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Even when the Cubs aren’t at home their messing up DFS slates everywhere. The two Chicago teams will clash at 4:10 on Friday, August 14th, thus eliminating them from the “main slate” today. That gives us 14 games to look at, and we have a handful of pitchers from which to choose from. With that being said, I do expect offense to be plentiful on Friday, due to some positive splits matchups and park boosts around the league. Let’s get to it.
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Offenses to Target for FanDuel DFS (Pitchers to Pick On)
Hopefully you read yesterday’s article and were informed that I am kind of altering this section for the time being. I want to focus less on pure stacking and more on pitchers to keep in mind when finding our value bats (or pitchers to pick on).
Aside from the two obvious hurlers playing at Coors Field (Tyson Ross and Yohan Flande), there are a few other pitchers who could find themselves in a tough spot come game time on Friday. One of those pitchers is Ivan Nova. Nova has the unfortunate task of facing death row (the Blue Jays’ top of the order), and he is in for a rough day if his stats are a good predictor. His decent-looking 3.52 ERA is masking a 4.34 FIP, mostly because of his surprisingly low .266 BABIP that is sure to go up. He also holds a 3.13 BB/9 in eight starts this year, and you certainly don’t want to walk the Jays. If Nova struggles with command and Toronto normalizes his BABIP numbers, he could be in for a short night.
My other two pitchers to pick on come from the same game. They’re also a little sneakier, so maybe they could help win a tournament or two. Martin Perez of the Texas Rangers and Nate Karns of the Tampa Bay Rays face off in Texas today. Although on the surface Martin Perez may seem like a decent tournament dart throw (due to his low FIP and high ground ball rate), he could be in for some trouble against the quiet but deadly Rays lineup. Tampa Bay has a .327 team wOBA against lefties, which is built up from players like Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, and Brandon Guyer. The Rays also have an increased chance to go yard every time they leave their pitcher-friend confines of Tropicana Field.
As for Nate Karns, this one is a bit more predictable. The Rangers tend to feast on righties (.321 wOBA against righties), and Karns has a 36.8 FB% that could get him in trouble. At home, a lot of those fly balls turn into long outs. He might not find the same outcome at Rangers Ballpark, as big bats like Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Rougned Odor, and Shin-Soo Choo can take advantage (among others).
As I stated in yesterday’s article, this doesn’t mean I’m going all out to stack these teams, but I am keeping them in mind if a conflict arises when deciphering between good values at a position.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for FanDuel
Max Scherzer (SP, WAS) - $11,400
There are a few good cash game options on the slate tonight. That should make things interesting. Corey Kluber, David Price, and Dallas Keuchel all crossed my mind before I went with Scherzer. Kluber is playing the Twins for the second time in a week (not to mention he’s the most expensive pitcher and the Twins are usually decent against lefties), Price gets the danger-in-a-pressurized-bottle New York Yankees as his opponent (they found their bats last night), and Keuchel faces a Tigers offense that is still very much potent on a good day.
Although the Giants put up two runs on Strasburg and limited him to six innings, they struck out eight times against the Nats’ righty. If Scherzer can finish off batters (like Strasburg struggled to do early) and command like we know he can (Strasburg walked two batters), we could see a dominant outing from the ace. The Giants seem to always manufacture some sort of run production, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Scherzer gave up a run on a Buster Posey single or something like that. However, I think he has the best chance for a win, and he has huge strikeout potential.
Robbie Ray (SP, ARI) - $7,000
Speaking of strikeout potential, my GPP pick of the day comes from a guy who has 21 strikeouts in his last 18 innings pitched. Ray has had some issues with walks the past few games, and he hasn’t exactly blown teams away, but you have to like his matchup against a poor Braves offense. In FanDuel, an 8-10 strikeout game can bump you way up the tournament standings. Ray has the ability to provide just that, and hopefully his red-hot D-Backs teammates can get him in line for the win, as well.
DFS Infielders to Target for FanDuel
You’ll notice very little exposure to Coors Field in these picks. That’s not because I’m ignorant, but I feel like those picks help no one. If you want to pay up for the Coors Field bats, be my guest. Robbie Ray will allow you to do that. My advice would be to find one or two cheaper Coors Field bats who found their way to the middle or top of the lineup. With that being said, CarGo and Justin Upton are very solid even at their high prices.
J.T. (Jacob) Realmuto (C, MIA) - $3,300
It’s a shame that FanDuel is starting to pick up on this guy’s wOBA splits (153 wRC+ against lefties), because I was really enjoying his low price tag week after week. Realmuto broke through on Wednesday with a three-hit game that left him a double shy of the cycle. He loves lefties (as mentioned above) and could have another big day against Jaime Garcia.
Prince Fielder (1B, TEX) - $3,700
Fielder is a hitting machine (no relation to Albert Pujols, and I’ve already mentioned above why I like him and his offense tonight. He has eight hits and five RBI in his last five games.
Kolten Wong (2B, STL) - $2,900
Although he seems to have lost his spot atop the Cardinals’ order (at least against lefties), Wong’s price has dropped significantly. He gets a righty in Tom Koehler on Friday, and I love his ability to get on base (five hits in last four games), steal bases (three steals in last five games), and score runs (four runs in last four games). Even if he does stay in the middle of the order, his RBI chances should outweigh the lost run or two.
Todd Frazier (3B, CIN) - $3,100
OK, who let the Reds fan into the FanDuel programming room? This is simply a bargain for Frazier, who has six hits and three RBI in his last three games coming off a slump. He gets a lefty in Alex Wood on Friday, and Frazier has a .158 wRC+ against south paws this year.
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) - $3,400
The Red Sox’ shortstop has been red hot as of late, and he might be someone to build around in all lineups on Friday. He has nine hits in his last five games, and he gets a lefty in Mike Montgomery (.408 wOBA against lefties). Bombs away!
DFS Outfielders to Target for FanDuel
Michael Brantley (OF, CLE) - $4,000
Brantley ruined by Beat the Streak pick last night (I just can’t get over that nine-game hump), but I’m not going to let that get in the way of my most recent man crush. Trevor May is a very hittable righty, which Brantley loves (149 wRC+ against righties). If you have money to spend on Friday (and for some reason you’re fading the big bats at Coors Field), this is where I would use it.
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) - $3,200
He’s not as cheap as he once was, but he also is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak in which he’s compiled seven hits in his last three games. Righty Bartolo Colon is not exactly intimidating either. Polanco could be a valuable, cheaper outfielder for cash or GPP lineups.
Yasiel Puig (OF, LOS) - $3,000
Here’s your gut call of the day. Puig has been so inconsistent this season that his numbers don’t show anything spectacular to get excited about. However, something tells me that he’s going to finish this season strong, and a young, inexperienced lefty is a good place to start. If you want to get dicey, take a chance on Puig while he’s inexpensive.
Good luck with your FanDuel and DFS lineups RotoBallers!
DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6PM on 8/14
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