RADIO
What Happens When Javier Baez and Archie Bradley Collide?
The final cycle of Fantasy Baseball ROIDS, your quasi-scientific guide to drafting players that will consistently outperform their ADP, has arrived.
Previously, we've talked about Ranking anomalies, new Opportunities, the impact of International players and the conspiracy of a Dark Horse in the draft.
Sometimes, I compare the ROIDS breakthrough to when Stephen Hawking discovered black holes. But instead of finding black holes, I find holes in rankings. Instead of studying the event horizon, I study prospects on the horizon. Instead of measuring mass and gravity, I consider the gravity of added mass to Pablo Sandoval’s fat gut.
ROIDS is like the equivalent of sending Javier Baez and Archie Bradley through CERN’s particle accelerator to smash them together and see what the tiny pieces look like.
This is the culmination of everything, plus a secret ingredient. The S in ROIDS is my Dad, the Soothsayer, whom I’ve brought in for questioning. But before we do that, I wanted to give my final sleeper pick.
During the 1999 MLB draft, Mike Trout was taken #25 overall. Surprisingly, there were 3 Outfielders taken ahead of him: Dustin Ackley, A.J. Pollock and Randal Grichuk. Only one has what it takes to be on ROIDS, Mr. Pollock.
He is the right age (27), has the right opportunity (healthy and batting leadoff for the DBacks), and with his injury last season, he is flying under the radar.
In 2014, he missed three months with a fractured a bone in his hand from a Johnny Cueto fastball. In 75 games last season, his 134 wRC+, puts him in Jose Altuve territory. If you can draft him in or after the 15th round (outside top 200 ADP) you will have a third outfielder with the potential of 15/70/30 and .288/.353/.427.
Pollock does come with injury risk as he has yet to reach 140 games in a season. But eventually, he ought to put together a healthy season. I use this same logic every year when considering Troy Tulowitzki.
The Interview
Two years ago, my Dad decided to join a my fantasy baseball keeper league I co-manage. He immediately traded Robinson Cano for a package of Matt Carpenter and Carlos Beltran. I thought he was an idiot. As it turns out, the deal made his team better. Ever since, I have studied his logic.
When I asked my Dad about Troy Tulowitzki, here’s what he had to say:
Dad: “I would rather have Jung-Ho Kang. He has more potential. Tulo has a bad hip and I don't trust hip injuries. Remember Bo Jackson? I also have a good feeling about Elvis Andrus, he is at the age where he is at his peak.”
(Soothsayer prediction #1: Kang will be ranked higher than Tulo in 2015 and grab Elvis)
Me: What is a personal fantasy baseball strategy you would be willing to share with the Rotoballers?
Dad: “Draft Relief pitcher tandems. Always get the setup man and the closer. It increases your chance of getting a hold and a save on the same day. Plus it increases your chances of getting both categories. Also consider teams with good pitching and bad offense, they will keep games close. Oh, and you know how people say you can't pay attention to Spring Training? Well I do.”
(Soothsayer prediction #2: Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee are a must have combo)
Me: Who can drink more Coors Lite? Wade Boggs or Bob Stanley?
Dad: Bob “Steamer” Stanley. Boggs is a chicken man.
Me: At the end of 2015 who will have the higher rank Wil Myers or Matt Kemp?
Dad: Kemp. I don't like Myers. He is always hurt. I would rather draft Chris Coghlan, they are very comparable.
(Soothsayer prediction #3: Chris Coghlan, Cubs OF, serious ROIDS sleeper)
Final Question: Are you better at fishing or fantasy baseball? What is the biggest fish you ever caught?
Dad: “I caught an eight pound largemouth bass. I’m a better fisherman and the biggest fish hide under the blueberry bushes. Patience is important in fishing, but I don't have patience in fantasy baseball. This year, I am not trading anybody for the first few months.
(Soothsayer prediction #4: 100% chance he makes a terrible trade within the first few weeks)
Honestly, I hope all of your teams suck. Thanks for reading ROIDS. Good luck, seriously. And like I promised, naked pictures of my Dad...
