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Welcome RotoBallers to our salary cap league strategy article targeting pitchers with an average auction value (AAV) under $5. In the salary cap draft format, fantasy baseball managers are allowed to bid freely on any player they choose, so spending wisely is key.
Pitcher evaluation can be tricky, and you will likely have to throw some of your FAAB to pitchers who possess an AAV below $5. However, there's no need to feel unconfident with your $5 -- there are plenty of future aces and worthy cogs in this range, and we're here today to help you identify some value picks and potential fantasy baseball sleepers for auction drafts.
In this article, we will target the pitchers with average auction values of less than $5 that should offer the most value. Be sure to also check out more of RotoBaller's articles about fantasy baseball auction leagues.
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Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
$3 AAV (Average Auction Value)
It took until March for the Nationals to re-sign Kyle Finnegan, their closer for the 2024 season. In 2024, he held a 3.68 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 22.1 percent strikeout rate, and 8.9 percent walk rate with 38 saves through 65 appearances.
Of course, he wasn't left on the market unsigned this long for no reason. Outside of mediocre run-prevention marks, the advanced stats show glaring red flags, with a 4.34 xERA, 48.1 percent hard-hit rate, and 22.1 percent strikeout rate in 2024. However, an above-average 46.5 percent ground-ball rate and 104 Stuff+ grade are positive data points to consider for the 33-year-old.
Despite that, Finnegan is still a fantastic cheap target for saves. The only threats to his closing role in Washington are Jorge Lopez (3.94 FIP, 23 percent strikeout rate) and Jose A. Ferrer (who has logged one save in his two seasons with Washington). Perhaps they sneak in, but remember that Hunter Harvey was a far bigger threat to Finnegan at this time last year and the closer did enough. The 33-year-old's extensive experience as a closer should allow him to slot right back into the Washington closing role.
RotoBaller recommends an auction value of $4 for Kyle Finnegan. If you're low on saves and nearing the end of your draft, you can't afford to be a snob. Saves aren't cheap; take Finnegan at his $3 AAV.
Bowden Francis, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
$3 AAV (Average Auction Value)
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Bowden Francis was one of the most unexpected late-season breakouts in 2024. He joined the Blue Jays rotation from the bullpen after the trade deadline and never looked back, putting up a 1.53 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 26.5 percent strikeout rate, 3.3 percent walk rate, and 0.53 WHIP through nine starts.
While a 3.75 xFIP and 95.6 percent left-on-base rate make it hard to believe he'll replicate that 0.53 WHIP in 2025, Francis showed serious potential in 2024. His command ranked among the league's best, with a 5.4 percent walk rate and 102 Location+ grade on the season.
And while the 28-year-old doesn't possess the electric stuff that one may look to when evaluating pitchers, his fastball performed incredibly well in 2024. The pitch held a 75.6 percent strike rate, a .174 batting average against, and a 102 Stuff+ grade on 51.3 percent usage.
CUTTER's projection of a 3.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts across 180 innings is remarkable for a pitcher who will be drafted as late-round pitching depth. RotoBaller recommends $4 for the starting pitcher. Considering the dominance of his late-season run, his current $3 AAV is cheap enough to take a gamble.
Bowden Francis, 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/0gqePGp9Y5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2024
Walker Buehler, SP, Boston Red Sox
$2 AAV (Average Auction Value)
Two-time All-Star Walker Buehler didn't give us the season we were expecting upon his return from Tommy John surgery, as he held a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, 1.55 WHIP, 18.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.1 percent walk rate through 16 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It was an unequivocally awful regular season, but the 30-year-old showed flashes of his former glory in a World Series-winning run for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Through 15 postseason innings (three starts, four appearances), he held a 3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 20.6 percent strikeout rate.
With the Dodgers rotation stuffed to the brim with talent, he was not re-signed by the team. The Boston Red Sox took Buehler on a one-year deal, and he'll have a good shot at maintaining a rotation spot. Outside of a change of scenery, Andrew Bailey and Co. should help Buehler rebuild his arsenal on a contending team.
The right-handed pitcher's four-seamer (his primary pitch with 29 percent usage) struggled in 2024 (.445 xwOBA, 32 percent HR/FB, 7 percent SwStr%), but his secondary pitches may bring him back from the fantasy abyss. The Red Sox famously moved pitchers away from fastballs last year. His cutter (21 percent usage) was Buehler's best pitch, with a 52.1 percent groundball rate and .255 xwOBA; his curveball (19 percent usage) was knocked around, but held a decent 10.9 percent SwStr% and 30.5 percent CSW%; and his sinker (16 percent usage) generated a fantastic 64.6 percent ground-ball rate with a .289 xwOBA.
RotoBaller recommends $3 for the starting pitcher. While he isn't a sure thing in 2025, Buehler is a fantastic high-ceiling rotation piece at a cheap $2 AAV.
Walker F'n Buehler's 4Ks in 2 innings. pic.twitter.com/olQqEyABdI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2025
DJ Herz, SP, Washington Nationals
$2 AAV (Average Auction Value)
DJ Herz impressed many in his rookie year, as the unranked prospect held a 4.16 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 27.7 percent strikeout rate, and 9.4 percent walk rate through 19 starts. The advanced marks looked even better for Herz, with a 3.26 xERA, .208 xBAA, and 34.4 percent hard-hit rate on the season.
Herz's primary appeal is his tantalizing stuff, with a 14.3 percent SwStr%, 29.8 percent CSW%, and 29.3 percent whiff rate overall. The superstar in his arsenal is his four-seamer (54 percent usage), which possessed a jaw-dropping 15 percent SwStr%, 32.1 percent CSW%, and .280 xwOBA.
His secondaries were less impressive, with a changeup (25 percent usage) and slider (18 percent usage) each possessing a relatively mediocre 13.4 percent SwStr%. He'll likely need his secondaries to pop before he retains long-term fantasy relevance, but his current arsenal is one of the best on that Washington roster. With options left available, Herz may not have an Opening Day rotation slot but the talent should soon win out.
The primary worry for Herz is his poor control. His 9.4 percent walk rate may not kill you in fantasy, but it (along with a 92 Location+ grade) indicates command that makes it difficult to trust him as a pitcher. Outside of one start against the Mets in September (seven earned runs allowed over three and one-third innings), the 24-year-old largely averted blow-outs.
Herz has the profile of a talented pitcher who could be punished if he misses against a potent major-league offense. That kind of pitcher is usually tough to stomach in fantasy (especially when they are on a non-contender like Washington), but Herz's cheap $2 AAV and role as a depth piece in fantasy rotations means you should be less concerned about the risks associated with his command issues.
DJ Herz, 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/MTAGNoIVQP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 13, 2024
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