X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: How'd I Do?

Rick Lucks reviews five players from previous entries to give a final verdict as to their Champ or Chump status for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.

The point of Champ or Chump is to use every metric imaginable to try to predict how a player will perform in the future. It's not always right, as true talent levels change while luck plays a role in every play's individual outcome. Historically, I conclude the analysis based on what I see as the most likely outcome and then move on, never looking back to see if I was right or wrong.

That ends now. While I could introduce names for 2017 draft prep, there will be plenty of time for that in the coming months. Instead, I'm taking a second look at the five most interesting (in my opinion, of course) players to appear in Champ or Chump during the 2016 season. My selections will probably seem completely arbitrary, but I ruled out more recent analysis and anyone that failed to meet expectations due to injury. There are still way too many names to cover everyone, so I focused on personal favorites. Without further ado, let's see how I did. Verdicts are based on my original prediction, not the player's performance.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Jeanmar Gomez (RP, PHI)

The first RP in this column's history is also the first to get a second look in the same season. Way back on April 16, I encouraged readers to add Gomez as something more than Philadelphia's closer of the moment. He lacked the Ks generally expected of a closer, but offered a strong GB% in a park that requires it. He also had a history of beating the league average ERA. I speculated both that the Phils would get enough save opportunities for fantasy owners to care and that Gomez would be boring enough to avoid Trade Deadline suitors, allowing him to compile saves all year.

I was mostly right. Gomez has 37 saves, tied for seventh in all of baseball. He failed to accumulate an appreciable number of Ks (15.8% K%), allowing him to remain a Phillie past July 31. The league ERA is 4.20 as I type this, and Gomez bettered that number in four of six months this year. One of the outliers was June's 4.35 ERA, which isn't too much higher.

His final ERA of 4.85 provides a hint to just how disastrous September has been, as Gomez's 19.13 ERA over eight innings this month is awful. He has finally lost the closer's job, but 37 saves are worth far more than what you paid for him. He's better than his September numbers, but I think the Gomez train has left the station. For fantasy purposes, I'm confident in labeling him a one year wonder.

Verdict: Champ

Joey Votto (1B, CIN)

After an April that saw Votto hit just .229 with two homers, I got the bright idea to call Votto a Chump on May 1. I was right for a month, as Votto's .200 average dragged down the value of seven dingers in May. After that, oops is all I can say. Votto currently has 28 bombs, a .324/.435/.545 triple slash line, and 191 R+RBI with three more games to add to the totals.

My original analysis centered on the fact that Votto was pulling too many grounders, hurting his average, while simultaneously failing to pull anything in the air, hurting his power totals. A 70+ Pull% on his grounders in April declined to 53.2% by year's end, meaning that the shift no longer hampered his batting average. Votto's power has always been hit or miss, but his Pull% on flies has at least broken into double digits (11.6%). I also noted that pitchers were challenging Votto more in an effort to take his elite eye out of the equation. It proved to be a statistical blip, though, as his final Zone% of 44.7% is far closer to his career 43.1% mark than April's nearly 50 percent figure.

If this prediction burned you, know that I practiced what I preached and traded Votto in an NL-Only league for Giancarlo Stanton and Jon Gray, both of whom were Champs in this column. Stanton got hurt, again, shortly thereafter, while Gray's production was nowhere near enough to replace Votto's performance. The trade doomed me to a middling finish. I accept my punishment.

Verdict: Chump

David Price (SP, BOS)

On May 9, I puzzled over Price's excellent 4-0 record and decidedly less excellent 6.14 ERA. As an adherent of DIPS theory, I trusted in Price's 30.6% K% and 2.88 FIP over the inflated BABIP caused by a fluky 29+ LD% and the tiny strand rate it caused. I assured readers he would return to ace form.

That kind of happened. Price's final ERA of 4.04 is much better than 6.14, but still far higher than owners expected when they selected Price to lead their pitching staff. Boston continued to support him ably, allowing Price to post a record of 17-9. On the downside, his K% fell to a good 24.1% instead of the great 30.6% number, a change I should have seen coming in retrospect due to the changeup ranking as the only plus plus pitch in Price's repertoire. He's also been homer prone, as his current 13.5% HR/FB is a career worst. As a result, his FIP is actually higher now (3.55) than it was before.

Price's BABIP and strand rate normalized as I thought they would, and Price was certainly useful this year. I promised an ace, however, and I don't think he lived up to that title. If he continues to rely almost exclusively on one pitch to get Ks, it may be best to count on him only as a #2 next season.

Verdict: Chump

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT)

In a column published on June 19, I argued that Pittsburgh's superstar was beginning a new phase of his career. Age has robbed him of the athleticism he was once famous for, as his SB attempts, UBR, and defensive metrics all pointed to a noticeable decline. Boasting only six swipes against seven CS, this part of my analysis was right on the money. Cutch does not appear to be a speed asset in fantasy anymore.

I went on to argue that 2016 would be a lost year, but that 2017 would see an uptick in power production to recoup most of the superstar's value. He was hitting a lot more fly balls and pulling them with a little more frequency at the time. However, his current FB% of 41.7% is not that much higher than his 38.6% career rate. I also brought up the possibility of McCutchen selling out for power to make up for his loss of speed, but his 10.5% SwStr% does not support this theory very well. It was 12.5% at the time of writing, but his current number is only two tenths of a point higher than last year's mark.

I labelled 2016 as a lost year, and a triple slash line of .255/.337/.432 certainly qualifies as that from a first round selection. Therefore, my Chump tag was deserved. My optimism for next year, however, has been tempered considerably. I don't think I'm getting any shares unless he falls to the midway point of drafts. Even then, I might roll the dice with a sleeper.

Verdict: Champ

Drew Pomeranz (SP, BOS)

I was far from the only person who speculated that Pomeranz would struggle in Boston. He's a BABIP-suppression type of pitcher who FIP always seems to catch up with in the end, and he had to face a DH in a hitter friendly ballpark after the trade from San Diego. He had a great K% at the time, but none of his offerings really stand out by SwStr%. I called for the K% to regress and the ERA to balloon.

After the trade, Pomeranz posted a 4.68 ERA, 4.87 FIP, and a 3-5 record. The team is demoting him to the bullpen for their postseason run, proving that he was not the impact addition he may have appeared to be on the surface. His final numbers (11-12, 3.35 ERA) still look reasonable, but he needed to post a 16% LD% against to do it. If that reverts even to Pomeranz's career average of 19%, he could be in for a world of hurt.

Pomeranz lacks the stuff to repeat his current K%, and control types typically struggle in Boston. If you drafted Sonny Gray in 2016, you know what to expect in 2017 from Drew Pomeranz. Avoid if at all possible.

Verdict: Champ

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Miles Boykin1 hour ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson2 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield2 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum2 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George2 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes2 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney3 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes3 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins3 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin3 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey3 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev3 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco4 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair4 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez4 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo4 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu4 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams4 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley4 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero5 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao6 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells6 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt6 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida6 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera6 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
6 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Sitting On Thursday After Signing Extension
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Jake Meyers7 hours ago

Taking Seat For Third Straight Contest
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Luis Garcia7 hours ago

Shut Down With Elbow Inflammation
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs8 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints8 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl12 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann14 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin14 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
23 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals23 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell24 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers24 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet1 day ago

Out Versus Utah
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]