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If you need some fantasy baseball sleeper targets or you are looking to avoid busts, then you've come to the right place! Finding value in fantasy drafts is the most important thing you can do to build a winning fantasy baseball team.
Isaac Paredes, Michael Toglia, and Parker Meadows are all interesting fantasy targets this year, but which of these three are values at their current ADP?
Should you draft Paredes, Toglia, or Meadows in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2025 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
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Isaac Paredes Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 170
Current ADP: 191.0
Third baseman Isaac Paredes will be playing for his third team in two years after the Chicago Cubs traded him to the Houston Astros this offseason. However, this landing spot in Houston is great for Paredes' fantasy value in 2025. After hitting .238 at the plate with 19 home runs and 80 RBI a season ago, expect the 2024 All-Star to post even better numbers this year.
For starters, he'll be playing half of his games at Daikin Park (formerly known as Minute Maid Park). The Astros' home ballpark has a short porch in left field that sits at 315 feet. That certainly works in Paredes' favor, considering he has pulled every home run he has ever hit in his major league career. Last year, the third baseman would have hit 26 home runs at Daikin Park.
Isaac Paredes had 19 HR in 2024. He would've had 26 xHR at Houston's Daikin Park 👀
In @SlangsOnSports' Statcast Spotlight, BK and @mikelowell25 look at the @astros 3B's spray chart and how his pull rate will lead to success next season. pic.twitter.com/771Tcmiulq
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) January 16, 2025
Hitting behind stars like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Christian Walker should also help Paredes total more than 80 RBI in 2025. As a result, the new Astros third baseman is a great target in points leagues this season. His 37 percent launch angle sweet-spot rate ranked in the 79th percentile in 2024, and he is just two years removed from a 31-home run, 98-RBI campaign.
Michael Toglia Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 160
Current ADP: ~pick 173
Analysis: Toglia is a switch-hitter who flashed some serious power potential last season, but he needs his batting average and plate approach to progress to have a true breakout in 2025.
Last year, in his first extended time with the Rockies, Toglia hit 25 homers in 116 games while also tacking on 10 stolen bases. He only hit .218 but did have a .238 ISO and a .329 wOBA. He ranked in the top 10 percent of qualified hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Michael Toglia is destined for 30+ bombs in 2025 and I can’t wait to watch it go down
In the top 9% of the MLB in xSLG, EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%
pic.twitter.com/Z4kbNP1exn— Overdue Sports (@OverdueSports) December 30, 2024
While his overall numbers are a little one-dimensional with his low batting average and high strikeout rate, his splits show solid progress as the season went on. He started very slow, with a batting average of just .106 in March and April and .197 in the first half. He was significantly better after the All-Star break, with a .235 batting average and .336 wOBA.
One big part of that split was that his walk rate almost doubled from 7.8 percent in the first half to 14.7 percent in the second half. His strikeout rate was still over 30 percent, but he was much more willing to work a walk.
Not only did splits from the first and second halves show progress, but there also appears to be much more juice available for Toglia at Coors Field. He hit 17 of his 25 home runs on the road, posting a .328 wOBA and 110 wRC+. With half his games coming at elevation again this season, he could end up with even more home runs due to positive regression.
Parker Meadows Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 179
Current ADP: ~pick 190
Analysis: Parker Meadows came up as a prospect with a lot of hype, and when you look at his minor-league stats, you see why. He stumbled out the gate in 2023 and in his first go around in 2024. He was then recalled in August and raked. From that point on, he slashed .296/.340/.500 with six homers, five steals, a .204 ISO, and .359 wOBA.
Not seeing hardly enough Parker Meadows hype heading into the 2025 season and that absolutely needs to change pic.twitter.com/ZdtMQxor8H
— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) January 28, 2025
He is slated to hit leadoff for the Tigers so he should get plenty of chances to score runs. Meadows was awesome down the stretch, but that also happens to be when people tend to turn to football. That could lead to a breakout candidate being a little cheaper in drafts than he should be.
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