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Poetry in Motion: The Five Tools of Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve is the American League Most Valuable Player. OK, it's still a bit early, but if a vote were taken right now, he would be heavily considered along with Manny Machado and Robinson Cano. In reality, he might finish third at the moment, mainly because the other two are on first-place teams. The Astros have been one of the more disappointing teams to start the season, in spite of Altuve's amazing production. At the time of this writing, they were 14-21, tied with the rebuilding Oakland A's and barely ahead of the injury-depleted Angels. Altuve is doing his part, however, with a .321/.409/.635 line, nine home runs and 22 RBI. He is currently 10th in AVG, 4th in OBP, 5th in HR, and 14th in RBI. What truly separates him from the others is his speed. Altuve leads MLB with 13 SB, while Cano and Machado have none. Altuve's stolen base totals the last four years speak for themselves: 33, 35, 56, 38.

Altuve steals third base

We've seen this for the past few years. Remember when Altuve was an NL All-Star in 2012 only because they didn't have anyone else worthy of making the team?

Altuve may or may not win the MVP, but many fantasy baseball owners will win leagues because of his prowess at the plate. While real-life MVP votes are driven by winning, fantasy baseball is driven by statistics. When you look at the whole package, Altuve has become the most valuable fantasy baseball player around. Yahoo! rankings have him #1 overall and Fleaflicker lists him first as well, a whopping 22 points ahead of second-place Nolan Arenado. Altuve has become an elite commodity in every single category, but will it last all season or will he come crashing down to Earth soon?

It seems his current home run surge is unsustainable unless Altuve has suddenly transformed into a power hitter. His 5'6", 165 lb. frame suggests that is highly unlikely. In trying to recall someone else who showed strength in such a small package, this is what came to mind:

antman2

I don't know if Ant-Man will stick as a nickname for Altuve, but it seems pretty appropriate.

A look at the peripherals shows that Altuve's season may not simply be a Brady Anderson-esque aberration. Altuve has increased his ISO each of the past three years, up to an incredible .314 ISO this season. So, why is he suddenly bringing so much power to the field, instead of being the light-hitting speedster everyone expected? Simply put, he is hitting more fly balls rather than putting it on the ground like many speedy hitters purposely do. His ratio of ground balls has decreased each of the past four years, down to a 0.74 GB/FB in 35 games this season. In addition, a greater number of the fly balls he hits are leaving the yard. His 13.8% HR/FB% is significantly higher than his 3.9% career average, but it too has been steadily increasing the past four years until this season's explosion. Here is what a typical Altuve at-bat looks like this season, even leading off the game:

Altuve leadoff homer

Will he keep this pace up all year? Don't count on it. Is it fun to watch? Oh yeah...

Altuve blasts HR to left

Just for reference, here is Altuve's ridiculous heat map for the 2016 season:

Altuve heat map

It seems he prefers the ball anywhere in the vicinity of the plate.

In referring to him as a five-tool player (he is), I would be remiss not to mention his 2015 Gold Glove award. He faces some tough competition with Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler and Jason Kipnis among the leaders right now. Few leagues use fielding percentage as a scoring category, but in case you were wondering, Altuve's career .988 FLD% will help you there as well.

Altuve gold glove play

Fantasy owners who drafted Altuve are undoubtedly grateful, but when a player exceeds expectations or dominates early in the season, there is often a temptation to "sell high." This strategy is effective if you expect that player to experience a noticeable regression for the remainder of the season. In this case, it is safe to assume Altuve will finish the year well over .300 and will be hard-pressed not to win the stolen base crown. It may be unreasonable to expect a 30 HR season, but 20-25 is very likely. If someone offers a bounty, by all means take advantage of it. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the fruits of your smart drafting. You may just have the 2016 Fantasy Baseball MVP on your team.

 

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