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Week 13 Buy and Sell for Fantasy Baseball

By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Kyle Bishop takes a look at which MLB hitters and pitchers you should keep, drop, or trade for during week 13 of the 2016 MLB fantasy baseball season.

You’re not going to believe this, but Carlos Correa had a pretty phenomenal week and Whit Merrifield did not. Zach Davies’ ratios weren’t pretty in his last start, but he did strike out nine batters in only five innings.

Conversely, while Jason Hammel produced a quality start against the Marlins, he struck out only three batters in his six innings of work. It was the fourth straight game where he failed to record more than four strikeouts.

Editor's Note: RotoBaller offers the best Premium MLB Subscription - only $1.99 per week. All the tools you need to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Under-the-Radar Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, plus daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

 

Week 13 Buys

Marcus Semien, SS, Oakland Athletics

Shortstop has been a stronger position in fantasy than usual this season, but it's still surprising to see Marcus Semien available in the majority of leagues. After all, he's hit more homers than Carlos Correa and driven in more runs than Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager. Semien ranks in the top 10 at the position in all of the standard categories except for batting average. He's hit .286 in June, however, thanks to a normalized BABIP and a marked decrease in strikeout rate. After posting a lousy .207 average in April, he's hit .266 since. The Athletics' shortstop is on pace for 30 homers and double-digit steals, yet he's owned in significantly fewer leagues than Addison Russell, Starlin Castro, or Elvis Andrus.

Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees

Pineda’s early season struggles were well-documented. Despite his typically excellent strikeout and walk rates, he was getting shelled on a regular basis. Over the last month, however, Pineda appears to have turned things around. He’s continued to rack up whiffs and suppress free passes, and is allowing fewer home runs and lower quality contact. He’s been a top 10 pitcher by K-BB, FIP, and SIERA. The full-season numbers still look ugly, but the window to buy low should be rapidly closing here.

 

Week 13 Sells

Carlos Gomez, OF, Houston Astros

There’s been a lot of talk about how Gomez’s recent performance means he could be on his way back to being, if not a top-tier outfield option, at least worth rostering. Let’s pump the brakes a bit, here. While he’s definitely looked much better lately, he’s still been whiffing in over 30 percent of his plate appearances. The .407 BABIP isn’t likely to hold up even though his quality of contact supports an above-average mark. And that hard contact hasn’t really translated into power, as Gomez is slugging just .448 thanks largely to a groundball-heavy profile.

Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves

There’s no question that Teheran has been better than he was in 2015. But how much of his performance is legitimate? A quick look at the peripherals suggests “not a whole lot.” His walk rate is back down to pre-2015 levels, which is good. He’s also inducing plenty of pop-ups, which is great. Beyond that, though? We’ve got an elevated strikeout rate despite a SwStr% that’s actually lower than any Teheran has produced in the last three seasons. There’s the career-worst hard-hit rate. He’s still vulnerable to the long ball. And then, of course, we have the elephant in the room – a .209 BABIP on the season, and .128 (!!!) over the last month. Sure, the pop-ups and flyball-heavy profile help suppress it, but that .209 mark would be the third-lowest BABIP by a qualified pitcher in the last 45 years.

 

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