RADIO
Championship Sunday was kind to us two weeks ago. We cashed tickets on the Chiefs and Eagles and won .5 units in the process.
Super Bowl LIX is this weekend, and the NFL season is almost officially over. I’ve enjoyed writing this weekly column for RotoBaller and am thankful for the opportunity. Hopefully, you’ve learned a few things and, more importantly, won some cash along the way. We will look to finish the season on a positive note with another winning week. So, let’s get to our final plays for the 2024-25 NFL season.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
We have a rematch from Super Bowl LVII in this one. The Chiefs prevailed in that game, 38-35, and we could see a similar result Sunday.
Philadelphia has one of the better starting 22 in the NFL and is arguably the better overall team. The Eagles rank higher than the Chiefs in total and defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
However, Kansas City has the ultimate X factor in Patrick Mahomes.
MAHOMES THROWS THE TD TO KELCE WHILE FALLING TO THE GROUND 😳
UNREAL 🍿#HOUvsKC | ESPN, ABC, ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/aEBBmgiKhB
— ESPN (@espn) January 18, 2025
Jalen Hurts is a good quarterback, but he’s not on the same level as Mahomes. Kansas City should also have the coaching advantage in this game. Nick Sirianni has been very successful during his tenure as Philadelphia’s head coach, but Andy Reid is one of the greatest to ever do it. The Chiefs also have one of the best coordinators in the league. Steve Spagnuolo has worked wonders for Kansas City’s defense and has been a key contributor to its dynasty.
The Eagles also boast a strong defensive coordinator. Vic Fangio was hired by Philadelphia last year to improve its defense. It proved to be a smart move as Philadelphia finished 2024 ranked first in overall defensive DVOA. However, Mahomes has had great success against Fangio’s defenses in the past.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 in games where Vic Fangio is the opposing teams head coach(Broncos 2019-2021) or defensive coordinator(Dolphins 2023).
In those 8 games, Mahomes has 2,005 total yards and 11 TDs and a 62.3 cmp%. The Chiefs have combined to outscore their opponents 215-95… pic.twitter.com/HMKOpM7bMk
— Arrowhead Live (@ArrowheadLive) January 28, 2025
Philadelphia has the better overall roster, but Kansas City has the edge at quarterback and coaching. That should be the difference in this game. Look for Kansas City to finish its quest and become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.
Pick: Chiefs -1 (-105) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.58 Units to Win 1.5 Units
Dallas Goedert O/U 4.5 Receptions
We’re sneaking in a player prop this week. Goedert has been involved sporadically in the Eagles offense throughout the year. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, he only posted an 18 percent target share but did post a solid 25 percent targets per route run (TPRR) to go with a strong 2.37 yards per route run (YPRR).
He’s enjoyed a fine postseason and has posted a 15-188-1 line across three playoff games.
GROWN MAN TOUCHDOWN FROM DALLAS GOEDERT 😤
(via @Eagles)pic.twitter.com/GSfzxgqnhl
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2025
Despite the success, Goedert has failed to catch more than four passes in two out of three games this postseason. Kansas City has been vulnerable against tight ends throughout the year and allows over 68 yards per game to the position.
However, the Chiefs do rank a respectable 11th in DVOA against opposing tight ends. Philadelphia also may opt to have Goedert play in line more as a blocker to help Saquon Barkley and the running game.
Goedert only surpassed this line five times all year. This is a good spot to fade him for plus money.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Receptions (+108) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .3 Units to Win .36Units
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