6 Late-Round Draft Fliers - Fantasy Baseball Value Picks With Upside

We are only a week or so into spring training but I’ve already bit the bullet on fantasy baseball drafts in 2025. I’m a few weeks (months, even) behind some of the industry sharps, but as someone who typically waits until the last week or so before the regular season opening, it feels good to dip my toes in the water this early.

Drafting this early is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, there are good values to be found up and down the board before the majority of fantasy baseball players have caught on to changes to rosters and depth charts. On the other hand, trades, free agent signings, and injuries that occur in the preseason can throw a wrench into a fantasy team’s construction.

This can be especially hurtful when it involves early or mid-round picks (hello, Lucas Erceg). In the last rounds, the consequence of a bust is not as dire. As a draft winds down, I like to find the late-round fliers, hoping to hit paydirt at a low cost. In this article, I will share with you some of the later-round dart throws that I am making in fantasy baseball drafts this year. When you are done reading, be sure to visit RotoBaller’s MLB hub and rankings to continue preparing for your own drafts, and then download our mobile app to get the latest news and articles straight to your device of choice.

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Hitters: Later-Round Draft Fliers

Tyler Fitzgerald, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 242.19

Tyler Fitzgerald hit just 11 home runs in his three seasons at Louisville before being drafted by the Giants in 2019. In his first season as a pro, the then-21-year-old shortstop hit just one home run in 214 plate appearances. The COVID pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league system, but in the time off, Fitzgerald was able to develop a productive power stroke.

In 2021, he hit 19 homers and had at least 20 in each year since. In 2024, Fitzgerald enjoyed a mini-breakout after taking over the everyday shortstop role just before the All-Star break. He ended the season with 15 home runs (after hitting eight in Triple-A) and 17 stolen bases with a .280 batting average in 96 games played.

Fitzgerald made a great impression last year, but it should be noted that he wildly outperformed his expected stats. As a flyball hitter with a pull rate of nearly 50 percent, Fitzgerald’s swing is tuned for power, but his approach results in a lot of whiffs. Amidst last season’s mini-breakout, his contact rate lagged well behind the league average.

Even with his flaws, it is hard to ignore what Fitzgerald brings to the table. Last year’s 100th-percentile sprint speed isn’t going away. He is currently listed as a shortstop but likely qualifies at outfield based on his experience last year and will gain eligibility at second base very soon.

The Giants have few options to replace him defensively so he will get plenty of chances to produce. If he doesn’t, he is an easy cut, but if he can replicate last year’s success across a full season, then fantasy managers who take the chance on Fitzgerald will be heavily rewarded.

Top 25 Rookie Seasons in 2024 for #FantasyBaseball.

13. Tyler Fitzgerald (SS-SFG)

Season: 341 PA, .280/.334/.497, 53 R, 15 HR, 34 RBI, 17 SB

Slowed after a torrid start but still had a near 30/35 pace with elite sprint speed & Sweet-Spot rate.#2024RookieRanks pic.twitter.com/6yxdlnFeUN

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) October 4, 2024

Christopher Morel, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 252.84

As he enters his fourth year in MLB, Christopher Morel is known to fantasy managers for being one of the streakiest players in the game. Catch him in the right week, and you could add three or more home runs to your totals. Catch him on the wrong week and watch your counting categories stagnate and your team's batting average plummet.

In 2024, Morel managed his first full season since reaching the bigs, playing in 152 games. Morel had his second straight 20 HR season, swatting 21 total playing for the Cubs and Rays. In 2025, he returns with Tampa as they take up temporary residence in a minor league park that many are saying will be a boon to Rays batters’ production.

George M. Steinbrenner Field’s dimensions (based on Yankee Stadium) combined with its outdoor setting in the Florida heat and humidity have fueled the idea that the park will play like a bandbox. If there is truth to the idea, then I want it on the ground floor rather than have to chase production on the waiver wire.

The Rays’ home schedule is front-loaded to avoid the heat and thunderstorms of late summer. Nineteen of their first 22 games alone are at home. I’ll be ready to draft Morel at his price if I need power in the hopes he can put up numbers early in the season, knowing that if he can’t take advantage of his environment in the first weeks, I will cut bait.

Michael Conforto, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 267.24

I highlighted Michael Conforto as one of my sleeper picks in a recent column for RotoBaller. I am compelled to bring him up again because he is still being ignored on draft day in 12-teamers, according to his ADP.

The Dodgers signed Conforto to a one-year, $17 million deal back in early December. That’s a lot of money to spend on a platoon bat. For that kind of money, I’m betting that Los Angeles will want to get as much out of Conforto as they can and he sees his first 500-plus plate appearance season since 2019.

Conforto will benefit from two major upgrades in 2025: his lineup and his home ballpark. Depending on how closely he follows the Dodgers’ top four, his RBI total should see a nice boost. I’m optimistic about his home run production, too. Of Conforto’s 20 round-trippers hit in 2024, 17 were hit on the road. Escaping one of MLB’s worst ballparks for left-handed power and landing in one of the best should result in a sizable gain.

With such a stacked lineup already in Los Angeles, it is possible that Conforto is relegated to the back third of the lineup and he misses out on a season like Teoscar Hernandez had last year. It is a worthwhile chance to take, given the possibilities and the fact that Conforto still costs next to nothing in drafts this winter.

Michael Conforto told me that it's a "hitter's dream" to bat in this Dodgers lineup:

"I'm excited to hit here in Dodger Stadium. it's a great place to hit. If we iron out some of the consistency issues, I could be a high OPS guy, I'm gonna get on base & drive in a lot of runs." pic.twitter.com/vSx87KKsAK

— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) February 4, 2025

Pitchers: Later-Round Draft Fliers

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 256.05

The deeper into a draft one gets, the harder it is to find starting pitching that won’t threaten a team’s ratios, let alone actively bolster those categories. Tampa’s Drew Rasmussen fits the bill. His last two seasons were disrupted due to an internal brace procedure in 2023, but in the 73.1 IP he threw, he managed a 2.70 ERA with a 2.07 FIP and a WHIP of 1.06. Since 2021, Rasmussen has the fifth-lowest ERA and fourteenth-lowest WHIP in MLB (min. 250 IP).

Rasmussen’s four-seamer and sinker both ride in the mid-90s, and they, along with his cutter, resulted in groundball rates of at least 50 percent last season. The 29-year-old seldom used his sweeper in 2024 but it flummoxed opposing batters to the tune of a 28 percent SwStr% on the rare occasion he turned to the pitch.

Rasmussen carries significant injury risk. In addition to his 2023 elbow procedure, he underwent Tommy John surgery twice during his college days, in 2016 and 2017. This spring, Rasmussen is being built up as a starter but his role in the rotation is not guaranteed due to the concern about his elbow. He was effective as a reliever in 2024 and may end up in the bullpen again in 2025. Given his cost, I’ll be happy to start Rasmussen; however, the Rays chose to deploy him for as long as he can stay healthy.

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 264.43

Is it just me, or was there more hype surrounding Jackson Jobe at this time last year than there is now? In 2024, he was billed as the next best thing to Paul Skenes and a potential midseason callup. A hamstring injury in May cost him two months of his season and derailed any hopes of bringing him up during the summer. While healthy, Jobe was a solid starter across three levels in the minors. In 91.2 IP over 21 games started, Jobe compiled 96 strikeouts, a 2.36 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP.

Jobe has a fastball with 17 inches of induced vertical break that rides in the high 90s and can hit triple-digits. He complements the heat with a sweeping slider that breaks upwards of 18 inches, a low-90s cutter, and a newly developed changeup that generates a ton of swing-and-miss. Adding to that, Jobe has developed a new curveball to work off of his slider with the hope that the added vertical movement will induce more whiffs.

Jackson Jobe, 100mph Fastball...and 3,187 RPM Sweeper (19 inches of horizontal break). pic.twitter.com/OpsgPCq6NA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 11, 2024

The composition of Detroit’s rotation is very much up in the air and Jobe has a decent shot at being a part of it come opening day. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Keider Montero, and Kenta Maeda are all vying to fill out the back end of the Tigers’ rotation. Those four ranged from underwhelming to abysmal in their turns in 2024. Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Jobe making the team, knowing that if he misses the cut, all it will have cost is one of my final picks.

A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 289.04

One of my longest-standing traditions as a fantasy baseball player is to spend my last draft pick on a relief pitcher who is in line for high volume out of the gate. Such a pitcher can easily be rotated into an active slot on starters’ off days and pick up a win or a few strikeouts here or there. Their contributions may not be consistent, but they will add up over time and can easily be replaced if things go sideways.

All the better if the reliever has a shot at their team’s closer job. A.J. Puk is in such a position entering 2025. In 2024, Puk started the season in the Marlins’ starting rotation but performed so poorly in his first four starts that he was relegated to the bullpen. A midseason trade to the Diamondbacks rejuvenated the southpaw. Operating mainly in a setup role, Puk’s 27.1 IP for Arizona resulted in 43 strikeouts, a 1.32 ERA (backed by a 1.63 FIP), and a 0.77 WHIP.

Puk also snagged two saves and is set to share ninth-inning duties with Justin Martinez. In 2024, Martinez, at times, looked dominant but suffered a massive fall-off in the second half. In 12.0 IP he threw in the last month of the season, he allowed 22 baserunners and was charged with six earned runs. If Martinez’s instability carries over into 2025, Puk could win the job outright and provide a massive return compared to his cost.

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