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Giovani Bernard vs. Danny Woodhead - 2016 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis

At this point, fantasy drafts should just be just about wrapping up. The start of the NFL season is this Thursday when the reigning Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos take on the reigning runners-up Carolina Panthers in a rematch of Super Bowl 50. But if you are still prepping for a last minute draft or just want to know which running back is going to be super valuable, you should keep reading.

In the corner of Ohio, we have uber-Reds/Bengals/Blue Jackets/Cavaliers fan Edward Sutelan (@RedsGuy1869) backing up his boy, pass-catching Giovani Bernard. And in the Buffalo corner, we have Bills/Sabres fan Ben Rupert(@Ben_Ruppert_21) defending San Diego Chargers' pass-catching, Christian McCaffery of the NFL running back Danny Woodhead. And here they will fight over who is the better running back to own in fantasy football this season.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN) - Edward Sutelan

The last time I wrote one of these versus articles, I defended the other Cincinnati Bengals’ running back, Jeremy Hill. This time, I am going to be defending my boy Giovani Bernard.

For starters, let’s get into a discussion about who exactly Giovani Bernard is. Bernard is a 5’9”, 205 pound running back whose primary role with the Bengals has been to serve as the pass-catching running back for the team. He usually makes 40-50 receptions per season and averages about 9.0 yards per catch. But don’t worry, he gets his fair share of chances to run as well with at least 150 rushing attempts in each of his first three seasons and an average of 4.3 yards per carry. Now he is a lot smaller than Hill, so he has not received a lot of opportunities to rush the ball in for a touchdown (only 12 TD rushes over his three year career), but he could start to see an uptick in playing time this season.

Why do I say that? Well because of how empty the receiving corp of the Bengals are going to be when they begin the season. Tyler Eifert is hurt, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu have both left via free agency and Jeremy Hill is coming off a relatively down year. Don’t forget that though Hill was once again a bruising red zone presence (evidenced by his 11 touchdown rushes), he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry and continued to show some issues with holding onto the football (three fumbles). Now, I’m not saying that Hill is going to be awful because I do expect him to rebound a bit, but I think that there is reason to be optimistic for Bernard’s chances at increased playing time.

But Edward, Danny Woodhead had so many touchdowns last season! And he caught sooo many more passes than Bernard did! Why wouldn’t I want that guy? Well first off, let’s look at why Woodhead caught so many more passes. First, tight end Antonio Gates misses the first four games of the season for the Chargers, leaving them short one of their top receivers. Then later in the year, wide receiver Keenan Allen was hurt and missed the rest of the season. So the Chargers had very few options available when it came to the passing game and as a result they turned to Woodhead frequently.

Another thing that is important to look at when comparing the two running backs is age. Where Bernard is still young at only 24 years old, Woodhead is 31 years old, a bit old for a running back. Many studies have shown that running backs that old start to see a decrease in productivity after they hit age 30, so we can expect to see Woodhead continue to head downhill(https://www.profootballfocus.com/age-of-decline-rb1/). In his age 30 season, Woodhead was used more than he has ever been used in his entire NFL career and that takes a toll on an older running back. Fantasy owners should not expect the numbers to be quite nearly as spectacular as they were last year.

As of right now, Bernard is listed as a slightly better running back than Woodhead with Bernard holding an ADP of 27.9 to Woodhead’s 30.6 according to FantasyPros. With Bernard on the right side of 30 and a depleted receiving corp in front of him, fantasy owners should take note and be ready to snag this running back in the third round of the draft (ahead of Mr. Woodhead).

 

Danny Woodhead (RB, SD) - Ben Ruppert

Danny Woodhead played a huge role in the Chargers offense last season. As the prominent pass catching RB in this offense, Woodhead caught 80 passes for 755 yards and six TDs. He also rushed for 336 yards and three TDs en route to a top-five RB finish in PPR formats. He is currently being drafted in the fifth round, as the 22nd running back off the board in PPR leagues according to fantasy football calculator. Why is he being taken behind his teammate Melvin Gordon, and in the same tier as Giovani Bernard when he did so well last season?

Before breaking the fibula in his right ankle causing him to miss basically all of the 2014 season, Woodhead had an impressive 2013 in his first year as a San Diego Charger. Woodhead caught 76 passes for 605 yards and six reception TDs, to go along with 429 rushing yards (4.0 avg.) and two scores. In both seasons, he was used very similar: the primary pass-catching back, and the main garbage time, come from behind back. Woodhead will be utilized in this offense the same was he was last season, and the same way he was in 2013. The Chargers clearly know how to utilize his skill set to a T. Even with Melvin Gordon in the picture, the Chargers 2015 first round pick, Woodhead will still have his role unchanged in this offense.

The Chargers threw the ball a whopping 667 times last season (tied for second in the league), and figure to do more of the same this season especially with Keenan Allen back in the picture. Woodhead is far and away the best pass catching back on the roster, and will see a heavy dose of usage in those moments again in 2016. In 2015 he was the leading receiver amongst all running backs, led all running backs in YAC, and generated more first downs (39, seven more than the next closest RB) than any RB in the league. He also did not fumble once last season, meaning once the ball is in hands it locked up for good. With the Chargers figuring to pass the ball often again this coming season, expect Woodhead to keep this trend going and have some huge games.

Both Woodhead and Bernard have the same issue; a crowded backfield. So far one of them has shown to be a good, consistent back, while the other has proven to be an excellent back with top-five to ten potential. When drafting take Danny Woodhead, as he is one of if not the most superior pass catching RB in the league.




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