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With More Playing Time, Tomlin Could Be A Fantasy Asset
Josh Tomlin isn't a sexy pick. Frankly, putting his name in a 2015 sleeper column seems rather like going to a wine and cheese night with a packet of American singles and a bottle Two-Buck Chuck. It'll get the job done, but people are going to roll their eyes.
Yet here we are. Spring Training is just around the corner and I'm telling you, in all seriousness, to keep an eye on Tomlin on draft day. Let's examine why.
On the surface Tomlin hasn't looked like much in the big leagues. Through 447.2 innings, he owns a career 4.89 ERA, with a 4.44 FIP to match. His career strikeout rate of 15.1% is similarly unimpressive. Underneath the hood, however, Tomlin's game has been evolving.
Ever since he broke into the major leagues, Tomlin has been known as a command-first kind of guy. In 2014 for example, he posted the 3rd lowest walk rate (3.1%) of any pitcher in the game who threw at least 100 innings. His career walk rate is an incredibly impressive 4.2%. To put that in context, Greg Maddux had a career walk rate of 4.9%.
Now Tomlin is no Maddux. While Maddux would cut through lineups with razor-sharp precision, Tomlin has historically struggled to put batters away with any regularity. What the comparison does show, however, is the incredibly rare company Tomlin enjoys when it comes to his singular talent to limit the free baserunner.
What to Realistically Expect in 2015
Last season Tomlin added a new facet to his game: strikeouts. While he had never posted a strikeout rate above 15% in any season prior, in 2014 Tomlin struck out 21.1% of the batters he faced. The reason this failed to translate into any marked improvement in his ERA is chiefly because he allowed too many home runs and had some terrible fortune on balls in play. Tomlin posted the worst BABIP of his career in 2014 and, together with his 1.56 HR/9 line, that caused him to limp out of the season with a 4.76 ERA (4.01 FIP).
Sabermetric research would suggest, however, that BABIP and HR/9 are two aspects of a pitcher's game over which they have the least control. As a result, many theorize that when projecting future performance, one should regress things like home runs allowed towards league average, instead crediting a player for what he has control over: walks and strikeouts. This is what xFIP does and xFIP seems to love what Tomlin has turned himself into. Were he able to maintain the gains he made in 2014, xFIP suggests that Tomlin is much more like a 3.16 ERA pitcher than the 4.76 ERA one we saw last year.
While I love the value a low-cost pitcher like Tomlin offers, it is admittedly hard to see him getting the kind of opportunity in 2015 that he'll need to realize it given the current state of the Indians' pitching rotation. The Indians have remarkable pitching depth going into next year, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Gavin Floyd, Trevor Bauer, T.J. House, Zach McAllister, and Cody Anderson all vying for playing time. Unless injuries take their toll, Tomlin is likely to start the season from the outside looking in. This diminishes his fantasy potential severely to start the 2015 season.
In Summary
Given the improvements he made in 2014 Tomlin is a classic end of the draft, upside pick, especially in deeper formats. On talent alone, I believe he has the potential to make an impact next season. What holds him back right now is playing time. Until Tomlin has a clear path to a rotation spot, I can't advocate drafting him outside of very deep mixed leagues or AL-only formats. His is a name I'd keep my eye on, however. As any Rangers fan will tell you, you never know how things can change when it comes to pitchers.
