Tampa Bay is the fact that Crabtree also put up very good numbers. He caught eight passes for the second straight week, turning in 108 yards in Week 8. On paper, Cooper would seem to have a more favorable matchup against Bradley Roby, while Crabtree will see Pro Bowler Aqib Talib. Talib, however, missed practice Thursday to get a second opinion on his back injury and has been out all week. With Amari Cooper also battling a back injury, Crabtree could be the smarter play.

Matchups We Hate

Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN) - This bears repeating again in case you are tempted to use Siemian in any way: the Raiders pass defense isn't that bad. Sure, they're in the bottom 10 on the season, but since Week 2 they've only allowed one 300-yard passer (Philip Rivers). Khalil Mack has four sacks in the last three games and is starting to resemble his Pro Bowl form of last season. There are better value plays at QB this week than Siemian.

Latavius Murray (RB, OAK) - Murray is a shining example of a TD-dependent fantasy player who would be nearly unplayable in PPR leagues without those scores. Murray is yet to crack 60 rushing yards in a game this season and has caught all of 17 passes for 90 yards on the season. Against the Broncos, Murray doesn't need to be started in any format.

Notable Players

Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - You don't want to start any QB against Denver, but if you've been riding Carr lately you don't necessarily have to bench him. Carr is on pace to put up 4,600 passing yards, 34 TD and six INT on the season. That may not come to fruition, but he has become an every week starter regardless. Keep in mind, however, that Denver hasn't allowed more than 250 yards to a passer all season and has kept opponents under 200 passing yards in six out of eight games.




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