RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We’ve made it to the Super Bowl, and we have a rematch of two years ago as it’ll be Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) taking on Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3). The Eagles are looking for their redemption after losing Super Bowl LVII, while the Chiefs are looking to make their mark in the NFL history books as they attempt to become the first NFL team in the Super Bowl era to pull off a three-peat. Let's see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $15,000
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 4,350 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 76 rushing attempts, 364 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns
- Projected Pass DVOA: 3.82 percent
I’ll start this slate off with who else but Patrick Mahomes. Despite having a “quiet” year by his standards, Mahomes is once again in the Super Bowl -- the fifth time in seven years as a starter. He always steps up when it matters most, and I don’t expect things to be any different here.
My model projects Mahomes to throw for 236.18 yards and 1.9 touchdowns to just 0.78 interceptions while adding 21.32 rushing yards and 0.03 rushing touchdowns on 5.16 rushing attempts.
Saquon Barkley - RB, $18,000
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 411 rushing attempts, 2,447 rushing yards, 51 targets, 40 receptions, 313 receiving yards, 20 touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: -5.57 percent
We’ll flip the field and look at Saquon Barkley. Barkley has added an explosive and dynamic element to this Eagles offense. Barkley found the end zone 20 times this season, with the average distance of those touchdowns being 32.5 yards. It’s a tough ask to stop Saquon, and while I think Steve Spagnuolo will effectively “sell out” to stop him, I think Saquon will still get his.
My model projects Barkley to run for 121.32 yards while adding 3.53 receptions on 4.13 targets for another 27.12 yards and 1.02 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Travis Kelce
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
A.J. Brown - WR, $9,600
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 115 targets, 76 receptions, 1,199 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: 11.6 percent
I’ll stick to the Eagles' side of things and take a look at A.J. Brown next. Brown had himself a big game the last time these two teams faced off in the Super Bowl, catching six of eight targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. Oddly enough, he posted that same line against the Commanders in the NFC Championship two weeks ago after a slow start to the postseason.
My model projects Brown to catch 6.61 of 8.84 targets for 84.67 yards and 0.44 touchdowns.
Travis Kelce - TE, $9,000
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 145 targets, 106 receptions, 959 receiving yards, four touchdowns
- Opposing DVOA vs. TE: -23.8 percent
I’ll flip the field and take a look at Travis Kelce next. Kelce caught just two of four targets for 19 yards against the Bills in the AFC Championship, but I have no doubts he’ll be the key cog in this Chiefs offense here. The Eagles have been good against the tight-end position this season, but with an extra week to prepare, I have to figure that Andy Reid will put Kelce in a position to succeed.
My model projects Kelce to catch 5.63 of 8.93 targets for 52.68 yards and 0.45 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dallas Goedert - TE, $5,800
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 70 targets, 57 receptions, 684 receiving yards, three touchdowns
- Opposing DVOA vs. TE: -1.8 percent
I’ll stick with the tight-end position as we move onto our value plays, taking a look at Dallas Goedert next. Goedert has been the “driver” in the Eagles passing game throughout the playoffs, catching 15 of 18 targets for 188 yards and a touchdown across those three games.
He also had a pair of rushing attempts for 13 yards against the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game. It’ll be interesting to see how Kellen Moore and Nick Sirianni use Goedert in this one.
My model projects Goedert to catch 4.52 of 6.49 targets for 51.6 yards and 0.25 touchdowns.
Marquise Brown - WR, $5,400
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 22 targets, 12 receptions, 126 receiving yards
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR2: -39.5 percent
I’ll wrap things up for this slate with Hollywood Brown. Brown has played in just four games this season for the Chiefs, but with all hands on deck for the Super Bowl, I imagine he’ll be involved quite a bit in the Kansas City passing offense.
My model projects Brown to catch 4.66 of 6.92 targets for 47.10 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. While the Eagles defense has been great at limiting explosive plays, capping Brown’s projected ceiling, he’s too cheap on DraftKings to fade here.
Other Value Options: Harrison Butker, Jake Elliott, Noah Gray, DeAndre Hopkins
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