Rick Lucks analyzes Chris TIllman, Hanley Ramirez, and Gary Sanchez to see who will have continued success in the 2016 season and which players will see a regression for the rest of the year.

As we head toward the season's final week, chances are your fantasy fate has been decided. Even if it hasn't, adding players for this year only holds so much potential value. Your process may be flawless, but the tiny sample size remaining can ruin the best laid plans. My favorite story to that effect is from my cousin, who stood to win a money league a few seasons ago if he could get one homer out of an outfielder slot. He had streamed the spot all season, and made the intelligent choice on who to play. I honestly don't remember who it was, but it doesn't matter. He didn't hit a homer, dooming my cousin to a second place finish. On his bench, however, Juan Pierre managed a pair of homers. That doesn't count, of course, but if my cousin made the completely indefensible decision to start Pierre for power, he wins the league.

I have no idea how one predicts something like that, so instead I'll focus on rational decision making for keeper league owners and 2017 draft prep. Let's take an in depth look at Chris Tillman, Hanley Ramirez, and Gary Sanchez.

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Chris Tillman (SP, BAL)

Perhaps you've seen the numbers suggesting that Baltimore is a great team when Tillman pitches and a terrible one when he doesn't. Do not let them convince you Tillman is any good. He's bad, which is admittedly better than the horrific performances the rest of the team's pitchers are putting in. 16-6 record aside, Tillman's 3.84 ERA is barely acceptable in fantasy while his 4.52 xFIP is a disaster. A K% of 20% completes the portrait of a fantasy arm entirely reliant on Ws to hold any value at all.

As pedestrian as Tillman's strikeouts sound, his K% has actually soared relative to last year's 16.2% mark. The reason why is his pitch selection, as he is throwing more sliders (7.2% to 15.4%) at the expense of heaters (61% to 51.9%) relative to last season. The slider is also Tillman's best pitch by SwStr% (13%), so throwing it more often logically leads to more strikeouts.

The fact that a slider with a 13% SwStr% is the best in a pitcher's arsenal also tells you that the pitcher in question lacks any kind of K upside. Tillman's changeup has a better chase rate than the slider (38.4%), but its 12.6% SwStr% is really not very good for a pitch chased so often. His fastball accomplishes almost nothing, as its 7.1% SwStr% is too low to directly lead to strikeouts while its 52.8% Zone% is not high enough to set up pitches that can. The only other pitch Tillman throws is a knucklecurve, but its 25.6% Zone%, 14% chase rate, and 5.3% SwStr% are all awful.

Tillman's unimpressive repertoire explains why he nibbles as much as he does, as his 9.1% BB% is a little high for a guy with few strikeouts. This is even more troubling when you consider that Tillman allows home runs with regularity. His 10.7% HR/FB is right on his career average of 11%, but 37% of all batted balls against him are hit into the air. That is way too high for a pitcher with Camden Yards, AKA hitter heaven, for a home park. The numbers reflect this, as his ERA is much better on the road (3.06) than at home (4.61). The only pitch Tillman has with a strong GB% is the knucklecurve (65.7%), likely the only reason he ever uses it.

If Tillman is so bad, why have the results been good thus far? The first reason is an elevated strand rate of 76.9%, a number that Tillman simply lacks the strikeouts to sustain. The second is Baltimore's above average offense, providing him with the run support to rack up plenty of Ws. Finally, Tillman has suppressed BABIP on grounders (.196, .223 career) to the point that he has a favorable overall BABIP (.280) despite an uptick in LD% (21.2% last year, 22.5% this) and decline in IFFB% (13.5% to 7.9%).

Despite Baltimore's -32 DRS as a team, there is reason to believe that defense has helped Tillman compile his numbers. Manny Machado has 15 DRS between short and third, JJ Hardy has seven at short, and Chris Davis has nine at first base, collectively forming a strong defensive unit. The overall team number is dragged down by a brutal outfield that alternates Joey Rickard (-9), Mark Trumbo (-10), Adam Jones (-12), and Hyun Soo Kim (also -12). Therefore, it is probably not an accident that Tillman's BABIP on fly balls (.138) is significantly higher than his career norm (.110). If that's true, the infielders get credit for at least some of Tillman's ground ball BABIP.

That does not mean it's sustainable, though. Hardy's time as a regular may be coming to an end, and the team sometimes finds Davis more valuable as a below average outfielder (-2 DRS) than an above average first baseman. When this questionable defense is added to a limited arsenal and fly ball tendencies, Tillman's is an arm you would do well to avoid in 2017.

Verdict: Chump

 
Hanley Ramirez (1B, BOS)

Where the heck did a .293/.363/.516 triple slash line with 29 homers and nine steals come from? Hanley followed up a down season two year ago with an abysmal one last year, causing many (me included) to write him off entirely. A .280 average with eight bombs in this season's first half did nothing to change my opinion, nor did a feud with Boston sportswriters. Now he has 10 homers in September alone, bringing his overall line back to respectability.

I still don't believe. Hanley's primary skill at this stage of his career is power, and his 33.2% FB% is still too low to reliably produce 30 HR campaigns. The power this year is the result of a HR/FB spike (21.2%) despite the fact that he is pulling fewer of his flies (21.2%) than he has over his career (25.2%). Double digit homers in a month is almost always fluky, and Hanley stops being an attractive fantasy option if you take them out of his current line. He maybe hits 20 in 2017, with a floor that is completely unrosterable in most formats.

That may seem odd to say about a .290 hitter, but his BABIP appears unsustainable as well. Just a year removed from a terrible .257 BABIP, Hanley's current .322 mark is built on the same IFFB% (12.1% last year, 12.4% this) and a lower LD% (20.4% to 19.1%) than his previous effort. The difference is on grounders, as Hanley is somehow hitting .294 on them this year vs. a career average of .281. Considering Hanley's career includes significant time as a true speedster, older and slower Hanley should not be able to produce at his career BABIP, much less exceed it, even if he is shift proof (.378 average against it).

The ground ball luck also masks the worst plate discipline metrics of the first sacker's career. His 19.3% K% isn't bad, but a career worst in SwStr% (10.2%) supported by a career worst Z-Contact% (86.9%) is always a cause for concern. His eye is merely average (30.6% O-Swing%), leaving Hanley with little to fall back on if the power dries up.

Ramirez might steal 10 this year, but it is clear that the days of 50+ are long gone. He'll steal a handful, but not enough to justify burning your 1B slot on him. You'll need to next year, as Boston has mercifully put an end to their player's short lived outfield career. He's only first base eligible as a result, and may lose even that going foward if he becomes the team's DH after Papi retires.

Papi's retirement likely forces the Red Sox Notebook" href="http://www.rotoballer.com/mlb-fantasy-news/?team=BOS">Red Sox to retool over the offseason, so I have no idea what their lineup will be or Hanley's role in it. Regardless, 20 bombs is a low ceiling for a first baseman, especially if batting average risk is also in the equation. Without elite speed, the only format I'm comfortable rostering Hanley in is that weird one where the object is to assemble the worst possible team while still reaching PA and IP minimums.

Verdict: Chump

 
Gary Sanchez (C, NYY)

If you are unfamiliar with what Sanchez has accomplished over the last two months, allow me to be the first to welcome you to planet Earth! His 19 dingers in just 45 games represent an all time MLB record, while his .333/.411/.738 triple slash line over 192 PAs is nothing to sneeze at either. Add in maximum position scarcity as an American League catcher, and Sanchez should be a highly desired commodity on draft day.

Should you take the plunge? Sanchez had his best power minor league season last year when he hit 25 bombs over rookie ball (seven), Double-A (12), and Triple-A (six). Otherwise, his best is 18 at High A ball in 2012. If you want to believe in anything resembling this season's production, you have to argue that Sanchez figured something out in a major way since his minor league career.

That is very hard to do when looking at a 41.3% HR/FB. Sanchez is not that good because frankly, nobody is. He does hit a lot of flies (37.1%) and pull an insane number of them (37%), but the small sample prevents me from giving him full credit for either. I can see 25 bombs with upside for more, but counting on anything more from a player with such a small track record strikes me as a fool's errand.

While I kind of believe the power, I don't trust the batting average at all. Sanchez has a .352 BABIP despite a position that involves a lot of squatting, a well below average LD% of 15.3%, the elevated FB% mentioned above, and a fairly high 15.2% IFFB%. The shift hurts Sanchez a lot as well, as he is hitting .263 against it versus .409 when it is not in play. Everyone's heard of him by now, so I expect many more shifts in his future. His .305 BABIP on grounders will not repeat as a result.

Despite the fact that so many of Sanchez's flies leave the park, those that stay in the yard have a well above average BABIP of .250. With so many of the best ones removed from the BABIP pool, there is no way the .250 mark is sustainable. It is possible that liners are being miscategorized as flies, reducing Sanchez's LD% while inflating his BABIP on flies, but this is only a possibility. For what it's worth, Sanchez lacks a minor league history of above average BABIPs as well.

Sanchez's power binge has resulted in a strong walk rate of 10.9%, but his 32.8% O-Swing% is only average. If the power goes south, the walk rate will as well. His 23.4% K% and 12.4% SwStr% indicate that his youth will include plenty of strikeouts, though the 23-year-old's upside could include the better than average strikeout rates he posted throughout the minors. Still, that probably doesn't happen in 2017.

Sanchez stole seven bags (in eight attempts) before his MLB debut this year, and his minor league history suggests that he'll steal around five bags per year, well above average for a catcher. He certainly profiles as an above average power hitter at a scarce position, but I fear that he will get the Kyle Schwarber treatment and be taken in the third round as if he's some kind of lock for 40+ bombs. He isn't.

Verdict: Chump (due to expected price)

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