Later Round Fantasy Baseball Power Hitters - Legitimate Home Run Surgers (2025)

As the saying goes, process over results. If we have a solid process, the results should follow. However, if we luck into results and think we have a sound process, we need to re-evaluate. We want to have a process whenever we select players for a column. For transparency, we've been looking at hitters with high barrels per plate appearance and bat speed since July 1. These players also tend to go beyond pick 200, though one of the players sneaks just inside.

We tend to have difficulties finding later-round hitters besides outfielders and platoon bats. That suggests we must prioritize certain positions earlier in drafts by using National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Average Draft Positions (ADP) as a guide to working backward. These five hitters look like potential value options for power in the later rounds.

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Do the skills align with the results? Or did a player's skills hint at better production? Let's examine five hitters with power surges, specifically via their skills in the second half of 2024, to potentially target in 2025.

Michael Toglia (1B, COL)

NFBC ADP: 189 (Since Feb. 15)

Toglia fits the prototypical power hitter profile, with near-elite exit velocity data, yet struggling to make contact. Among hitters with 400 plate appearances, Toglia ranked second in Expected Power Index (xPX) per Baseball HQ behind Aaron Judge.

Toglia's ridiculous power metrics help to boost his xBA (.237), nearly 20 points higher than his actual BA. He needs elite power skills to compensate for the 63 percent contact rate. For context, Toglia had the fifth-worst contact rate, tying him with Brandon Marsh and Mitch Garver among hitters with 400 plate appearances.

Toglia rocked a 13.4 percent barrel-per-plate appearance rate, ranking 16th in the second half of the season. That's over three percentage points higher than his season-long average (9.6 percent). Regardless, Toglia's power skills have been legitimate.

The interesting part of Toglia's profile was his double-digit stolen bases (10) since he peaked at 10 across two minor league levels in 2021. Toglia showed mediocre to below-average speed in the past, yet he converted 90 percent of his stolen base chances in 2024.

That's notable because the Rockies ranked 24th in stolen base opportunities and finished 28th in stolen base conversion rate (73 percent) last season. The data suggests being cautious with the stolen base volume increasing to another level with Rockies' hitters and Toglia.

Toglia should give us 25-30 home runs in 2025, given his elite power metrics, though fantasy managers will want to build around the batting average woes. Give Toglia a bump of about 100 plate appearances, and it could mean a breakout season.

Kerry Carpenter (OF, DET)

NFBC ADP: 209 (Since Feb. 15)

Carpenter had the eighth-highest barrels per plate appearance rate (15.6 percent) in the second half. That's over four percentage points higher than his season-long barrels per PA rate at 11.5 percent.

Carpenter had average plate discipline skills with a 71 percent contact rate, yet the near-elite power, evidenced by a 161 xPX, boosted the xBA (.280) to be close to his actual BA (.284) in 2024. Carpenter leans into the pull-heavy approach, with a 43.2 percent pull rate (2024).

He tends to be aggressive by swinging at in-zone pitches, with a 70.1 percent zone swing rate, over four percentage points above the league norm. Thankfully, Carpenter crushes the balls thrown in the zone, especially when he pulls them.

That's evident in Carpenter's 17.5 percent barrels per plate appearance and .695 wOBA when pulling batted balls in the zone (5.1 percent). It doesn't matter whether he pulls the ball; Carpenter crushes them when thrown in the strike zone, as seen in the visual above.

The outfield-eligible players have been popping up on the Tigers' injury reports. That injury list includes Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling, allowing more opportunities for Wenceel Perez, Carpenter, and Zach McKinstry. Carpenter likely remains a strong-side platoon option, especially since his splits against right-handed pitchers (176 wRC+) and lefties (18 wRC+) were terrible in 2024 and his career.

Based on past injuries (right shoulder, lumbar inflammation) that caused him to miss over a month in the past two seasons and the platoon splits, Carpenter's ADP around pick 200 feels rich. Theoretically, Carpenter's price should be closer to Luke Raley's, about 100 picks later. If anything, it shows us that hitters like Carpenter, with power surges and high-end skills, can be found throughout the draft.

Jesus Sanchez (OF, MIA)

NFBC ADP: 229 (Since Feb. 15)

Speaking of those skills and tools, Sanchez possesses them. Sanchez ranked 46th among hitters in barrels per plate appearance (9.9 percent) with a 71 mph bat speed, a six percent barrels per plate appearance rate, and 15 barrels since July 1. While that feels like several filters, it allows us to weed through the noise.

Sanchez tied for 19th in bat speed since July 1 at 75.3 mph, tying him with Jorge Soler and Tyler O'Neill to give us context on those two elite power hitters. The elite bat speed should be synonymous with Sanchez's profile, though the heavy groundballs (50 percent) have been limiting the barrel rates.

We saw Sanchez hit career highs in the volume stats, with some of his career-best exit velocity numbers. That's evident in Sanchez's second-highest xPX (120), career-best barrel per PA, and ninth-best average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) at 97.1 mph.

For context, Sanchez had a 96 mph EV on FB/LD in 2023, with 95.3 mph in 2021 and 2022. What adds to Sanchez's fantasy profile involves the career high in stolen bases. He possesses the athleticism and tools to give us the power and speed juice, but he lacked the opportunities before 2024.

That's evident in Sanchez's 15 percent stolen base opportunity rate in 2024 compared to his career rate of seven percent. Thankfully, Sanchez converted 88 percent of his stolen base chances in 2024, possibly hinting at a projection of double-digit steals in 2025.

Sanchez's platoon splits will be a concern for playing time, evidenced by his 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers compared to a 35 wRC+ against lefties in 2024. That's similar to Sanchez's career averages versus righties (112 wRC+) and lefties (42 wRC+).

It's easy to envision Sanchez repeating his 2024 season into 2025, with the power surges and skills translating into production after a post-hype sleeper for several years.

Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS)

NFBC ADP: 308 (Since Feb. 15)

When looking at players with power surges since July 1, Abreu posted a high-end 74.4 mph bat speed, with an above-average 8.1 percent barrel per plate appearance rate. Though that's not far off from Abreu's season-long averages, we've been teased by his tools before.

Abreu flashed the high-end xPX at 133 via the pull-heavy (45.2 percent) and flyball (47 percent) supporting the skills. Like other power hitters, Abreu's plate discipline challenges have been an issue, evidenced by his 69 percent contact rate.

Like Harrison Bader and other defensively-minded outfielders of the past, Abreu provides real-life value in the field via the defensive and athleticism metrics. That should lead to 10+ stolen bases with a slight bump in plate appearances, though the 12 percent stolen base opportunity rate and 72 percent conversion percentage don't pop off the page.

It's like this song is on repeat because the other limiting factor includes the platoon splits. Abreu had a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers compared to a 48 wRC+ versus lefties. That will likely cause the Red Sox to tinker with Abreu's playing time, though they may want his glove in the field.

Finding power and speed options later in the draft is challenging, and Abreu can provide both. Prioritize Abreu, especially in 15-team leagues with five outfielder spots.

Joc Pederson (UT, TEX)

NFBC ADP: 317 (Since Feb. 15)

In the second half of the season, Pederson rocked a 12.8 percent barrel-per-plate appearance rate compared to 7.6 percent in 2024. Unsurprisingly, Pederson's pull rate spiked to 52.4 percent, with a 24.5 percent home run to flyball rate since July 1. That's slightly higher than his 47.9 percent pull rate, an 18.9 percent HR/FB, and a 6.8 percent barrel per PA rate before July 1.

We've seen Pederson's pull rates fluctuate throughout his career, but they peaked again over the past two seasons. Pederson pulled the ball 50 percent of the time in 2024, with 46.3 percent in 2023, compared to a career average of 43.7 percent. Pederson can rock higher home run rates with heavy pull rates and high-end power skills.

Pederson has been a consistent strong-side platoon option. He posted one of his better seasons, with 23 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a .275 BA in 444 plate appearances. His batting average was interestingly over 30 points higher than his career norm.

It's mainly because Pederson's power skills remained in the high-end range, with a 133 xPX. Pederson's plate discipline has been average throughout his career, but that can work with his power skills.

However, he had two of his highest batting averages in 2022 and 2024. In those two seasons, Pederson's hit rate (h%) or BABIP went over 30 percent, though we know his batted ball profile with tons of flyballs doesn't lend itself to a higher batting average.

It might be fluky, but Pederson chased around two percentage points more than the career average while he swung in the zone at the lowest rate since his rookie season (2014). Considering the maintained in-zone and overall contact rates, this is probably not something to worry about.

The nine percent stolen base opportunity rate in 2024 was the highest since 2017, with five consecutive seasons below five percent. For context, the Diamondbacks had the most stolen base opportunities, ahead of the Dodgers and Yankees. That tells us the Diamondbacks had the most plate appearances where a runner was on first or second base with the next base open for a stolen base chance.

We have four UT position hitters, including Shohei Ohtani, Brent Rooker, Marcell Ozuna, and Kyle Schwarber, all going inside the top 80 picks. Pederson goes around pick 300 as the next UT-only hitter. With the platoon splits, it's hard to project more than 450 plate appearances batting in the heart of the Rangers' lineup. Buy at the price for cheaper power.

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