Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Bryce Eldridge's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.

Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect.

He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He made the final roster as a reliever, then began to bat in post-camp/pre-tournament exhibitions. Two weeks later, he was named the Most Valuable Player of the 18U World Cup after his very loud bat factored prominently into USA Baseball winning the tournament championship. And MLB amateur scouting personnel became increasingly interested in the two-way prospect as a bat-first position player.

Let us revisit that odyssey and review how his offensive fundamentals have evolved as a professional.

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August-September 2022 Live Looks

Eldridge impressed this observer in his first relief outing of the USA 18U Training Camp. Big arm-side run on the fastball and sweep on one breaking ball of the right-handed pitcher had some of the top right-handed-batting prep seniors- and juniors-to-be looking like they were standing atop ice. He even landed a swinging strikeout against lefty batter Kevin McGonigle, who is now an exceptionally difficult-to-whiff Tigers prospect.

The second of his two camp appearances was more pedestrian, perhaps not so surprising for a high school starter being brought back sooner on short-relief rest.

USA 18U coaches had trialed larger lefty-batting left-side-of-infield Eric Bitonti as the squad's first baseman, but he did not hit in camp and may have been nicked up defensively. Another prominent lefty batter from the 2021 team, Walker Jenkins, also came up empty at the plate in the wake of a summer hand/wrist injury. No Bitonti or Jenkins opened a door for test-driving squad reliever Eldridge as a left-handed batting first baseman and designated hitter in exhibitions that preceded the subsequent World Cup tournament.

His first big offensive game was a 3-for-3 with two walks effort at the Bradenton Pirate City complex that was capped off by a long three-run homer pulled to right field. Twenty-nine Eldridge World Cup tournament plate trips begat nine BB+HBP, seven strikeouts, two singles, a double, three homers, and a sacrifice fly.

Most impressive among the homers was one that cleared the tall center-field batter's eye at the Orioles' spring training field. In the event finale at the same stadium against the Chinese Taipei squad that had earlier defeated Team USA, the left-handed-batting Eldridge homered to left field to stretch a 2-1 final-inning lead to 5-1, then tossed a scoreless one-walk, one-strikeout bottom half to secure the gold medal.

Even while batting from a slight crouch, the physically imposing 6-foot-7 Eldridge routinely dwarfed the catcher and home plate umpire in the World Cup tournament.

Eldridge had opened his late summer stint with USA Baseball as a right-handed starter prospect who had an arsenal biased toward shutting down right-handed batters. He would finish it as an extreme left-handed power bat with a three-true-outcomes mix that featured extra-base hits to all fields, walks, and strikeouts.

Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model

My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.

Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.

Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.

Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.

To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).

What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.

A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.

A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.

The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.

Prospect Analysis: Bryce Eldridge

Evolution of Pro Plate Profile

During his senior spring in 2023, Eldridge battled an ankle injury that limited his pitching more than his batting. The Giants selected him with the 16th pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, and the parties agreed to a $4 million bonus that came out slightly below slot. But how would they deploy the two-way prospect?

Eldridge did not pitch after the draft. Instead, he played 26 games in right field and five at designated hitter in a 2023 pro debut split across Rookie and Low-A ball. BB+HBP was up and K Avoid was down, though neither mark was extreme. The 2023 Batted Ball Profile was heavy in IFFB Avoid but light in Pull OFFB. The very strong Eldridge generated 100 ISO despite so few Pull OFFB while with the Rookie club.

The high BB+HBP, low K Avoid, and all-fields ISO power skew to the 2023 pro debut FaBIO line did rather resemble how I had evaluated him during the USA 18U tour.

Eldridge mostly split 2024 rather evenly between Low-A and High-A, though he did complete the cycle of full-season affiliates via brief end-of-year stops in Double-A and Triple-A. A key improvement seen across all four stops was much better all-around hit fundamentals, as LD and Pull GB Avoid Ratings rose to be on par with previously high IFFB Avoid marks. With OFFB and Pull OFFB also rising, he had become a fundamentally sounder hitter and extra bases generator versus 2023.

BB+HBP were down at all 2024 stops aside from a 93 mark at High-A. K Avoid ended up 39 for 2024, just as in 2023. Same-Handed Pitchers outcomes emerged as a clear weakness of the left-handed batter; Overall Ratings against them (left-handers, for him) registered in the single digits at three stops, around a 74 earned at High-A. Eldridge again spent all season not as a position player, but instead as a first baseman (100 games) or designated hitter.

But wait, there is still more for 2024 ... the Giants sent Eldridge to the Arizona Fall League, too.

While in Arizona, he posted a minus BB+HBP, double minus K Avoid, and a plus batted ball profile still thicker in LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid elements that begat above plus AVG and ISO despite relatively few OFFB and Pull OFFB. Same-Handed Pitchers Overall Rating again registered in the single digits.

Eldridge had 12 plate trips in 2025 MLB spring games before being lost to a sore wrist that still sidelines him now. Strikeouts and absence of LD and Pull OFFB produced a zero overall, though Eldridge produced 100 AVG and 100 ISO on batted balls despite the emptier batted ball profile.

The major positive from a five-club 2024 first full season of minor league baseball was that Eldridge repeatedly posted above plus hitting fundamentals, besides just plus hitting outcomes. He hit because he should have hit, as opposed to because he was just so physical. And he was no longer mostly an all-fields power threat on batted balls.

Negatives included that BB+HBP and K Avoid often registered subpar to worse by rating in the range of seven to 45, eight to 10 times. Same-Handed Pitchers Overall Rating minus to below double minus at four of five stops beckoned questions as to whether the left-handed batter could be in MLB lineups on an everyday basis against left-handed starters.

Evolution of Pro Offensive Running

The 6-foot-7, now 240-pounder only managed a second percentile Offensive Running Rating over 115 assessed events in his 2023 pro debut.

The big fellow posted a surprisingly high above half plus (75) mark to open his 2024 in Low-A. That rating would return to below average at the subsequent stops per 38, one, 21, and 43 marks.

Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus

Eldridge profiles today as a plus hit, all-fields double plus power bat with average to half minus non-batted-ball (BB+HBP and K Avoid) outcomes. But walk outcomes should rise as he settles into a given level more permanently and pitchers increasingly tread carefully around the strike zone out of respect for his loud bat.

It should be noted that the one stop of his five-circuit 2024 tour, where each of BB+HBP and Same-Handed Batters Overall outcomes were up (not down or worse), was a High-A league that has only six teams. It was the one destination where the ex-two-wayer in transition to one-way, bat-leaning play faced the same pitcher fairly often. Among the wisest things the Giants could do in 2025 is park Eldridge with one club for a long spell and allow him to get repeat looks at the same circuit pitchers, especially left-handed ones, several times over.

The Giants were set to let what they saw in the 2025 MLB and MiLB spring games decide whether they assigned Eldridge to Double-A or Triple-A. The spring bout of wrist soreness upset that plan, and the organization has since announced that he will report to Double-A once declared fit to play.

Defensive play at first base remains rougher. There, he affords more of a big target and wider reach than an adept fielder. If he were to ever man a corner outfield spot in the San Francisco park, it would likely be the relatively smaller left field one, despite being blessed with the arm of a right fielder.

Having been so enamored before by his right-on-right exploits as a pitcher, I would have considered using Eldridge as a right-handed reliever a couple of times per week in games that he started in the field or at designated hitter. While the fact that starting pitchers and position players seldom develop at the same pace stymies pro development of that variety of two-way player, the reliever pathway affords more flexibility (via specialization in usage) and negligibly disrupts development of the position player.

By the end of 2025, fantasy players should have a clearer read on whether the multidimensional platoon defects against left-handed pitchers that arose during 2024 remain prominent enough to limit Eldridge's future major league lineup starts some to more.

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