RADIO
When Jay Bruce hit 30+ home runs in three straight seasons (32 in 2011, 34 in 2012, and 30 in 2013), other teams took notice. In those three years, Jay Bruce’s average was .257; not spectacular, but also not horrendous, especially considering his RBI production.
Since 2013, Bruce’s has production dropped substantially. His slash line was a mere .217/.281/.373 in 2014 and .226/.294/.434 in 2015. His power took a hit as well.
Baseball is all about making small adjustments for large outcomes, and using the shift is a perfect way to do so. Jay Bruce’s sudden drop in production would normally make a case for a player who struggles against the shift, but FanGraphs tells us this is not the case. While Bruce’s pull rate in the last two years was 23% higher than the league average, his 2015 BABIP when hitting into the shift was actually higher than it was when there was no shift.
Ruling out the shift, we can look to injuries as a main culprit for Jay Bruce’s decline. With nagging knee and calf injuries, Bruce started pressing with his upper body and producing more ground balls. On draft day, buyer beware for Jay Bruce.
