X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Third-Year Starting Pitcher Breakouts

As much attention as has been heaped upon the stellar rookie class of 2015 (something I’m guilty of myself), there were plenty of breakout seasons from other young players. Today, we’ll take a look at a trio of third-year starting pitchers who made the leap: Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, and Danny Salazar.

The first overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft, the UCLA product had the velocity and the frame of an elite pitcher from day one. During his short time on the farm (he logged more innings this season than in his entire minor league tenure), Cole pitched well but never quite dominated. He acquitted himself well as a rookie in 2013, however, tossing 117 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 2.91 FIP. His 7.7 K/9 was a bit underwhelming, especially given that he had struggled to punch out hitters at Triple-A. All other indicators were good, however, as he limited walks and homers and induced a high number of grounders. He enjoyed a bump in strikeouts the following year, whiffing exactly a batter per inning, though modest upticks in both homer and walk rates contributed to a 3.65 ERA that, again, seemed somewhat disappointing for a player of his pedigree.

In 2015, however, Cole maintained the whiff rate and trimmed the other true outcomes to career-best levels. Much of his batted ball data has remained eerily consistent, and consistently excellent, since he broke into the big leagues. The one major difference between last season and his prior experience was pitch selection. Cole threw two-seamers and cutters nearly a third of the time as a rookie, but has almost entirely abandoned both offerings in favor of more four-seamers, more sliders, and a curve. The altered repertoire paid dividends, as only Clayton Kershaw got more out of his fastball, per PITCHf/x data.

Archer and Salazar both bring mid-90s heat as well, but they make their living with other pitches. For Archer, it’s the slider. Only Cole’s teammate Francisco Liriano got more value of that pitch than Archer did in 2015, and only Tyson Ross threw it more often. While the slider has always featured prominently in Archer’s arsenal, he’s tinkered with the release point and turned it into one of the hardest-thrown breaking balls in the game. This improvement was essentially the sole driver of his incredible gains in swinging strike percentage (3.5 points) and K% (eight points).

All of that is great. The downside, of course, is the specter of injury. There’s no clear consensus on the subject, but some evidence exists that heavy use of breaking balls increases the risk of a pitcher, well, breaking. At 27, Archer is also the oldest of the three pitchers we’re discussing, and Steamer does project some pullback on the gains he made this year.

After disappointing fantasy owners who paid an expectant price in 2014, Salazar actually opened 2015 in the minors for reasons that defy explanation. Fortunately, Cleveland came to its senses and brought him up two weeks into the year, allowing him to log a career high 185 innings. Salazar rode the best changeup in baseball to a 9.5 K/9 and chopped close to a full run off his ERA from the previous year. The arrival of Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela certainly aided in the latter, as those players shored up the Indians’ previously awful infield defense. Salazar also allowed fewer line drives, though he continued to struggle with the long ball. He could stand to benefit from improving his slider, which has rated as well below average each of the last two seasons.

All three of these guys should be fantasy assets in 2016, and will be priced accordingly. Going forward, however, Cole seems like the clear best option. He’s got the best team behind him, both in terms of defense and overall talent. His home park is pitcher-friendly. He (theoretically) puts less strain on his arm with his pitch selection. He will also probably carry the highest cost, though Archer’s gaudy strikeout totals should put him in the same tier. Rest assured – he’ll be worth every penny.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

San Francisco 49ers2 hours ago

Nick Bosa "Questionable At Best" For Week 12
MacKenzie Weegar3 hours ago

Notches Three Assists Against Rangers
Macklin Celebrini3 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Thursday's Loss
Nikita Kucherov3 hours ago

Comes Up With Three Assists Versus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan3 hours ago

Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
Zach Werenski3 hours ago

Enjoys Career Night With Five Points Against Lightning
Jack Hughes3 hours ago

Posts Three Assists Versus Hurricanes
Joonas Korpisalo3 hours ago

Records 21-Save Shutout Versus Utah
Jerry Jeudy6 hours ago

Leads Browns In Receiving In Week 12 Win
Nick Chubb6 hours ago

Scores Two TDs In Thursday Night Win Over Pittsburgh
Cleveland Browns11 hours ago

Kevin Stefanski, Andrew Berry Likely Returning To Browns In 2025
Deshaun Watson11 hours ago

Likely To Remain With Browns, Could Face Competition
Cedric Tillman11 hours ago

Enters Concussion Protocol
Cedric Tillman13 hours ago

Suffers Head Injury On Thursday Night
Wendell Carter Jr.14 hours ago

Out Against Lakers
Anthony Davis14 hours ago

Available Versus Magic On Thursday
Rui Hachimura14 hours ago

Unavailable Thursday
Carlos Ulberg15 hours ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir15 hours ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes15 hours ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA15 hours ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo15 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan15 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Yves Missi15 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
CJ McCollum16 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Friday
Alexander Mattison16 hours ago

Zamir White Miss Practice Again
Brandon Ingram16 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani16 hours ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge16 hours ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter16 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo16 hours ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley16 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson17 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson17 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins17 hours ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis17 hours ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul17 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy17 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk17 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle17 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann17 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges17 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.17 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes17 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin18 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George18 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon18 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman18 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson18 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov18 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts18 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Mikael Granlund18 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev18 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
TB18 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen18 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson18 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta19 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold19 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco19 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift19 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb19 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey19 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans19 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith21 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger21 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks21 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
22 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chandler Stephenson1 day ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson1 day ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist1 day ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies1 day ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund1 day ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine1 day ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale2 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal2 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat2 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg2 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole2 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
3 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri3 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
3 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
3 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
3 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
3 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil4 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes4 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer4 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
4 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
4 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
4 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva4 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy4 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop5 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig5 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal5 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic5 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones5 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP