NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Conference Championship) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests

Only four teams remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy after a wild Divisional Round last week. The Bills and Chiefs took care of business in the AFC, while the Commanders and Eagles won their respective games in the NFC. That sets up two great games in the conference championship round.

The Bills will travel to Kansas City in the AFC Championship to stop the Chiefs from making a third straight Super Bowl. As for the Commanders, they will continue to be the underdogs and try to beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship.

Although there are only two games on the slate this weekend, we will still be ranking these contests for those who remain in a pick'em pool. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level in those winners, and the winner of each game will be in red and italicized. The higher the number, the more confident I am in that winner. 

Conference Championship NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

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Semi-Confident Picks For The Conference Championship Pick'em Pools

2 - Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

The Commanders and Eagles will meet for the third time this season after splitting the regular-season series. Both games between these two teams were close, but Philadelphia dominated in the first game back in Week 11. Washington trailed 26-10 late in the fourth quarter before adding on a touchdown in the final seconds.

In the second meeting, the Commanders had the upper hand and won 36-33. Jayden Daniels threw five passing touchdowns in that contest, and this Eagles defense didn't have an answer for the rookie quarterback. Keep in mind, though, that Jalen Hurts exited that game early in the first quarter. Still, it was impressive to see Daniels carve up this tough Philadelphia secondary in Week 16.

Now, these two teams will meet in the NFC Championship for a chance to play in Super Bowl LIX. Daniels has looked fantastic across the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, throwing for 567 yards and four touchdowns. But this game will come down to if the Commanders can stop Saquon Barkley on the ground.

Barkley rushed for at least 145 yards and two touchdowns in both meetings against the Commanders, and this Washington front seven has allowed over 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Just last week, Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 105 rush yards and two touchdowns while averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

A compilation of every Saquon Barkley Home Run TD this season.

The #Eagles have the best RB in the NFL.

(🎥 @Phillies_Muse)pic.twitter.com/dyNyPsC3IM

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 20, 2025

So, the Commanders will need to stop the run in this game. If they do, they'll have a chance. However, the more experienced team will come out on top in the NFC Championship. Kenny Pickett won't play most of the snaps for Philadelphia this time around, and no defense has been able to stop Barkley in recent weeks. The MVP candidate has rushed for over 100 yards in eight of the past nine games.

This game will be close, but the Eagles have too much talent on both sides of the ball. Their defense will come up big in key moments, and Washington will not be able to stop Barkley on the ground. That's why Philadelphia is a semi-confident pick for the NFC Championship.

NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups For The Conference Championship 

1 - Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs 

The Bills and Chiefs will meet in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. Kansas City won each of the previous three meetings, including a 27-24 victory in the Divisional Round last year. But the last time these two teams faced off was back in the regular season in Week 11, and Buffalo won at home by a score of 30-21.

In that game, Josh Allen put the team on his back and scampered for a 26-yard rushing touchdown on a key fourth down in the final minutes to put the contest out of reach. Buffalo also had a great defensive plan in that Week 11 game against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions, and Travis Kelce was held to just two catches for eight yards.

However, expect both Mahomes and Kelce to have much better games this time around. Both players turn it up in the playoffs and are a large reason why Kansas City has won back-to-back Super Bowls. In last year's playoff win over the Bills, the veteran tight end totaled 75 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

This Sunday will be the fourth time in five seasons that the Chiefs and Bills will meet in the playoffs.

Will the Chiefs make it four straight playoff wins against the Bills, or will Buffalo end the losing streak? pic.twitter.com/bN4s9xVOR9

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 21, 2025

This AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Chiefs is a true toss-up. Kansas City is a slight favorite on Sunday night, but the Bills have what it takes to go on the road and stop the potential three-peat.

Although the Chiefs have won each of the last three playoff meetings against the Bills, Buffalo does get it done this time to advance to its first Super Bowl in 30 years. Allen has been on another level this season, and he'll step up when it matters most. Buffalo's defense has also been playing well in recent weeks, which included forcing three turnovers in last week's Divisional Round win over the Ravens.

It's going to be a close game between two of the best teams in the NFL. But this might finally be the year the Bills beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.

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