Key Later-Round Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets - Expert Picks Using EDV (Expected Draft Values)

Welcome back to our EDV Series, today we're looking at key later-round draft targets based on EDV. We've already covered the early round draft targets and the middle round draft targets in this EDV series, so now we're unearthing the shiniest gold for those late-round fliers. Opening Day is March 27, but we know many of you are jamming in your drafts in the final week, so let us help you crush it with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify overvalued and undervalued players of all types.

Leveraging those numbers, we can list players with certain skill specializations such as power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and more. These late-round picks could become league winners, but the lower risk means we're okay with cutting bait in the early waiver churn. We will incorporate ADP, utilize our Expected Draft Values (EDV), and identify strong buys with my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return.

Due to factors such as name recognition, last year's surface stats, your fantasy platform's default rank, or viral social posts, ADPs often fall short of perfect science. This will identify high-upside picks using Expected Draft Values who will return a substantially positive value based on their aggregate ADP, their Expected Draft Value (i.e., the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and their projection.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, "Player X is a great value at that ADP."

We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts:

1) HR+BA+SB
2) HR+BA
3) SB+HR
4) SB+BA
5) HR
6) SB
7) BA

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a worthwhile power-heavy bat around pick 200? A power-speed threat near pick 250? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are imperfect, but it'll sharpen your draft tools. And yes, runs and RBI returns are incorporated as well.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Summary of Top Late-Round EDV Targets

**A quick note: You will notice that speed is a theme here, and power is scarce. It is easy for power to get pushed up, especially when you consider the implications for runs and RBI. Speed is easier to overlook on a relative scale, such as the ADP spectrum, which is why it is so helpful to have EDV set expectations.

Key Mid-Round EDV Players to Target

Pete Crow-Armstrong (ADP: 162) – EDV Cohort & Score: SB, +58

Crow-Armstrong turns 23 on March 25 and had a ripping 14-for-27 (.519) spring with three home runs and a pair of stolen bases. Last year was inconsistent at best, yet he still had 10 HRs and 27 SBs in 123 games. Anything above 25 bags with double-digit pop paints him as a plus buy unless he hits near the Mendoza line.

CUTTER projects 17 HRs and 32 SBs, and ATC sits at 14/31, both comfortably above the EDV line. And if the lefty is growing into more power with age, as hinted at this spring, then we’re cooking.

Xavier Edwards (ADP: 166) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+SB, +63

Edwards has hit for a high average with plus speed throughout his professional career, starting with a .346 average and 22 SBs in 45 games as an 18-year-old in 2018. While last year’s .328 average was still over his head on that .398 BABIP, he’s often had that mark settle around .360.

CUTTER projects a .290 average with 47 swipes across roughly 150 games. Even with zero power, hitting near .300 with over 30 steals is an automatic profit here. Those who targeted slower power bats early should highlight Edwards’ name on draft sheets.

Xavier Edwards has a lofty goal for 2025: “Swipe 60 bags” pic.twitter.com/lKQSKLHv7L

— Isaac Azout (@IsaacAzout) February 7, 2025

Michael Toglia (ADP: 169) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +27

Here’s a power bat who isn’t slow, though the batting average will have you wishing you had Edwards! Toglia is poised to be Colorado’s everyday first baseman after a strong four-month run to end the 2024 season. The 6-foot-5 slugger tagged 21 HRs with 10 SBs in 101 games, hitting .233 with a 31 percent strikeout rate. Take the good with the bad, eh?

Would you buy that over two-thirds of his homers came away from Coors? EDV says a power-speed bat going this late only needs a .226 average with 37 HR+SB and 133 R+RBI. Toglia came close to that in barely 100 games and now has some job security to focus on finding a rhythm.

Josh Lowe (ADP: 170) – EDV Cohort & Score: SB, +43

The obvious point for any lefty-swinging bat on the Rays is that they’ll play in a clone of Yankee Stadium.  Now 27, Lowe may be platooned away from southpaws again (45 ABs vs. LHP last year) but he delivers a 15/30 pace even limited to right-handed pitching.

Recall how Lowe socked 20 HRs in ~500 PAs in ‘23, with 15 coming on the road. ATC calls for 16 HRs/26 SBs in 500 PAs, while CUTTER is at 18/30. Both could be underselling the power play. Anything above 30 HR+SB is gravy per EDV, so there’s plenty of room here.

Tommy Edman (ADP: 193) – EDV Cohort & Score: SB, +86 / HR+SB +43

The later rounds bring more speed-oriented targets, but Edman also benefits from the Dodger team context. Last year, Edman tallied 65 R+RBI in 53 games for LAD when you include the postseason.

That’s on top of eight home runs and a perfect 11-of-11 clip on steal attempts. He’s already gone yard once in the Tokyo Series and looks like a trusted, everyday member of this juggernaut club.

Bryson Stott (ADP: 208) – EDV Cohort & Score: SB, +59

Stott’s Year 2 breakout was followed by an offensive dip in 2024. His average fell 35 points to .245, and he only hit 32 extra-base hits (11 HRs) compared to 49 (15 HRs) in ‘23.

But Stott and the team believe that was rooted in an elbow nerve issue, so there is reason for optimism. Stott still delivered 32 SBs (31 in ‘23) for us. CUTTER projects 13 HRs/28 SBs with a .257 average, and anyone hitting over .250 with over 40 HR+SB is a hefty buy.

Bryson Stott had a .393-OBP/.842-OPS his first 40 games last year before a nerve in his right elbow gave out after an awkward swing

He’s basically back to 100%, and I feel like he could be a legit 15-HR/40-SB guy 👀
pic.twitter.com/Hno4vrFrxL

— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) February 19, 2025

Victor Robles (ADP: 213) – EDV Cohort & Score: SB, +83

We’ll keep this brief as Robles got tagged on the right hand/wrist by a pitch and may miss time. But he came alive in Seattle with 30 swipes and a .328 average in 77 games after poor results in Washington, which automatically paints him as a high-upside, low-risk pick in the 200s. Early word on the HBP is optimistic:

Dan Wilson sounded optimistic that Victor Robles would be ok after getting hit by a pitch. Robles will still have to undergo an X-Ray and possibly other tests.

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) March 22, 2025

Tyler Fitzgerald (ADP: 249) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +74

Fitzgerald played 96 MLB games last year with 17 SBs and 15 HRs, but the 31.7 percent K rate was problematic. This has been an offseason focus because, in his own words, “with more walks come more stolen bases,” before adding, “I’m going to steal as much as I can.”

Fitzgerald’s 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed matched Elly De La Cruz (read that again), so while most projection systems sit under 20, CUTTER calls for 26 to go with 19 HRs. That’s nearly 50 percent more HR+SB production than EDV demands.

Trevor Story (ADP: 254) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +53

Unless you are from the future and know that Story suffered another injury, then I’m not sweating it this late in a draft. We have a former first-round talent whose bat has surely taken a hit since the Coors days (though Fenway is still friendly), but the man still runs.

Amidst myriad freak injuries, Story has 16 SBs in 69 games over the last two seasons. We haven’t seen him fly for an extended period of time with the new SB-friendly rules.

Jung Hoo Lee (ADP: 261) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+SB, +44

Lee has battled back tightness throughout mid-March but is nearing a return, so let’s relax (for now). The 26-year-old is slated to bat third after his rookie season was cut short by a shoulder injury after 37 games. We saw fantastic bat control and discipline but few barrels as he adjusted to MLB.

He tagged two homers in 12 spring contests, but the power is all extra. Snagging a high-contact bat this late, let alone one in a premium R+RBI batting slot, is a great last pick in our 2025 fantasy baseball universe.

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