Rotoballer is always one step ahead of the competition, and with our premium ADP Draft Sleepers Tool we've done it again.

Our premium tool allows you to choose a player and discover players who will provide similar production but cost you less. Rotoballer's premium users get the edge over the competition by using our tools to crush every draft! Over the next couple weeks I'll be looking at some examples of players I believe to be overrated or underrated, and show you where to find superior or avoid inferior value picks at that position--using our premium tools, of course.

Todd Frazier - Overvalued Third Baseman (3B)

Frazier is widely regarded as a top-five third baseman heading into 2016, and with good reason. The veteran has established himself as legitimate 30/15 candidate in the last two years, and at age 30 he can't really be described as "aging" yet. However, there is some cause for concern, especially given his current ADP (51).

His batting average leaves plenty to be desired, as he's never hit over .273 in the major leagues. While this isn't a huge factor, especially at third base, it has to be taken into consideration when trying to find value come draft day. He did slug 35 homers in 2015, and I expect him to regress in a big way in 2016. Frazier's ISO was a stellar .242 last year, which is significantly above his .195 average from the three previous years. His current ADP indicates that many expect him to exceed 30 homers again, while I believe it's far more likely he falls in the 18-24 range.

His perceived speed also may be a mirage. After swiping 20 bags in 2014, Frazier regressed to 13 in 2015. As I mentioned, he's not an old man by any stretch, but players typically don't increase their stolen base totals with age.

As the ADP tool indicates, there are cheaper options available that will provide very similar if not better stats. The two that jump out to me are Adrian Beltre and Kyle Seager. Both should provide comparable power numbers assuming their health, and Beltre will almost certainly have a much higher batting average. All three players should have comparable slugging percentages, and assuming Frazier's ISO returns to his career averages the three should be similar in that regard as well. The big key here is that both Beltre and Seager will come at a much cheaper cost. In a 10-team league, we're talking four total rounds' difference. It just makes sense to wait on third base and take a quality starting pitcher in the fifth round versus paying a premium for a veteran who is due for regression across the board.

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