Welcome to the Daily Fantasy Hockey (NHL DFS) Power Play Sleeper Picks article for games from 2/25 to 3/1. We're going to highlight a couple of power plays with great sleeper picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel GPP and cash games.
When you’re looking for some power play points out of your roster in daily fantasy hockey, matchups are always worth looking at. If you’ve got a dynamic power play matching up against a weak penalty kill — let’s say the Washington Capitals versus the Arizona Coyotes — it’s a situation worth taking advantage of. But, we generally judge a team’s power play and penalty kill by their success rate. We see that Washington scores on 23.2% of their power plays and that leads the league, ergo they’re the best power play in the league.
That’s not incorrect. Yet, power play success as it relates to daily fantasy is worth looking at from a different angle. The surrounding circumstances are worth looking at in addition to a team's success rate. Teams who are good at maintaining possession may draw more penalties -- or maybe they’re really adept divers -- and get more opportunities. More opportunities is good for total power play production, even if their success rate is not necessarily indicative of that production. Let’s look at two instances of power play percentage not telling the whole story and how that could be used to your advantage in the coming week.
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1. Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes have a 19.4% success rate on the power play. That ranks 12th in the NHL. However, they have put in 42 power play goals, which is tied for second most in the league.
When you're looking for goals in daily, the total goals scored matters. The 'Yotes are maybe the most obvious example of the disparity that can occur between a team's success rate and the number of actual points that are going up and resulting in points for your roster.
Arizona leads the NHL with 223 power play opportunities, creating 3.78 power plays per game on average. It's that huge number of opportunities they're getting that makes this an opportunity for you to add some power play production to your roster.
The main issue with banking on the Coyotes for production is that they split time between their units pretty evenly and the points get spread around. Though Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who ranks second in the NHL with 25 power play points, sees a huge amount of time on the man advantage, frequently playing on both the first and second units. Other players to consider on the Coyotes include Mikkel Boedker, Shane Doan, Max Domi, and Antoine Vermette.
On the other hand, with the production being spread through the two units, it may mean that there are cheap depth options for your roster that could yield some PPPs.
Favorable Matchups on the Horizon: 02/25 vs. Florida Panthers, 02/27 vs. Philadelphia Flyers
2. Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are in a similar situation. Their 19% success rate ranks 13th in the NHL, but their 40 power play goals are tied for fifth overall. With 210 power plays on the year — an average of 3.39 per game — they have the second most opportunities in the league.
While their success rate is in the middle of the pack, they have a lot of dangerous weapons. Tyson Barrie, Jarome Iginla, Nathan MacKinnon, Carl Soderberg, Matt Duchene and Francois Beauchemin all have in excess of 10 power play points on the year.
Like Arizona, maybe even moreso than Arizona, they're spreading the wealth around. They’ve scored the fifth most power play goals in the league and don’t have a single player ranked in the top 20 for power play points. (Tyson Barrie is in a 12-way tie for 23rd with 18 points.) That may be to your advantage for daily games. That means there are a lot of guys in Colorado with a chance to put up some goals on the man advantage and their fast transition game gets them power plays with frequency.
Favorable Matchups on the Horizon: 02/27 vs. Detroit Red Wings, 03/01 vs. Minnesota Wild
There are a lot of factors to take into consideration. Don’t be fooled by just looking over the power play percentage and assuming that's giving you the best opportunity to put up some power play points tonight. Find those surprising mismatches to try and dig up some gold.
A situation like Tuesday’s game between the Nashville Predators (11th ranked PP%, 9th ranks total power play goals) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (20th ranked PK%) was a great situation to pursue. It’s not just that it's a mismatch on the surface, but the opportunity for Nashville to get some power play opportunities was there. The Maple Leafs give up the 13th most man advantages in the league and the Predators draw the fifth most. Games like that are where you could find a recipe for power play success.
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