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Lauren analyzes top fantasy baseball prospects risers, fallers, sleepers and busts for 2025. Her MLB rookies report for Week 5 and recently promoted prospects.~
It can be quick to judge a player a month into the Major League Baseball season, but it's important to remember that there are 162 games to a campaign. This is particularly true for rookies, who are getting their first taste of the big leagues and may need a bit to adjust.
Still, not many fans, or even analysts, practice patience when it comes to first-year players. That's why it's essential to examine the player as a whole, including the good and the bad. Sometimes statistics can be deceiving, especially in baseball.
Today, we will be looking at three such cases of top prospects, Roki Sasaki, Kristian Campbell, and Chase Dollander, who have just about a month of their rookie seasons under their belts and have experienced the highs and lows to go along with it.
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Roki Sasaki, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Roki Sasaki was the 2024 offseason's big international prospect after spending four spectacular seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Pacific League. The 23-year-old put his name on the map after pitching a perfect game in April 2022 and representing Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where he was teammates with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
That's why it was hardly a surprise when he joined his former WBC teammates in Los Angeles with the Dodgers in January 2025.
Track Record:
Rōki Sasaki, Nasty Slider. 🤕 pic.twitter.com/PE0lTt9LO1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2025
It may be tempting to write Sasaki off, especially after he got emotional after a rough start, but it is far too soon to do so. He's still young at 23, and he's still getting accustomed to MLB's rules and regulations, which differ from those in NPB, such as the pitch clock and the baseball itself.
Notably, Yamamoto struggled somewhat in his first MLB season in 2024, but eventually found his footing and now has a 0.93 ERA in five starts this year. Sasaki is a work in progress, and he has plenty of time to refind the form that made him so highly coveted during the offseason.
Kristian Campbell, 2B/SS/OF, Boston Red Sox
Kristian Campbell apparently made the best impression during this year's spring training of the Red Sox's "Big Three," which also includes Roman Anthony and Marcelo Meyer. Despite batting just .167 in 20 spring games, Boston liked what they saw out of the 22-year-old, and he broke the big-league squad out of camp.
In the first few weeks of the Sox's season, particularly with slugger Rafael Devers struggling, Campbell was a godsend. Unfortunately, he's since come back down to earth as April has progressed.
Track Record:
431 FT and 112.2 MPH off the bat 🔥
Kristian Campbell sent this ball packing for his first career home run! pic.twitter.com/1uPvvamJjC
— MLB (@MLB) March 30, 2025
Outlook:
On paper, Campbell's numbers look extremely promising. And while there should be no cause for concern yet, as he has just over 100 MLB plate appearances under his belt, he hasn't been hitting the ball hard. However, he offsets that by reaching base at an extremely high rate, placing in the 90th percentile in BB%, per Baseball Savant.
He began his Red Sox tenure by reaching base safely in 21 of 22 games, even breaking a previous Ted Williams record in the process. Perhaps some of it was luck, but Campbell's skills are undeniable. He still requires some fine-tuning at the MLB level, but the Red Sox should feel secure in knowing they made the right choice to start the year with him. And with Meyer and Anthony waiting in the wings, the future is bright in Boston.
Chase Dollander, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Having to make your MLB debut at Coors Field would be challenging for anybody, but Chase Dollander took it in stride. In his first start on April 6 against the pesky Athletics, the 23-year-old allowed four runs on seven hits, including two home runs, and struck out six in five innings of work. Not a great start, but all things considered, it could've been much worse.
Track Record:
The Rockies selected Dollander with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. He impressed through two minor league levels in 2024, posting a 2.59 ERA in 23 starts with 169 strikeouts in 118 innings. Dollander made just one Triple-A start before getting the call to the bigs. In that start, he allowed one run on six hits while striking out five and walking one in four innings.
Dollander followed up his shaky debut with a solid second start against the NL West-leading Padres. He fanned seven San Diego batters, allowing two runs on three hits in 5.2 innings. This brought his ERA down from 7.20 to 5.06 on the year.
That remains Dollander's best outing of the year thus far in terms of innings and strikeouts, earning him his first career W. Overall, he's 1-3 with a 7.91 ERA in four starts, striking out 21 batters in 19.1 frames of work.
Outlook:
It's been a rocky start (no pun intended) for Dollander, but it's nothing to be overly concerned about. The kid has the stuff to be an elite starting pitcher at the MLB level. His arsenal, consisting of a four-seamer (52.0%), cutter (22.5%), curveball (13.2%), and changeup, is the real deal.
Dollander's fastball sits in the 95-97 mph range and can reach 100 mph. His biggest enemy will be his home ballpark in Denver. The Rockies haven't exactly produced Hall of Fame-worthy pitchers during their history, and it's no coincidence. However, the organization is hopeful that Dollander can beat the odds.
Chase Dollander, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/emqnOuBJp8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2025
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