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Sometimes it's just time to move on from certain fantasy football players -- though they may still have some good years ahead of them, there may be red flags that could impede their production in the future, cause them to lose part of their roles in their offenses, or simply fall off for other reasons.
There are a lot of players that it makes sense to sell, but if the majority of the community wants to sell off a player and isn't interested in holding them, then there isn't much point in listing them as a sell here. Instead, we're better off focusing on players you can get a good deal for.
As such, there will be controversial selections here. That's by design. A player being good doesn't mean that they can't be a sell, but that the future might be murkier than most dynasty fantasy managers expect, and that you should exploit that for your gain. Let's dive in.
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Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
On the surface, Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams might seem like a safe player in his role as the unquestioned workhorse of his offense for years to come. Peeling back some layers can reveal a few red flags that should make you nervous about holding him for now, though.
The first and most recent development that should concern you is the situation with quarterback Matthew Stafford. He's 37 years old and has had an extensive injury history, including a multitude of ailments with his throwing shoulder. He still played at a high level in 2024, but for players with such problems with ailments in their past, the wheels can fall off quickly.
Trade rumors swirling around Stafford don't seem to have much weight to them yet, but it's a possibility. If it does happen, whoever the team gets as a replacement will probably not be nearly as good, and the entire offense could take a major hit.
Kyren Williams is the only running back since 2016 to have over 70 carries and not face a stacked box (8+ defenders) once.
Williams has taken advantage, averaging a league-high 2.4 yards before contact per carry (min. 50 carries).#RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/B5e7R82zTH
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 29, 2023
And a big dip in his efficiency should concern you. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2024 and just 4.1 in 2023. Nearly a 20 percent dip in the rushing average should be worrying. The above graphic gives some insight on that, and the tape backs it up -- in 2023, he constantly faced light boxes, and had many more free rushing yards (i.e. yards before contact).
Teams adjusted to his play, and his fantasy output only remained similar because he had nearly 100 more rushing attempts and a ton of goal-line opportunities. His role is incredible in the offense, but that's something that can be fragile.
His backup, RB Blake Corum, a rookie in 2024, didn't do much in his first season, but neither did Williams in his rookie year. Head coach Sean McVay may want to cut into No. 23's workload to at least reduce wear and tear, as Corum profiles athletically very similarly.
Still thinking about this nasty move Blake Corum put on an all-pro LB.
Ankles? They're mine. Gimme. pic.twitter.com/QTqbct6Jdv
— Sosa Kremenjas (@QBsMVP) December 9, 2024
Corum following the path of Williams would surprise everyone, of course, but it's not hard to see a world in which he takes a more significant portion of the backfield touches in 2025. And that would cut into Williams' value. So, KW is a good sell.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs was fortunate in 2024, at least from a fantasy football perspective. He had a resurgent season with his new team, which is better than the Las Vegas Raiders, and dominated the backfield touches behind better run-blocking. He plodded his way to a 1,671-yard-from-scrimmage season and scored 15 rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown.
But he added another 344 touches to the overall wear and tear on his body and is approaching his age cliff quickly. He just turned 27 years old, and with his career workload and his constantly battling injuries, seeing a fall-off in production in two-ish years seems plausible.
Randomly thinking about this play from Josh Jacobs#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/XfJawqzvDc
— Zack 🧀 (@ShowtymeZack) February 6, 2025
And for every year that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been with this team, except for this one, he's run a committee-style system -- notably, running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon split carries relatively evenly in 2022 and 2023. Green Bay invested significant draft capital (running back-wise) in MarShawn Lloyd in the 2024 NFL Draft.
He suffered from injuries and hardly played, but in his one game in action, he logged seven touches in just 14 percent of snaps. That's significant. It's hard to imagine that Green Bay won't return to its committee system -- Lloyd was seen as a major talent and was raved about by the Packers coaching staff.
#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether MarShawn Lloyd can contribute when he returns:
“Oh yeah. Yeah. I can’t wait to get him back in the fold… The one game that he played, you just saw his explosive potential, his quickness, his receiving ability. Very good player.” pic.twitter.com/FRcjcO6O2r
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 15, 2024
It's better to be a year too early selling a player than it is to be a year too late. This is probably the right time to move off Jacobs, though.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
It's always a hot take to move on from young players like Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but the return you could get for him would be seriously impressive. And the Seahawks fired their offensive coordinator from last year, Ryan Grubb, in part because he wasn't committed enough to the run game and utilizing the running backs.
Pass Rate Over Expectation through Week 5
- Bengals offense really clicking with Tee and Chase healthy
- Joe Flacco Colts were much more pass heavy than Richardson
- Seahawks when pushed will be one of the pass heaviest teams in the NFL pic.twitter.com/nlxGdGe5ri— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) October 8, 2024
Seattle passed the ball too often under Grubb, who would often abandon the run game before it had a chance to get going. You can see this in the above chart. Additionally, fellow wideout DK Metcalf suffered a knee injury early on, and when he returned, his usual explosiveness was gone. He should be back to 100 percent after the offseason.
DK Metcalf was carted off the field with an injury. pic.twitter.com/kvVAfQZsTD
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 20, 2024
Metcalf's stats took a significant dip after his return, and he failed to log a game with more than 70 receiving yards and scored just one touchdown, despite logging three games over 100 receiving yards and three touchdowns in his seven games before the malady.
Also, Seattle's quarterback, Geno Smith, will turn 35 in November. Thus, the confluence of two major coincidences (Metcalf's injury and the abnormally high pass rate) and the surprisingly still solid play of the aging Smith are likely pushing JSN's value too high.
It probably won't be as high after next season.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Trade him straight up for Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins or Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is elite and is one of the best wideouts in the NFL, but the looming deterioration of the situation at quarterback for the Rams is of great concern.
QB Matthew Stafford is now 37, and L.A. doesn't have an answer at the position after he leaves. He was talked about at length above, but suffice it to say that there are other players valued slightly less than he is who have more stable situations in the present and better in the long term.
Also, while it's usually better to ignore injury issues, Nacua's injury-prone nature dates back to his college days and was a huge reason he fell in the NFL Draft. And while he played every game in his rookie season, he missed a significant portion of 2024 due to knee issues.
in games where Puka Nacua doesn’t leave early due to injury…
he’s averaging a WHOPPING 23.7 PPG
NO Second Year Wide Receiver has EVER posted that high
and yet he’s STILL NOT valued as a Top 5 Wide Receiver… pic.twitter.com/hn6x2Jqi3w
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) December 9, 2024
The hype around him is justified. He's an incredible player. The next few years could be a bit bumpy, though, and you can get an absolute haul for him in a potential trade right now. Stafford is also probably not credited enough with how great he's played recently.
im all for trading for Matthew Stafford, as long as we keep our #1 pick.. let’s not forget how that man was cookin in his last playoff game 🔥#Titanspic.twitter.com/GO87jWfc0s
— c 🪐 (@InIt4TheKicks) February 13, 2025
Stafford hasn't had the best WR corps of late, with wideout Cooper Kupp having fallen off massively in the past few years. He's essentially only had Nacua consistently winning on his routes and getting open. Yet, Stafford led his team to the playoffs again despite a rash of offensive line injuries.
And his tape still shows a million fantastic throws. Heading for quarterback hell is a good indicator of a dip in fantasy production down the road. Even if his value remains somewhat stable through a change, the production of elite wideouts with better QBs is more interesting.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
It may or may not be the case that wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is the No. 1 option for the New Orleans Saints now. Quarterback Derek Carr certainly seemed to think so in the last few games Shaheed had before he went down with a season-ending injury when he out-targeted Olave significantly.
The former Ohio State Buckeye has had three years with New Orleans now, and while he's put together impressive efficiency numbers and looked great at times, his injury issues have been a serious concern. His QB is also aging, and the team is in serious cap hell and has been for some time now due to constantly kicking the can down the road.
Rashid Shaheed's weekly target shares: 20.8%, 26.6%, 21.7%, 30.5%, 28.1%.
Saints WR1.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 8, 2024
And the target share split was even more stark. Yet, Olave continues to be viewed as the WR1. I would honestly be 100 percent behind trading Olave for Shaheed and some draft picks. The idea that Shaheed will be the WR1 moving forward has been met with plenty of resistance, but both the tape and the stats seemed to have backed that up.
Changing of the guard happens all the time at the WR position. In the case of the Seattle Seahawks, for example, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now widely viewed as the team's WR1, which would've sounded wild a year ago. Yet, JSN didn't have such great first-read target share numbers in the first few weeks of 2023.
Sometimes early round picks in the NFL Draft don't live up to expectations and later-round picks end up developing into stars. This might be happening with the Saints' top-2 receivers, and it's worth capitalizing on.
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