Rick Lucks analyzes Ian Kennedy as a 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper and draft value. This MLB starting pitcher projects to exceed his ADP and can be a sleeper.

2015 In Review

Ian Kennedy? Seriously? You want me to buy the bust that somehow fleeced the Royals for $70 million and a draft pick as a sleeper?

Yes, I do. Kennedy's 9-15 record and 4.28 ERA last season don't look great, but his xFIP was a much more palatable 3.70. The biggest difference is a HR/FB of 17.2%, a ridiculously high number that dwarfs both his career 10.7% figure and his previous career worst of 13.2% from 2013. While leaving Petco is usually a bad thing for HR/FB, Kansas City's Kauffmann Stadium is one of the few destinations that could help more than his previous address. I expect a rate slightly under his career average for 2016.

Does your league count strikeouts? Kennedy is actually quite good at striking people out, posting a 24.4% K% last season after a 24.5% mark the year before. The strikeout surge came as a result of a 2014 change in pitch selection that saw him decrease his 2-seamer usage (36.1% in 2013 to 9.2% in 2014) and develop a knucklecurve. Last season, Kennedy continued this trend by further cutting the 2-seamer (thrown just 2.6% of the time) and completely abandoning the weak curve that the knucklecurve replaced.

By PITCHf/x, this leaves Kennedy with a very strong strikeout arsenal. His best offering is a changeup that boasts a fantastic 19.4% SwStr% and elite 47.5% O-Swing%. The aforementioned knucklecurve checks in with a 11.3% SwStr% and 37.9% O-Swing%. He only used his slider 8 percent of the time in 2015, but it had a 12.9% SwStr%. Even the fastball posted a solid whiff rate of 7.9%. The heat's 59.3% usage rate and 56.3% zone% even allowed Kennedy to cut down on his walks last season.

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2016 Outlook

His new address also comes with one of the best defensive outfields in MLB history. Alex Gordon is elite by any defensive metric, and figures to be healthy all year. Lorenzo Cain is very good. Jarrod Dyson has been an elite glove in limited playing time, and figures to see the field more often this year. Kennedy has a career FB% of 40.7%, so elite outfielders should help him more than most. That's got to be good for his WHIP.

Kansas City's glovework is solid on the infield too, which should help mitigate some of the hard hit balls Kennedy allows. He is also backed by a strong bullpen that should be able to save his Ws for him. I think we can all agree the 2016 Royals will be better than the 2015 Padres despite what some projection systems say, so Kennedy figures to post a better record this year than last. Switching leagues isn't ideal, but all of the points in his favor should overcome it.

Conclusion

Yes, the Royals probably paid too much for Kennedy's services. However, he also signed up for a combination of ballpark and defense that figures to help the back of his baseball card almost as much as his wallet. The idea that the Royals overpaid him has made him dirt cheap in fantasy leagues, with an average FantasyPros ADP of 252 and no listing at all for Yahoo leagues. I think he's streamable in standard leagues and a must own in anything deeper. Don't let the bloated real world salary distract you from the fantasy value here.

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