Najee Harris's Fantasy Football Potential is Super-Charged in LA

The heart of the NFL Free Agency is already behind us. Minor deals will be made from now until training camp, but the big fish have been signed. We've also seen several trades go through, and there will likely be more, especially as we lead up to the NFL Draft. However, Najee Harris, the former Pittsburgh Steelers running back, is one big domino that has fallen.

He signed a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers on the opening day of the NFL Free Agency. He'll replace J.K. Dobbins and become the lead-back for the Chargers this season. Harris has been a dependable and consistent player for the Steelers; however, in fantasy football circles, he's often viewed negatively. Sometimes, very negatively. How much of that is on Harris, and what can fantasy managers expect from Harris this season in Los Angeles?

In this article, we'll review Harris's career in Pittsburgh and look forward to the 2025 season. We'll determine what fantasy managers should expect from him this season and what kind of fantasy football value he has. Sign up for our Premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10% discount.

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Four Seasons in Pittsburgh

Fantasy managers indeed have opinions on Najee Harris, and most are not good. It's somewhat astonishing, considering he's one of just five running backs to start his career with four straight 1,000 rushing yard seasons. The other four are Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis, and LaDainian Tomlinson. He's also the only running back in the NFL who has played all 17 games in each of the last four seasons. Considering those two stats, it's incredible how many fantasy managers will want nothing to do with Harris in 2025, but is that the right call?

Harris finished as the RB27 in half-PPR PPG last year with a 10.8 PPG average. In 2023, he was the RB32 with a 10.0 half-PPR PPG average. His 11.8 half-PPR PPG average in 2022 was RB22. That's light-years away from his RB6 finish as a rookie when he finished with a 16.0 half-PPR PPG average. Based on his production, he's been a middling RB2/3 for the past three seasons, so there's a reason fantasy managers have soured on him a bit. The question becomes, was that all his fault?

In 2021, the Steelers still had Ben Roethlisberger. Now, Big Ben wasn't great anymore, but he was still good enough to lead an average offense. He threw for 3,740 yards, completed 64.5% of his passes, and had 22 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. He wasn't lighting the NFL on fire, but he wasn't a negative, either. Pittsburgh still finished just 21st in points scored and 23rd in total yards gained. That year, Pittsburgh's offensive line ranked 26th, according to PFF. They generated just 0.9 yards before contact on average, which ranked 29th.

Harris endured the combination of Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky the following season. They finished 26th in points scored and 23rd in yards gained. Their offensive line finished 16th in PFF's final rankings, a solid improvement from the previous season. However, Harris had the sixth-most runs with seven or more men in the box with 213. That was 78% of his total rush attempts. Not surprisingly, defenses were not afraid of Pickett or Trubisky beating them.

In 2023, the Steelers finished 28th in points scored and 25th in yards gained. Pickett, Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph all saw time behind center. The Steelers' offensive line ranked 17th according to PFF's final rankings. Harris had the third most carries with seven or more men in the box this time, just shy of 80% of his carries. Keep that in mind when you look at his yard-per-carry averages. This only tells half the story.

The other half includes average to foul offensive line play and dreadful quarterback play, which resulted in him running against 7+ men boxes on 80% of his carries. It's not a recipe for success for anyone—well, unless you're Derrick Henry. But we shouldn't judge Harris harshly because he isn't him. Who is?

This past season, the Steelers had Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. They finished 16th in points scored and 23rd in yards gained. In Harris's four seasons in the NFL, Pittsburgh has never, not once, finished higher than 23rd in yards gained. Their average ranking is 23.5. 2024 was the only season in which Pittsburgh finished higher than 21st in points scored. Their average finish in Harris's four seasons is 22.7. Their offensive line finished 27th in PFF's final 2024 rankings. Their average ranking over the past four seasons is 21.5, and they never finished in the top 15.

In 2024, only Saquon Barkley and Henry had more rush attempts with seven men or more in the box. Harris finished with 227 such runs, a whopping 86% (!!!) of his carries. For reference, J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers' 2024 starter, had seven men or more in the box on just 70% of his carries. That still sounds like a lot, but it's nothing compared to Harris's 86%.

In his four seasons in Pittsburgh, Harris has had seven or more men in the box on 75% of his runs. Over the past three seasons, since Roethlisberger's retirement, that number has jumped to 81.5%. Maybe, just maybe, Harris's inefficiency isn't all on Harris.

2025 Projection

Let's get this out of the way real quick - the Chargers will not be drafting a running back very high. They don't have a tight end. They have one good receiver, and they could use more depth on the interior of their offensive line. We haven't even gotten to the defensive side of the ball, where their best pass-rusher is the 35-year-old Khalil Mack. I know this draft class is stacked at running back, but if they intended to target that position, there would have been no reason to sign Harris. He's going to be their workhorse.

He has had 381, 313, 284, and 299 total touches in four seasons. Think about that. There are excellent running backs who go a whole career without having 284 touches, and that's the fewest Harris has gotten in four seasons. He averages 319 touches per season.

Here's another thing to consider: Harris has never scored more than 10 touchdowns despite those high-touch numbers and being healthy for all 17 games. The most rushing touchdowns he's had in a season is eight. He's never had fewer than 255 rushing attempts and fewer than 17 games. Dobbins had nine rushing touchdowns last season on 195 carries and in just 13 games. He scored on every 22nd carry. Harris has scored on every 40th carry as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harris has significantly more scoring upside as a Charger.

The Chargers' offensive line should be even better this season. With Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, they have a top-5 tackle duo in the NFL. The Chargers also finished 11th in points last year. With Ladd McConkey going into his second season and the entire team having been in Harbaugh and Roman's system for a year, we should expect improvements across the board.

Last year, the Chargers had 373 running back carries. That's a healthy number. However, they also targeted their running backs just 55 times. That's not ideal at all, and it's hugely important. Harris had 94 targets and 74 receptions in his best fantasy season. Over the next three years, he averaged just 46 targets and 35 receptions per season. He may struggle to reach those numbers in Los Angeles, hurting his fantasy value.

In the Chargers' first four games, they had 97 running back carries, an average of 24.25 per game. Over their final 13 games, they had 276 running back carries, an average of 21.23 per game. As the season went on, the Chargers started to pass the ball more frequently. This shouldn't be entirely surprising. A passing system can take more time to implement and gain comfortability than a running game.

Using that second number, the Chargers' offense should expect around 360 running back carries in 2025. Harris has handled 62-63% of the team's running back carries in the past two seasons in Pittsburgh. That was with Jaylen Warren, who is far better than anyone the Chargers currently roster behind Harris at running back. If he handled 62.5% of the 360 carries we expect, he'd finish with around 225 carries. In 2022, he managed 72.5% of Pittsburgh's running back carries; in 2021, it was 85.7%.

At 72.5%, he'd have 261 carries in 2025. At 85.7%, he'd have 309, which isn't realistic. The most likely answer is somewhere in the middle. I'd expect somewhere between 65-70%. That would give him a range of 234-252 carries. In his four seasons, he's averaged 3.8-to-4.1 yards per carry. Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry. It's reasonable to expect his yard-per-carry average to increase with the offensive line and fewer seven-man boxes. Harris was at 4.0 and 4.1 the past two seasons.

If we give him a range of 4.4-to-4.6 on his 234-252 carries, his expected rushing yard total would be 1,030-1,159 rushing yards. That's not so different from where he's been the past three seasons in Pittsburgh. The potential comes with touchdowns. Dobbins had nine last year on 195 carries. Harris had six last year on 263 carries. Had Dobbins been healthy, he likely would have finished with 12-13 touchdowns. Harris hasn't scored double-digit touchdowns since 2022 and has never scored more than 10.

In Los Angeles, 10 touchdowns seem like the floor for Harris, but the ceiling could be as high as 15. As far as targets and receptions, fantasy managers shouldn't expect much. We'll give him a range of 20-35 receptions for 120-245 yards. How do these projections translate to fantasy football? If we calculate the bottom of these numbers, he'd finish with 185 total half-PPR points and a 10.8 PPG average. At the high end of these projections, he'd finish with 247.9 points and a half-PPR PPG average of 14.5.

Based on 2024 running back scoring, this gives him a projected range of RB12-RB27. The broad discrepancy details how close the running backs are in this range and how important touchdowns are. That's not surprising, but scoring 10 touchdowns vs 15 touchdowns will (obviously) have a massive difference.

It'll be interesting to watch where he ends up being ranked once the free agency dust and NFL Draft are complete. Assuming he ends up being ranked in the RB20-24 range, Harris will be a player fantasy managers should target this season.

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