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Every year, there are surprise teams that make the Final Four. Most of these teams are unexpected. Rarely does it turn out to be all No. 1 seeds who make it. So, if your bracket finishes with this, recheck your math.
Last season, an underdog team that ruined brackets was 11th-seeded North Carolina State. The Wolfpack only made the NCAA Tournament by winning the ACC Conference Tournament. From here, they went to the Final Four with wins over Alabama and North Carolina. The same can be said for the other bracket-busters of history.
From the early days of the Gonzaga Bulldogs to the VCU Rams, the Sister Jean-led Loyola-Chicago, and George Mason, all these teams have something special that shows out in March. But they were not one of the favorites and were not listed by Las Vegas as such. One of these types of teams might just make it on my list as a pick, though. However, we're diving into more realistic Final Four picks rather than potential Cinderella teams.
Final Four Picks
Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers have been the best team in the country for most of this season. Even without star forward Johni Broome for a game, Auburn still retained its No. 1 ranking. At 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds, Broome is averaging 18.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game.
With a 94-78 victory over Kentucky on Saturday, Auburn clinched the SEC regular-season title and locked up the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The Tigers ranked No. 5 in the nation in scoring offense at over 85 points per game. While they rank outside the top 50 in scoring defense at nearly 70 points per game, they still rank No. 7 nationally in scoring margin.
The Tigers have been winning their games by an average margin of 16 points per game. Despite allowing 24 offensive rebounds to Texas A&M Tuesday in an 83-72 defeat, no team in the country can match the Aggies on the offensive boards. Texas A&M is ranked No. 1 and is averaging 15.86 offensive rebounds per game.
If the Tigers do not make it to San Antonio, it might be the biggest upset of the 2024-25 season.
Duke Blue Devils
I know what you are thinking. Cooper Flagg and who? It is not so simple. Break down the stats and you find an elite all-around team. A team that should potentially be the odds-on favorite to win it all. Even over Auburn.
Let us look at the numbers. While Flagg averages 19.6 points per game, he is not the only scorer. The Blue Devils have three players averaging more than 11.5 points.
Cooper Flagg tonight:
- 28 Points
- 8 Rebounds & 7 Assists
- 2 Steals & 3 Blocks
- Only One TurnoverOver 45,000+ players have played a DI game this century and NO ONE ELSE has matched that stat line ‼️ pic.twitter.com/hwd2caFye9
— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) March 4, 2025
Duke ranks No. 13 at 83.5 points per game while it ranks No. 6 in team defense at 61.1 points per game. This makes it No. 1 in the country in terms of average margin of victory at 22.4 points per game.
On top of this, Duke is ranked No. 4, allowing just 38.19 percent shooting to opponents. Do not send it to the free-throw line, either. The Blue Devils rank No. 17 nationally, hitting 78.31 percent of their shots from the line.
If Auburn is a lineup with no weaknesses, Duke may be next on the list. And it has a better defense. If Auburn and Duke match up in the national championship, it might just be an instant classic. If they both end up on the same side of the bracket, it would be a shame.
Houston Cougars
Kelvin Sampson once again has a No. 1 seed in the Houston Cougars.
Houston came into the elite Big 12 last season and said, “I thought this was going to be tough.” Instead, it has dominated a conference which, until this season, has been the best basketball conference in the country for the past decade.
But this season, with the SEC set to get 13 teams into the tournament and Big 12 teams like Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State looking mediocre, the Cougars have been having an even easier time. This will allow Houston to gain another of the No. 1 seeds, likely in the Midwest region, to make it back to Texas and San Antonio and a hopeful showdown with Auburn.
Allowing just 58 points per game on the season, Houston once again ranks No. 1 in scoring defense. The Cougars, allowing 38.4 percent shooting to opposing teams, also rank No. 5 in the country in this statistic.
The defense has always been elite in Houston under Sampson. It will once again determine how far the Cougars will go in March. Last season, they had an unfortunate injury to All-American Jamal Shead during their Sweet 16 game against Duke. Although Houston was still able to force 14 turnovers from Duke, it still fell for the second straight season in the round of 16.
After the agonizing 54-51 defeat, the Cougars are determined to finally make it back to the Final Four. With Duke getting another top seed, Houston will not have to play it this season until a potential Final Four or national championship game showdown.
Team leaders L.J. Cryer (15 points per game), J’Wan Roberts (6.3 rebounds per game), and Milos Uzan (4.3 assists per game), along with others, will look to do what the last two Sampson teams couldn’t -- advance to the Final Four.
Kentucky Wildcats
Wild card, yes. But also a name brand.
John Calipari, who was able to win a national title early in his Kentucky tenure, slipped in recent seasons. A loss to the St. Peter’s Peacocks as a No. 2 seed was the first sign things were going astray.
The final straw for fans and administration alike was the loss in the 2024 tournament to the Oakland Grizzlies in the first round. A second straight opening-round loss. Oh, that is Oakland, Michigan. Not California. Exit Coach Cal and enter returning son Mark Pope.
Pope, after being a part of the 1996 Kentucky national championship team, went on to drop out of medical school to follow his passion for being a coach. Coming from BYU, it was clear the Wildcats offense would entirely change. BYU lived and died by the three-point shot. In some circles, there was criticism as Pope has never led a team to a tournament win. But he is now working with more talent at Kentucky.
After a mediocre stretch of offense, Kentucky ranks No. 3 in the nation in 2024-25 with 85.6 points per game, behind only Alabama and Gonzaga. Kentucky ranks No. 34 at 37.32 percent on 785 three-point attempts. The Wildcats also have five players who all average more than 10.5 points per game. While guard Jaxson Robinson is out for the season, the team continues to have plenty of offensive firepower.
Under Consideration
Florida Gators
In all honesty, I got the Florida Gators at +1000 to win it all and took it. If I had to do it over, although I still like the Gators, I would take a different team.
Todd Golden, although facing pressure and accusations, has remained the coach and he has rewarded the loyalty of the university by having Florida ranked in the top five in the nation.
A No. 1 seed is still possible for the Gators after beating Alabama, and this would make their path better than if they fell to a No. 2 seed. We will have to wait until Selection Sunday as they will be one of three or four teams fighting for this final spot.
wednesday W 😎#GoGators | Presented by @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/oeislfSNxj
— Florida Gators Men’s Basketball (@GatorsMBK) March 6, 2025
William Clay Jr. leads the offense for the Gators, who are averaging 83.3 points per game and rank No. 9 nationally. On defense, the Gators rank No. 49, allowing 67.2 points per game, a full 1.6 points fewer than Auburn.
