RADIO
Ladies and gentlemen, what an incredible day of college basketball we have laid out before us. Number one vs. Number two Auburn vs. Alabama, Wisconsin at Purdue, Michigan State at Illinois, IPFW vs. Robert Morris, and, of course, the Houston Cougars at Arizona.
I've often dubbed this time of year as "Spot Szn," meaning that at this point in conference play, several outside factors can dictate a matchup other than the play on the court: injuries, travel, varying rest, and the need to secure high-profile wins, to name a few.
However, this year has felt more and more like "Tax Szn" instead. In years past, many of these spots were overlooked, creating valuable betting opportunities. Now, the "spot tax" is often baked into the betting market so much that there's value on the other side once again. That's where we'll start with my favorite angle of the day: Houston vs. Arizona. Let's dive in.
Houston Cougars (-1.5) at Arizona Wildcats
2:00 pm est. McKale Memorial Center, AZ
Houston leads Arizona by one game in the Big 12 standings, obviously making this a momentous matchup. With a win, the Cougars take a two-game lead and stranglehold over the Big 12, while a win for the Wildcats would propel them to be conference leaders in their first season since leaving the Pac-12. A massive home game off of a loss where Tommy Lloyd's Wildcats shot 2-22 from deep with the Big 12 Regular Season Conference Title on the line is certainly enough for the market to bake in a spot tax for the home team.
But, this is one of the situations I believe the tax has gone too far. KenPom makes this game Houston -3, Haslametrics Houston -5, and BartTorvik Houston -3.5. Lead guard Emanuel Sharp and senior Forward Ja'Vier Francis both suited up Monday and should be another step healthier for this one. Motivation goes both ways, and I do believe there's value in backing Kelvin Sampson's Cougars here.
Glad to have you back, @emanuelsharp_ #ForTheCity x #GoCoogs pic.twitter.com/yIISaOgzYZ
— Houston Men's Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) February 11, 2025
Matchup Angle
Now that we know you don't have to pay the usual tax on Houston, we can dive into this matchup and the real reason I'm backing the road team. Houston plays at one of the slowest paces nationally but ranks fourth and second in Adjusted Offense and Defense, respectively. Arizona is no slouch in the efficiency market, but they do tend to play at a much faster pace and prefer an up-and-down transition-type game as opposed to a half-court grind.
The thing about Houston is, well, they slow the ball down any chance they get. Every possession is a 30-second war, making the opponent work their tail off for the full 40 minutes. Four of Arizona's losses have come against teams outside of BartTorvik's top-250 in pace. Another note that often goes overlooked is how much easier it is for teams to slow the pace as opposed to those trying to force transition. Houston practices their offensive sets and half-court defense relentlessly and, therefore, is experienced and efficient in those scenarios. Up-tempo teams, on the other hand, may struggle to find consistent looks in those same half-court sets.
Within those half-court sets, the real kicker is your ability to force turnovers and/or generate offensive rebounds. For basketball teams to be great, they have to be able to get easy looks off steals or extra possessions on the glass. As you can see below, the Cougars are excellent in both categories, while the Wildcats have only been slightly above average.
Incredible efficiency is nothing new to Kelvin Sampson, although there is one difference I like in this year's squad. While their on-ball defense might be slightly worse, they can shoot at all three guard spots. Sharp and L.J. Cryer are over 40% from deep, with Milos Uzan at 39% and both bench players near that same mark. Even on a night when shots aren't falling, the ability to clean up offensive rebounds can keep the game close.
I don't want to sound all negative towards Arizona; they are a good team. While they did happen at home (where this game is also being played), conference wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech within the last few weeks are enough to prove that the Wildcats have the talent to compete with just about anyone. Led by Caleb Love, they have been somewhat erratic this season. With Love’s ability to shoot them in, or out, of any matchup this also makes sense.
Ultimately, I don't care much about this spot. Both teams are motivated to win (duh), and the home arena in Tucson will be raucous. I believe Houston's ability to create second chances and turnovers will be the difference. The cherry on top is their ability to control the tempo and force Arizona's inconsistent guards into difficult situations.
I laid -115 on the Houston moneyline and would play Houston up to -2. As always, for all of my picks, follow me on X @Roddy_PhD, and best of luck if you tail!
