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The top two picks in the 2015 NFL draft were quarterbacks, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota. Neither were busts last year, and both should improve and be even better this year.
Other than that dynamic duo, no other rookie quarterback had an iota of fantasy value in 2015. Only one other rookie QB threw a pass, and Washington rookie receiver Jamison Crowder attempted one more pass than the rest of the first-year quarterbacks combined. So fantasy owners are probably not expecting the world from the NFL’s second-year signal callers. Here are three sophomore quarterbacks set to struggle in 2016.
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Avoid These Sophomore Quarterbacks
Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos
It is hard to classify Siemian as a bust last year when he was drafted in the seventh round and there was no way that he was going to play with Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and up-and-comer Brock Osweiler entrenched as the starter and backup. Siemian did not throw a pass during the regular season despite Manning having the worst year of his career and Osweiler dealing with some minor injuries after he took over as starter.
But now Siemian has surprisingly won Denver’s QB competition over turnover-happy Mark Sanchez and highly-touted rookie Paxton Lynch. Siemian has been placed into a situation quarterbacks salivate over. He has Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas as his wideouts, he has offensive guru Gary Kubiak teaching him and orchestrating the passing attack, and he has an above-average defense and running game that will help ease him into learning how to be an NFL starting signal caller.
The problem is that Siemian is a former seventh-round pick and is a placeholder until first rounder Lynch is ready to take over. The pressure is going to be on Siemian to run the defending World Champions’ offense. If he falters after a few weeks, Lynch is in and Siemian is back to having a fantasy value in the negatives. For fantasy owners thinking Siemian could be a late-round sleeper as a No. 2 fantasy QB, there is a better chance he is sitting on the sidelines by November 1st than there is that he throws for 25-30 touchdowns.
Bryce Petty, New York Jets
You almost got the feeling that Petty had an outside chance of being the Jets starting quarterback on Week 1 with the way Gang Green’s offseason soap opera was playing out. Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out for more millions, second-rounder Christian Hackenburg was throwing passes like the second-coming of Josh Freeman, and Geno Smith had not gained any more trust from New York’s coaching staff. Meanwhile, Petty was waiting in the wings.
But Fitzpatrick and the Jets dashed the dreams of Petty and any fantasy owner who wasted a late-round pick or a dynasty league roster spot when Fitzpatrick signed a one-year contract in August. And those dreams were further smashed to smithereens when Jets head coach Todd Bowles earmarked Smith as Fitzpatrick’s backup.
Petty will be nothing but a clipboard holder this season, relegated to third-string duty behind Fitzpatrick and Smith. He did not throw a pass last season, and he probably will not again this season. Next year Petty could move up a spot on the rung or he could be cut from the team depending on the progress of Hackenburg. Robert Griffin III will still be the better Baylor product as a fantasy QB in 2016.
Sean Mannion, Los Angeles Rams
How can you call Mannion a bust in 2015? The kid completed 85.7 percent of his passes, had a quarterback rating of 85.1 and did not throw a single interception. Of course, he only threw seven passes, did not start a game or score a touchdown, and he watched from the sidelines as the mediocre Case Keenum and the downright disappointing Nick Foles made the Rams abysmal passing attack the worst in the NFL.
Mannion moves up from third-string to second-string as we enter the 2016 campaign, and his chances of starting at some point are not half bad considering Keenum is the quarterback ahead of him on the depth chart. The problem is that the youngster behind him, Jared Goff, was selected first overall in this past year’s NFL draft and is undoubtedly the future of the franchise.
Goff had a horrible preseason between his shaky play in the pocket and the bruised tailbone he suffered, so he will not overtake Mannion right away. And Keenum, he of the 15 career touchdown tosses, will be lucky to be locked in as the starter for more than eight games. But Mannion has shown no flashes of superior skill during his limited playing time, and even if he does play he will not do much with such an inferior group of receivers. No need to bother listing him on your cheat sheet.
