March 8, 2025

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (triceps) will enter the 2025 season as one of the trendiest breakout picks in fantasy, and for good reason. The former top pitching prospect dazzled last season before being shut down in August due to a lat injury. Across 20 starts, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.86 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP while winning 13 games and racking up 130 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. On the surface, those numbers feel pedestrian, but his underlying metrics were much better, as indicated by his 3.61 SIERA and 3.66 FIP, which suggests his ERA was a bit inflated based on factors beyond his control. Best of all, the 24-year-old generated an excellent 13.6% swinging-strike rate, suggesting he's more than capable of sustaining his elite strikeout pace. Despite being a young pitcher, there's not much workload concern for Rodriguez, as he tossed over 160 innings in 2023, and GM Mike Elias confirmed Rodriguez will have a full spring training after recovering from last season's injury. Toss in a good Orioles lineup and his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, and you've got a perfect recipe for a breakout campaign from Rodriguez. He's screaming value as the 44th pitcher off draft boards, according to the NFBC average draft position of 110.72. Update 3/7/25: Rodriguez is dealing with triceps soreness and is being evaluated in camp. The 25-year-old could start the season on the injured list and has already been ruled out for Opening Day. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor the situation, but Rodriguez's fantasy value and ADP take a hit with the latest injury news.--Mike Schwarzenbach - RotoBaller