Mid-Round Starting Pitcher (SP) Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets in 2025

Welcome RotoBallers to our article about mid-round starting pitcher draft values and draft targets! We are here to help you crush your fantasy baseball drafts, as fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting draft season. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players who can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.

Today, we're looking at some middle-round starting pitchers for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2025 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2025 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more -- available exclusively in our 2025 Draft Kit.

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Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones flashed high upside at times during his rookie campaign. Across his first 121 2/3 major league frames, the former second-round pick held a 4.14 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He generated an impressive 26.2% K rate and a 30.2% whiff rate, which placed him in the 73rd and 84th percentile among qualified pitchers, respectively.

Much of his strikeout production was credited to his slider, his second-most used pitch, which generated a strong 37.3% whiff rate. His fastball, which he used 49.3% of the time, generated a modest 25.7% whiff rate. Jones relied heavily on those two pitches as his third-most used was his curveball, which was only deployed 9.3% of the time. This pitch was not very effective as it generated a hefty .660 xSLG.

2024 PitchingNinja Sword of the Year. ⚔️🏆

Winner: Jared Jones pic.twitter.com/eSN1iQxS97

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 16, 2024

Jones got out to a strong start, holding a 3.56 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP during the first half of the summer, but saw his ratios climb significantly during the second half to a 5.87 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Jones has yet to surpass 140 innings in a single professional season but was on track to do so in 2024 if he did not miss time in August with a lat strain.

While Jones flashed elite potential during the first half, his inability to hold up during the second half greatly affected his ratios. Fantasy managers willing to take a risk should consider drafting him at his 147.88 ADP on the NFBC but should consider building a strong rotation around him in case his end-of-season struggles arise in 2025.

-- Andy Smith - RotoBaller

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene had the strongest, most complete season of his young career in 2024 after he posted a 9-5 record with a 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts in 150 1/3 innings pitched on the way to earning his first All-Star nomination.

Armed with a four-seamer that went from a seventh-percentile run value in 2023 per Baseball Savant to 98th-percentile in 2024, combined with an impressive 6.9% HR/FB%, especially when calling Great American Ball Park home, it was a recipe for success.

Greene's Achilles heel is the inability to stay healthy, undergoing Tommy John surgery as a prospect, then missing time at the major league level in 2022 (shoulder), 2023 (hip), and 2024 (elbow). While the injury history is a concern, the former first-round draft pick is expected to be ready for Opening Day, and although FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all suggest ERA regression in 2025, it should still be top-of-the-rotation-worthy given the peripheral stats.

If he can make 30 starts, the 6-foot-5 hurler could easily be a No. 1 starter for fantasy, which makes his current NFBC ADP of 98 align with his 94 overall ranking here at RotoBaller.

-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele battled a few injuries during the 2024 campaign, including a hamstring strain in the opening month and elbow tendonitis late in the season. Fortunately, the southpaw was able to log a few starts late in the season, which suggested the elbow injury was not serious.

Overall, across 134 ⅔ innings of work, the Chicago ace held a solid 3.07 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His ratios were almost identical to his 2023 breakout campaign, where he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting. During this season, in a much larger 173 ⅓ inning sample, the left-hander carried a 3.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Why Justin Steele will return to Cy Young form in 2025
🧵🪡 #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Ntse8cIAz4

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 6, 2025

His underlying metrics also remained quite consistent over the past two summers. In 2024, he held an identical 24% K rate and lowered his hard-hit rate by three points and barrel rate by one point. In addition, he boasted a stellar 2.74 xERA last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among qualified pitchers.

Given his stable metrics, fantasy managers should feel confident investing in Steele at his 128.89 ADP. In fact, the 29-year-old could be a nice value pick if he can return to his ace role in 2025, as he could easily outperform his ADP.

-- Andy Smith- RotoBaller

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez will enter the 2025 season as one of the trendiest breakout picks in fantasy, and for good reason. The former top pitching prospect dazzled last season before being shut down in August due to a lat injury.

Across 20 starts, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.86 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP while winning 13 games and racking up 130 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. On the surface, those numbers feel pedestrian, but his underlying metrics were much better, as indicated by his 3.61 SIERA and 3.66 FIP, which suggests his ERA was a bit inflated based on factors beyond his control.

Best of all, the 24-year-old generated an excellent 13.6% swinging-strike rate, suggesting he's more than capable of sustaining his elite strikeout pace. Despite being a young pitcher, there's not much workload concern for Rodriguez, as he tossed over 160 innings in 2023, and GM Mike Elias confirmed Rodriguez will have a full spring training after recovering from last season's injury.

Toss in a good Orioles lineup and his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, and you've got a perfect recipe for a breakout campaign from Rodriguez. He's screaming value as the 44th pitcher off draft boards, according to the NFBC average draft position of 110.72.

-- Mike Schwarzenbach- RotoBaller

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves

Spencer Schwellenbach ended up being a godsend for the Atlanta Braves in 2024. The rookie claimed a rotation spot in late May and never looked back, making 21 starts and winning eight games with a 3.35 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts in 123 innings.

While his strikeout rate was a rather pedestrian 25.4%, his 34.2% chase percentage was in the 96th percentile in all major league baseball. His 4.6% walk rate was in the 95th percentile. Schwellenbach looks like a pitcher who can start 30 games, get decent win totals, help you in the ratio categories, and earn about a strikeout per inning.

His current ADP of 99 means he is going in the middle of the seventh round, making him the 39th pitcher off the board. Schwellenbach could easily outperform his ADP and be a terrific number-two starter on many fantasy rosters this spring. He is currently slated as the number two starter in Atlanta behind Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale.

-- Mike Carter - RotoBaller

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