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Why take starting pitchers early in drafts when you can wait and get value with a deep class of solid starters set to take the mound this season?
Brandon Pfaadt, Clay Holmes, and Nick Lodolo are all interesting fantasy targets this year, but which of these three can be considered "sleepers" at their current ADP?
Should you draft Pfaadt, Holmes, or Lodolo in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2025 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
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Brandon Pfaadt Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 167
Current ADP: ~196
Brandon Pfaadt did not break out last year, but he showed positive signs that one could be coming. What immediately jumps out to me is he increased his strikeout rate, while limiting walks, finishing with an 18.8 percent K-BB rate.
There were 30 starters last year to go at least 50 innings and post a K-BB rate that high or better. Of those 30, only two had a higher BABIP than Pfaadt's .315 (the highest was .318). That shows that luck was not on his side.
There is plenty to like as well, such as all of the ERA indicators being around a run less than his actual ERA. He also reduced his barrel and hard-hit rate from the previous year, while generating a lot more groundballs. If he has a little better BABIP and strand rate luck, the breakout could be in store.
Pfaadt came up with hype after having success in the minors. The hype has started to dwindle, which is exactly when you should buy in.
Clay Holmes Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 234
Current ADP: ~243
Last year, the Mets were able to transform Sean Manaea into a fantasy SP2, while making Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and David Peterson very fantasy relevant arms.
David Stearns and company have been helping elevate pitchers for years now, going back to his Milwaukee days. They see something in Clay Holmes as they paid him starter money very early into free agency.
Clay Holmes pitch usage this spring:
Sinker - 26
Sweeper - 15
Slider - 13
4-seam - 11 (new)
Kick change - 8 (new)
Cutter - 3 (new)6 IP / 0 ER / 5 K
— Underdog MLB (@Underdog__MLB) February 27, 2025
Holmes may have a reputation as an up-and-down closer, but that is why he is basically free in a lot of drafts. But we know he has the stuff to miss bats and pitch at a high level in the bigs. He has looked good in spring training and is throwing three new pitches, which is nothing new to pitchers under Stearns.
This is more about taking a cheap gamble on a team that turns failed pitchers around before. You can also take a cheap pick on Frankie Montas, who brings even more upside, but you will have to wait for him to get healthy first. Lastly, Max Kranick is a name to add to your watch list and for you NL-only players to target.
Nick Lodolo Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 216
Current ADP: ~240
Lodolo, a former blue-chip prospect, has struggled through some arm issues early in his career, topping out at just 115 innings last season in 21 starts. But the six-foot-six lefty is still just 27 years old and possesses some impressive tools in his arsenal.
He throws his fastball around 94 MPH on average, but it plays up a bit because of his length and because he has such an effective breaking ball to keep hitters off balance. His curveball is one of the filthier pitches, with a Stuff+ rating of 125, 35.2% CSW%, and .171 xAVG last season.
Nick Lodolo, Wipeout 83mph Breaking Ball. 🌊 pic.twitter.com/NSf7JEB9yc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2024
His K% dropped to 24.7% last season - which is still solid - but he flashed 28% and 29% rates in his first two seasons and has a career SwStr% of 13.5%. He has major swing-and-miss stuff but his Location+ of 99 suggests that he still needs to improve his location to truly harness his upside.
If he can stay healthy this year, we could see him emerge as a legit ace alongside Hunter Greene in the Cincy rotation. His stuff is that good; he needs to continue to focus on locating his pitches and developing more consistency. He's oozing upside and is an easy pick this late in drafts, as there's very little risk attached to taking him here.
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