Tight Ends Touchdowns Risers for Fantasy Football - Progression Candidates

Some statistics are sticky to year-to-year. Some stats, such as targets and yards, are somewhat predictable. Touchdowns, however, can vary greatly. It's how some guys only score two touchdowns on 147 targets while others score 11 touchdowns on 69. However, fantasy managers shouldn't expect those outcomes to repeat themselves. That creates a buying opportunity.

This series has identified regression and progression touchdown candidates at the receiver position. We'll be moving onto the tight end position here, and we'll first start with the tight ends who should score more touchdowns in 2025.

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Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

From a scoring perspective, it’s relatively easy to see how Bowers can improve. The Raiders finished 29th in points scored last season. They were 27th in total yards. Check out where they ranked in some other offensive statistics:

• - 28th in yards per play
• - 28th in passing touchdowns
• - 30th in passing touchdown rate
• - 26th in yards per passing attempt
• - 27th in quarterback rating
• - 28th in points per drive
• - 27th in red zone trips
• - 27th in touchdown per red zone trip

They fired their head coach after the 2024 season. Midway through the 2024 season, they fired their offensive coordinator. They started three quarterbacks, one of which was signed off of another team’s practice squad.

Just some basic consistency will help the Raiders offensively. While they still have significant questions at quarterback, fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if they’re slightly better offensively in 2025 than last year. Even if that only means going from a bottom-5 offense to a bottom-10.

Bowers finished first among tight ends in targets (148), fourth in red zone targets (26), and 14th in end zone targets (five). However, he finished just ninth with five touchdowns. He caught just one of his five end zone targets (20.0%) and 14 of his 26 red zone targets (53.8%).

Percentage of PPR points coming via touchdowns:

34% - Tucker Kraft
33% - Mark Andrews
29% - George Kittle
26% - Isaiah Likely
23% - Cole Kmet
21% - Cade Otton

Lowest rates at TE:

0% - Jake Ferguson, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant
5% - Brock Bowers
7% - Trey McBride…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 1, 2024

His overall catch rate for the year was 75.7%. While a player’s catch rate is expected to drop in the red zone and especially in the end zone, the degree to which Bowers’s dropped is unlikely to be repeated in 2025.

If new head coach Pete Carroll can stabilize the offense, Bowers should see an increase in his 3.3% touchdown rate. Any improvement Las Vegas gets at the quarterback position will help Bowers find the end zone more than five times next season.

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

McBride’s expected touchdown total based on his 2024 utilization was 8.5. He scored two. No one was as unlucky as McBride when finding the end zone in 2024. If we eliminate all of his red zone targets, McBride caught 85.7% of his targets.

If we look at his red zone targets but eliminate the ones in the end zone, McBride caught 80% of his targets between the 1-and-20-yard line inside the red zone. His end zone catch rate, however, was just 11%.

That might leave you thinking he struggles in contested catch situations, right? That might be understandable, but he caught 57% of his contested catches in 2024. There’s virtually no logical reason to explain how McBride only scored two touchdowns.

He finished second in targets (147), first in red zone targets (34), and fourth in end zone targets (nine). Despite a workload that left him tied for the highest expected touchdown total, McBride finished 24th with two receiving touchdowns.

Players with more receptions than Trey McBride:

Ja'Marr Chase
Amon-Ra St. Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Brock Bowers
Malik Nabers
[end of list]

Some players with more receiving touchdowns:

Kristian Wilkerson
Chris Manhertz
Ashton Dulin
Wanya Morris

Can you name all four of their teams? pic.twitter.com/wwrZnv3zm5

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 20, 2024

Seven backup tight ends scored more touchdowns than him. McBride scored more touchdowns in 2023 on just 106 targets when he was Zach Ertz’s backup for half the season than he did this year. His touchdown rate in 2023 was 2.8%. In 2024, somehow, it fell even lower. It was 1.4%.

McBride will score more touchdowns in 2025. That’s without question. The question isn’t whether he will score; it’s how many more he will score. It could be as high as eight.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

If there’s someone who can give McBride a run for his money in the “bad touchdown luck” department, it’s Ferguson. He didn’t find the end zone a single time on 81 targets. His 81 targets were the 12th-most. However, his work near the end zone was pitiful. He had just eight red zone targets and one in the end zone.

In 2023, however, Ferguson had 24 red zone targets and nine in the end zone. He had more end-zone targets in 2023 than red-zone targets in 2024. Something has to give. While his 2023 numbers in these areas were likely inflated, his 2024 numbers went the other way. The most realistic outcome is generally, almost always, somewhere in the middle.

Despite his excellent utilization in 2023, Ferguson had a 4.9% touchdown rate. He was a strong candidate to score more touchdowns this year, but bad luck struck again, which included the injury to Dak Prescott.

From Weeks 1-8, before exiting in Week 9, Prescott was on pace for 24 touchdowns and a 3.8% touchdown rate. From 2020-to-2023, under Mike McCarthy, Prescott averaged 36 touchdowns per 17 games and had a 5.8% touchdown rate. Prescott was already underachieving, so they had to switch to Cooper Rush.

Assuming Ferguson’s utilization near the end zone is somewhere between the two extremes of 2023 and 2024, and Prescott can stay healthy in 2025, he is an easy bet to increase his touchdown rate and total. After all, when you’re at zero across the board, there’s only one way to go.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

In Deshaun Watson’s six starts (he was injured in the seventh), he averaged 170 yards per game and 0.8 touchdowns per game. He was on pace for 2,890 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson made two starts. He threw for 327 total yards and zero touchdowns. Bailey Zappe made one start. He threw for 170 yards and one touchdown. That means for 10 out of 17 games, Njoku received some of the worst quarterback play imaginable.

Those three quarterbacks combined for 33 red zone attempts. They completed 14 of them for five touchdowns. They completed 42.4% of their red zone attempts. Even with seven functional games from Jameis Winston, the Browns still ranked:

• 32nd in points scored
• 28th in yards gained
• 31st in yards per play
• 22nd in passing yards
• 28th in passing touchdowns
• 31st in passing touchdown rate
• 32nd in yards per attempt
• 32nd in quarterback rating
• 31st in red zone trips
• 28th in touchdowns per red zone trip
• 32nd in points per drive

Assuming they slightly increase their efficiency in some of these stats, Njoku will be in a friendlier scoring environment in 2025. Njoku finished sixth in targets (90), 16th in red zone targets (16), and first in end zone targets (10). However, despite the utilization, he finished ninth with five touchdowns.

Njoku caught just four of his end-zone targets. He dropped one wide-open touchdown against the Steelers in the snowstorm. With a better offense, quarterback play, and just a bit better luck, Njoku will score more in 2025.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Hockenson’s expected touchdown total was 2.5. He scored zero. He only played 10 games this past season after a late knee injury in 2023. He only played 50% or more of the snaps in seven of those. He only played 70% of the snaps in two. Hockenson typically plays over 70% in every game.

Assuming he’s healthier in 2025, which is a good bet, he’ll get a lot more playing time and, thus, scoring opportunities. He finished 25th in targets (59), 25th in red zone targets (11), and 20th in end zone targets.

Six tight ends were tied at 18th with three touchdowns, and 16 were tied at 24th with two. Based on his utilization, he “should’ve” finished with two after finishing 25th in targets, 25th in red zone targets, and 20th in end zone targets.

However, from a talent perspective, Hockenson is much more talented than those he would’ve been tied with. It’s not a stretch to think we can expect more efficiency from Hockenson.

The Vikings might have another quarterback under center in 2025, but at this point, fantasy managers need to trust head coach Kevin O’Connell. Hockenson should have a nice bounce-back season next year.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

It’s hard putting Henry on this list in February because New England’s offense is due to many changes. Drake Maye needs more pass-catchers, and fantasy managers should expect the team to be aggressive about adding a few. That creates questions for Henry.

He’s 30 and will turn 31 in December, so he could be one of the players who is either replaced entirely or whose role is scaled back. However, given what we know now, he’s a good bet to score more in 2025 as long as the status quo stays (mostly) intact.

He had 89 targets (seventh-most), 20 red zone targets (tenth), and seven end zone targets (tenth). Despite this, he finished 24th in touchdowns with two. He caught just one of his seven end-zone targets. We’d expect that number to be around 40-50%.

His expected touchdown number was six, four more than what he did score. Maye has an entire season and brought in Mike Vrabel as head coach. Fantasy managers should expect an improvement from Maye and the New England offense. As long as Henry maintains his role, he should reap the rewards in 2025.

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