3 months ago

San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. battled through a stress reaction in his right leg for the first half of 2024 before being shut down from late June until September to prevent a fracture. Despite this, Tatis still posted a .279/.354/.468 slash line with 14 home runs and eight steals over 79 games. But he had a modest 35 percent hard-hit rate and a pull rate below 40 percent per FanGraphs going, which is not the top-end talent we're used to seeing. The star logged a 52 percent hard-hit rate and 48 percent pull rate after returning in September, yielding seven homers and a .267 average while succeeding on all three steal attempts in those 22 games. That form would've put him on pace for another high-end year such as 2021's 42-homer year. But the 26-year-old has rarely strung together full health for long, with an 80-game PED suspension coming between 2022 and '23 (he had shoulder and wrist surgeries while out). Fantasy managers are taking a calculated risk in Tatis, who has never amassed more than 635 plate appearances in a year, to finally produce over 150 games. Most projection systems sit between 145 and 155 contests, with ATC at 633 PAs over 146 games as of late January. His ability to contribute in all five major fantasy categories keeps him inside most first-round ADPs and around RotoBaller's top 10.--Nick Mariano - RotoBaller