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Dan's free MLB betting picks - MLB player prop picks for the 2025 season. His top MLB player over/under prop bets for strikeouts, home runs, and stolen bases.
Even though the MLB season is still a full month away, the time to get those futures bets in is now, while you can still lock in the best odds on your favorite teams and players!
Earlier this week, I released my favorite team win total bets here, but now it's time to look at some season-long player props that we can target. While there are some worthy players to target for under (mainly injury-prone players), I'll highlight some overs today for players I'm very high on this season. I have some strikeout props for pitchers as well as some home run and stolen base props for hitters.
In this article, I'll make a case for some of my favorite player prop bets for the coming season. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks. If you love a certain pick (or hate it), feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Strikeout Props - Betting Picks
Logan Gilbert over 185.5 strikeouts (-105)
If you don't already know, we love to use Ariel Cohen's ATC projections here at RotoBaller for a lot of our preseason content. Ariel, like many folks, is pretty high on Gilbert this season and has him projected for 200 strikeouts over 194 innings.
That seems conservative, considering that Gilbert has made at least 32 starts in three straight seasons, striking out 189 and 220 in the last two years while ascending to the top tier of pitchers in the league.
Gilbert raised his K% to 27.4% last season and backed that up with an incredibly strong 15.9% SwStr%, which suggests he still could improve to the 30% K% range.
He's been a horse, eating innings, and as he continues to improve his arsenal of pitches, he'll only continue to improve as a strikeout pitcher. He'll be a lock for 200+ every season that he stays healthy. We are getting a very good number here at just 185.5.
Cole Ragans over 191.5 strikeouts (-113)
One of my favorite pitchers to watch last season was Ragans, who came out of nowhere in 2023 as a converted reliever when he was traded from Texas to KC. Ragans has fantastic stuff as he mixes in a cutter and three different offspeed pitches with his high-90s fastball to keep hitters off balance.
In his first full season as a starter, he blew away hitters and finished with 223 strikeouts - the second most in the American League behind Tarik Skubal.
Cole Ragans in 2024:
11-9 REC
186.1 IP
3.14 ERA
223 SO (2nd in AL)
4th in AL Cy Young voting3-year, $13.25M extension with KC. 👑 pic.twitter.com/3W2BZkeE1J
— StatMuse Baseball (@statmusemlb) February 15, 2025
His ATC projection this season is 213, which is a number that already bakes in the volatility of the player. While some were skeptical that Ragans could repeat his 2023 success throughout a full season in 2024, he ended up putting up even better numbers with a higher K%, lower BB%, lower ERA, and lower WHIP.
Ragans just signed a contract extension and will be the Royals ace for at least the next three years. He's a stud who has proven he can strike out hitters with the best of them.
MLB Home Run Props - Betting Picks
Yordan Alvarez over 33.5 HR (-120)
Alvarez has gone over this number in two of his last three seasons, with the only miss being his 31-homer campaign in 2023, when he played only 114 games due to some nagging injuries. He's one of the most feared left-handed power hitters in baseball and still only 27 years old - right in the middle of his prime.
Per Statcast, Alvarez finished last season with the seventh-best Brls/PA% at 10.9%. That simply means that every time he stepped to the plate, he had an 11% chance of barreling up the baseball, and we know that barrels turn into home runs more often than not.
He's increased his launch angle in a big way the last two seasons (up to 17.1% and 18.3% from 12% in 2022) and it's resulted in a major increase in his FB% as a result.
Despite being an extreme fly-ball hitter (47% last season) he also experienced his lowest HR/FB% of his career at 16%. If he had been around 22% instead (his career average), he would have probably had another three to five home runs.
I think he's a 40-HR guy if he stays healthy all season, and while most of the projections have him barely beating his number here, I like him to coast over it relatively easily.
Jake Burger over 24.5 HR (-125)
Burger is set to be the everyday first baseman for the Rangers this season after coming over to Texas in a trade with Miami. Burger's power outburst started two seasons ago in Chicago and continued in Miami after he was dealt there midway through the 2023 season.
His raw power has always been there, but he's made major improvements in his contact rates, cutting down on his strikeouts and putting the ball in play more often. He smashed 34 dingers in 2023 and 29 in 2024, so the fact we are getting his number so low at 24.5 baffles me a bit.
Perhaps the books think he could end up in a platoon or that his success isn't sustainable, but every single projection system (see picture above) has him crushing that 24.5 number this season and going well over 500 at-bats. This one feels easy; Burger is a legit 30-HR power bat who simply is getting no respect with his HR prop set at only 24.5.
MLB Stolen Base Props - Betting Picks
Jazz Chisholm over 33.5 SB (-112)
Going back to the ATC projections once again here as Ariel has Jazz swiping 38 bases in his first full season as a Yankee.
There's no question that he was a much better player last season after the trade from Miami to New York as he was not only much more productive at the plate, he was more productive on the bases, swiping 18 bases in pinstripes and finishing with 4o for the season.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. as a Yankee:
176 AB
11 HR
23 RBI
.273 AVG
.825 OPS
132 wRC+Solid. pic.twitter.com/teJYaMde9j
— StatMuse Baseball (@statmusemlb) December 14, 2024
It's really simple here - I am targeting a much happier and motivated Jazz this season. It was obvious that he hated being in Miami and loved being a Yankee (I mean, who wouldn't). He has elite speed and last year; he had the green light to run when he wanted.
I think he demolishes this number with 40 or more this year. I'm smashing the button on the over here and this is by far one of my favorite plays.
Fernando Tatis Jr. over 20.5 SB (-120)
Tatis has been battling injuries (and a suspension) now for several seasons, but he's been very vocal about how he feels as good as he has in three to four years going into this season. This is one pick where the projections don't back me and I'm going more with my gut here.
Tatis has been a great base-stealer when healthy, and he probably hasn't run as often the last several seasons because of his injuries. I realize we are banking on an injury-prone player to stay healthy here, but the reason we are getting his number so low is because his injury risk is baked into this number.
He's stolen 92 bases in 516 career games in his career. At that rate, he would only need to play 115 games this season to hit 21 steals. If we get anything close to 130 to 140 games from him, I think he will crush this number - as long as he continues to be the aggressive baserunner that he has been in the past.
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