Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts To Improve Further In 2025

We could argue for hours on the individual definitions of a breakout. However, we're looking at players who drastically outperformed expectations, specifically starting pitchers. Typically, when players break out, there's a mixture of luck and skill in their favor, but we hope the skills look good. The ADP market becomes sharper with more information, meaning it's typically a solid data point.

In other words, breakout players with legitimate skills might be priced up, similar to higher-end brand-name products. On the flip side, pitchers like Ronel Blanco, whose breakout legitimacy the market questions, are drafted past pick 200. Based on the price, a starting pitcher breakout we hope to continue improving would be one we're paying up for within the top 100 picks.

Like most of my columns, we'll examine the skills, underlying metrics, and other relevant factors to identify whether the data points toward sustainability in these breakout pitchers from 2024. Can these starting pitchers sustain their success and continue to improve into 2025? Should we pay up for these breakouts from last season? We'll answer those questions and more.

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Garrett Crochet, SP, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP: 28.6 (Since Feb. 15)

The biggest breakout of the 2024 season should be Crochet after he pitched as a reliever across 72 innings before 2024, then made 32 starts. Though we don't typically look at games started, it's worth noting Crochet averaged over 5.6 innings per start from the beginning of the season to June 30. The volume impacted his fantasy value, as seen below.

However, from July 1 onwards, Crochet averaged just over three innings per start, peaking at four several times. The White Sox messed with Crochet's workload, which could have benefitted him from a health standpoint, though fantasy managers would disagree after the per-inning production in the first half.

Crochet's skills support his breakout season, with an elite 29 percent strikeout minus walk rate and a 16.8 percent swinging strike rate. Among pitchers with 140 innings, Crochet ranked first in strikeout minus walk rate and first in swinging-strike rate.

Crochet's strikeout minus walk rate was over three percentage points higher than Chris Sale, who ranked second. Meanwhile, Crochet's swinging strike finished over one point higher than Logan Gilbert in second.

Crochet had three pitches with a swinging strike rate of 15 percent or higher, not including the sinker (16 percent), which he threw 50 times. The slider (20.9 percent), cutter (17.5 percent), and four-seam (15.2 percent) led Crochet's arsenal.

For context, Crochet's four-seamer was over four points above the league average, with the slider and cutter around four to five percentage points higher. Though Crochet's four-seamer doesn't have high-end levels of induced vertical break, he uses his elite extension to help the four-seamer perform well.

With the new arm angle metrics via Statcast, we see Crochet's arm angle changed, mainly via a slightly lower vertical release point (one inch). However, what's more notable is the 10-inch change in his horizontal release point, meaning he released the ball over 10 inches farther away from the midline of his body.

Theoretically, Crochet's horizontal release point change led to more horizontal movement. That's evident in the four-seamer adding over two inches of arm side run in 2024 compared to 2023.

Crochet traded his slider for a cutter while maintaining the sweeper usage. The cutter was a weapon against lefties, allowing a .242 wOBA, though the xwOBA (.325) suggests regression.

Crochet's sweeper elicited the most whiffs against lefties, and the expected results (.143 xwOBA) hinted at better outcomes (.318 wOBA). That should give Crochet two offerings versus same-handed hitters.

Meanwhile, Crochet uses the four-seamer (54.6 percent) and cutter (28.9 percent) against right-handed hitters, with the heater allowing the best results (.243 wOBA) besides the changeup (.215), though he used it 7.1 percent of the time. That shows us Crochet possesses an attack plan against both sides of the plate, leading to high-end outcomes based on elite skills and approach.

Will This Breakout Pitcher Continue to Improve?

Sometimes when a player breaks out, we have a mixture of luck and skills, but Crochet displayed near-elite to elite skills. That's evident by the 2.69 xERA being nearly one run below his outcomes. Sure, the draft market might be pushing up Crochet as a second or third-round pick, given his 28 ADP.

Crochet might lack the track record for innings among the top starting pitchers, but the skills point toward a potential step forward in 2025. Trust in the Red Sox pitching coach staff to help Crochet develop and grow to another level, likely increasing the cutter or sweeper usage.

Shota Imanaga, SP, Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP: 75 (Since Feb. 15)

Imanaga burst onto the scene as a rookie with a 2.91 ERA, yet owned a 3.75 xERA, typically hinting at regression for him. He performed better in the second half (2.75 ERA, 3.49 xERA) compared to the first (3.07 ERA, 4.02 xERA) via consistent skills and some luck.

Like Crochet, Imanaga's skills have been high-end to elite. That's evident by his 21 percent strikeout minus walk rate via an above-average ball rate (31.5 percent). Imanaga boasted a near-elite swinging strike rate of 15 percent with the splitter (26.2 percent), slider (16.6 percent), and changeup (17 percent).

For context, the league average swinging strike rate for splitters is 17.9 percent, an eight-point gap. Furthermore, Imanaga's slider and changeup were about one point higher than the league norms. That gives him two to three non-fastballs to attack both sides of the plate, with his four-seamer possessing elite levels of induced vertical break at 18.3 inches.

Imanaga's changeup (.199 wOBA) and splitter (.222 wOBA) have been his two best pitches against right-handed hitters. The four-seamer is his next best pitch, allowing a .326 wOBA.

Imanaga dominates left-handed hitters, evidenced by the sweeper (.236 wOBA) and splitter (.194 wOBA) eliciting weak contact while generating whiffs. His four-seamer performs decently against lefties, too, with a .297 wOBA allowed.

Will This Breakout Pitcher Continue to Improve?

While we should expect regression in the ERA, Imanaga's skills have been near-elite in multiple categories via swinging strike rate, ball rate, and movement profiles. There's a path for him to repeat his success, with some regression built-in, leading to a top-12 starting pitcher, as a top-20 in ADP. Imanaga has the qualities to take another step forward.

Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 88 (Since Feb. 15)

Move over, AJ Smith-Shawver, Schwellenbach is taking over with the longest last name among the Braves' starting pitchers. Jokes aside, Schwellenbach has become one of their best pitchers. Schwellenbach had the second-highest strikeout minus walk rate (20.8 percent) on the Braves behind Sale (26.5 percent) among pitchers with 100 innings.

Schwellenbach boasted an above-average swinging strike of just under 14 percent (13.9). Among rookie pitchers with 100 innings, Schwellenbach ranked third in swinging strike rate behind Imanaga and Jared Jones, ahead of Paul Skenes.

Schwellenbach mixes in five to six pitches, with the slider (15.2 percent), curveball (18.2 percent), and splitter (24.8 percent) leading the arsenal from a swinging strike perspective. The slider is slightly below the league average (16.4 percent), but the curveball was nearly five points higher, with the splitter over six percentage points above the norm.

Schwellenbach's splitter had the best outcomes (.195 wOBA), with the next best being the sinker (.216 wOBA), though he uses the fastball at the lowest rate (6.8 percent). His four-seamer (.369 wOBA), curveball (.342 wOBA), and cutter (.410 wOBA) weren't helpful offerings against left-handed hitters.

Keep tabs on Schwellenbach's approach against lefties since the expected results hinted at regression in his favor. He has a better approach versus right-handed hitters, with four pitches allowing a wOBA under .290, including the slider (.233 wOBA), four-seamer (.243 wOBA), cutter (.288 wOBA), and curveball (.267 wOBA).

One possible fix for Schwellenbach to take a step forward involves throwing the breaking pitches in the zone at a lower rate. That's especially true with the slider's zone rate at 49.6 percent compared to the league average of 45.1 percent. We have a similar gap, with Schwellenbach's curveball zone rate (48.4 percent) compared to the league average (43.1 percent).

We mention that because Schwellenbach's slider possesses above-average levels of vertical drop, it could lead to more whiffs and weak contact in 2025 if he throws it lower in the zone or outside. Schwellenbach's curveball has been sneaky good, too, especially because it generates a nearly identical swinging strike rate to the called strike rate (18.5 percent).

Will This Breakout Pitcher Continue to Improve?

The skills point toward a high-end starting pitcher. That's evident via Schwellenbach's near-elite control (30.7 percent ball rate) and above-average swinging strike rate, giving him a repeatable floor and upside scenario. The challenges against left-handed hitters appear adjustable, and we're partly nitpicking on it being an issue. No one is sleeping on Schwellenbach, and we should see him build upon his rookie year.

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