Another Thursday with double-digit games scheduled is quite the late-season blessing. For the purposes of this article, I'm going to concentrate on the juicier nine game Main slate that begins at 7:05 EDT tonight. We've got a handful of lopsided lines and heavy favorites, so there's much to breakdown. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 8/25/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
As for what we can derive from Vegas lines, the games with the highest over/unders listed should be on our radar for stacking opportunities. The most attractive games from that standpoint are the Angels at Blue Jays (10), Mariners at White Sox (9.5) and the Indians at Rangers (9). The heaviest moneyline favorites for tonight are the Nationals (-213), the Blue Jays (-266), and the Giants (-200).
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays right-handed batters versus Jered Weaver
You know that great feeling you'd get inside when you were in second grade and about to have Field Day? That has to be similar to what the Blue Jays' hitters are experiencing this morning with the opportunity to face Jered Weaver tonight in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The Jays have an order that is just build for stacking - against nearly any opponent - but especially against a pitcher like Weaver who really, really struggles with right-handed batters. On the season, Weaver has allowed a .380 wOBA and .554 slugging percentage to right-handed batters, and I've got my eyes set on four Jays' - Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki - that should be able to wreak havoc. The Blue Jays also have the highest run expectancy of the day at six.
Seattle Mariners against Anthony Ranaudo
Not far behind the Blue Jays, the Mariners have the second highest run expectancy of Thursday at 5.1 for this evening. The Mariners not only get a nice park upgrade as they play tonight on the South Side of Chicago, but they also get to face the likes of Anthony Ranaudo. Ranaudo doesn't project to be anything special in the major leagues and in a small sample size, he has struggled immensely. You could attack Ranaudo with hitters from either side of the plate - as both have fared well - but I particularly like the left-handed batters the Mariners stack at the top of the order, all of whom have strong splits against right-handed pitchers. Those hitters are, in no particular order, Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, Nori Aoki and Adam Lind.
Also Consider: St. Louis Cardinals against Seth Lugo
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Max Scherzer (SP, WAS) - $10,900
I'm not going to lie and say the home run issues he's had this season combined with Baltimore's power don't make me a little worrisome, but I think the upside is too high to pass on today - especially in tournament formats. If you throw away his one poor start over his last six, he's been absolutely brilliant, like the Mad Max of old. For the season, he owns an incredible 11.4 K/9 and he has an elevated chance to put up big strikeout numbers this evening as he faces an Orioles offense that has gone down via strikeout in 27% of their at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season. Vegas is also a big fan of the Nationals side in this game, and a win could really push him past his price implied value.
J.A. Happ (SP, TOR) - $9,800
If Scherzer makes you queasy in cash game formats tonight, Happ is your man. The Blue Jays are heavy favorites, he should get plenty of run support, and he's been pitching really well at home this season. Speaking of the season, his numbers throughout 2016 have been strong. He's maintained solid control (1.1 WHIP), while keeping the ball in the yard (0.9 HR/9) and is racking up a good deal of strikeouts (8.6 K/9). On top of that, over his past three starts, he's allowed a hard hit rate of only 25%, and perhaps more impressively, a line drive rate of just 8%.
Also Consider: Robbie Ray (SP, ARI) - $8,800 (GPP)
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C) - Mike Zunino (C, SEA) - $3,000
Mr. Zunino has found his stroke once again and tonight's benefactors are you, me and Mike. In all seriousness, he has been hitting the ball a mile of late, and he has very strong splits against right-handed pitchers, as showcased by his .448 wOBA and .410 ISO splits.
First Base (1B) - Brandon Moss (1B, STL) - $3,600
Moss has been smoking the ball over the past two weeks (53% hard hit rate) and is an absolute steal at this price point. He faces a subpar pitcher and his splits against right-handed pitching - .417 wOBA, .354 ISO - are absolutely fantastic.
Second Base (2B) - Matt Carpenter (2B, STL) - $3,700
It's a little surprising to see so many attractive options at second base in one night, but this isn't a complaint. I think you would do well to choose any one of Carpenter, Devon Travis or Robinson Cano. Carpenter is getting the edge for me because of his lower price, weak opposing pitcher, and the fact I think he'll be less owned than the other two in GPP formats. In 2016, Carp owns a .434 wOBA and .306 ISO split.
Shortstop (SS) - Adam Frazier (SS, PIT) - $2,500
Frazier is my favorite sub 3K player this evening. He has a fantastic matchup against Wily Peralta, in a great stadium for power, and his splits are very strong. In fact, he draws nearly all of his power against righties, as his ISO split against RHP is more than 150 points higher than when he faces off against southpaws.
Third Base (3B) - Jedd Gyorko (3B, STL) - $2,800
Like a few of his St. Louis teammates tonight, Jedd is an absolute steal at this price point. Not only does he have very strong splits, but he's been making incredible hard contact over the past 15 days.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Seth Smith (OF, SEA) - $2,800
Smith is the value play of the outfield bunch. He faces a subpar pitcher and has real big split differentials, essentially meaning when he does his damage, he does so against right-handed pitching.
Bryce Harper (OF, WAS) - $3,900
Harper has been making great contact over the past few weeks and his price hasn't crept over 4K somehow. Nonetheless, it's a good opportunity for us to roster him at a nice price point with a good matchup tonight against a home run prone pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF, SEA) - $2,900
I'm going to continue to pick on Ranaudo with my final outfield piece. Gutierrez is always criminally under-priced and under-owned, and as such, I like him a lot tonight in tournament formats. He gets a ballpark upgrade and sports a .227 ISO split.
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