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2024-25 College Football Playoff National Championship Game analysis for Notre Dame against Ohio State. How can the Irish pull off the upset on Monday night?
After a long, exciting season of College Football, the 2024-25 campaign is set to conclude with two CFB bluebloods competing in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Both squads have overcome disappointing regular-season losses to get to this point and are playing their best football of the year.
Notre Dame has come up big in clutch moments to advance to "the Natty," while Ohio State has been dominant for the majority of its CFP run. Ohio State is favored by more than a touchdown on most Sportsbooks, and almost every expert is picking the Buckeyes to become the two-loss team to take home the hardware. The Irish likely don't mind playing the underdog role, but how can they upset the Buckeyes, who have been a buzzsaw during its postseason run?
Below, we'll dive into 10 keys for Notre Dame to pull off the upset and take home its first National Championship since 1988. Let's get to it!
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1. Start Fast
In Round 1 of the College Football Playoff, Ohio State got out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead against Tennessee. The early-game dominance continued in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, as the Buckeyes jumped out to an insurmountable 34-0 lead. Texas kept the Cotton Bowl Classic close thanks to early stops on defense, and they never let Ohio State get out too far ahead.
This will be key for the Irish, who lack a consistent downfield passing attack. The Irish cannot play from behind if they want to bring home the hardware. Notre Dame, in obvious passing situations for most of the contest, is a recipe for disaster. Notre Dame has to find a way to manufacture points on one of its first two offensive series.
2. Utilize Riley Leonard's Legs
Ohio State has arguably the best defense in the country with very few weaknesses. However, dual-threat quarterbacks present a challenge for any stop unit. Leonard has been a major factor on the ground during his lone season in South Bend, accumulating 866 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns.
If Notre Dame wants to find success on offense, a balanced attack, including designed QB runs, will be required. Leonard isn't the fastest player in the country, but he's one of the toughest, and he's a load to get down in the open field.
RILEY LEONARD MAKES FIGHTING IRISH HISTORY 😤
The most single-season rushing touchdowns for a Notre Dame QB ever 👏 pic.twitter.com/uIjUVEHRTx
— ESPN (@espn) December 21, 2024
3. Get Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price In Space
Notre Dame's running back duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price is one of the most explosive pairings in the country. Both backs have at least one run of 70-plus yards this season, and a big-time explosive run or two would do wonders for Notre Dame's chances to win.
Love is dealing with a knee injury but has hung in there and delivered big plays during Notre Dame's trip to the Natty. His injury might limit his top-end speed, but it's not making him much easier to tackle.
4. Dominate Special Teams
Under Marcus Freeman's leadership, Notre Dame's special teams unit has been among the best in the country. In just the last three College Football Playoff games, the Irish have flashed on special teams.
In Round 1, Notre Dame forced Indiana to use a timeout after a late substitution from its punt team. In the Sugar Bowl, the Irish returned a kickoff for a touchdown, came close to blocking two punts, and ran its offense onto the field late on fourth down in a punting situation to draw Georgia's defense offsides.
Georgia might be thinking about this offsides penalty for a very long time
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 3, 2025
Notre Dame is a significant underdog in this one, so a spark on special teams could prove to be a key factor. If you're pulling for the Irish, root for some kind of massive special teams play like a blocked kick, return for a touchdown, or a forced fumble on an Ohio State return opportunity.
5. Move The Pocket
If you watched Notre Dame take on Penn State, you saw pass protection was an issue throughout most of the Orange Bowl victory. Penn State's defense, headlined by Abdul Carter, is loaded, but Ohio State has an even more fierce front seven. Freshman left tackle Anthonie Knapp won't play on Monday, so Ohio State could wreck the game off the edge if Notre Dame isn't prepared.
Notre Dame's offensive line faces a mismatch against edge rushers J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Having Leonard stand flatfooted in the pocket will not play over well. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock must be creative and find ways to get Leonard on the edge where he can take off for easy yards or create passing plays outside of the pocket.
6. Generate At Least One Explosive Pass
Notre Dame's offense has looked lifeless at times when the run game isn't working, so Leonard and company must generate at least one or two explosive passes. It's hard to imagine the Notre Dame offense sustaining drives repeatedly against the best defense in the country, so they need a big play from Jaden Greathouse, Beaux Collins, Jordan Faison, or Mitchell Evans in the passing game.
Greathouse flipped the momentum of the game against Penn State with an incredible 54-yard touchdown. More of that!
LEONARD FINDS GREATHOUSE FOR THE 54-YARD TOUCHDOWN!
WE ARE ALL TIED UP AGAIN.#CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/eUmKvp78EJ
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 10, 2025
7. Limit Jeremiah Smith
Texas limited Ohio State to just 21 points on offense, and a big reason was the game plan to defend all-world freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith. Smith caught just one pass for three years in the Cotton Bowl after racking up a combined 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns against Tennessee and Oregon.
Ohio State has plenty of other weapons, including running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. However, letting Smith run wild is an easy way to get blown out. Expect Notre Dame to send double-coverage Smith's way early and often. It'll be up to the other pass-catchers to generate big plays for OSU.
8. Pressure Will Howard
Will Howard was not sacked against Tennessee or Oregon, and we know how those games played out. He was under pressure against Texas and was sacked twice, leading to the Ohio State offense looking mortal for the first time in the CFP. Howard still finished last Friday's contest with 289 passing yards, but 75 of those were on the last play of the first half via screen pass.
If Howard has time to throw all day, we can consider it "game over" for Notre Dame. No matter how great defensive coordinator Al Golden and his players in the secondary are, you can only cover the monster group of wideouts the Buckeyes have for so long.
9. Win Turnover and Penalty Battle
Nationally, Ohio State ranks 14 in fewest penalty yards per game (39.7), while Notre Dame ranks fourth in turnover margin per game (+1.1) and first in total takeaways (32). One of Ohio State's keys to victory has been playing clean football and winning the penalty battle, while the Irish have prided themselves on forcing turnovers all year long.
Notre Dame picks off Drew Allar late in the fourth 😳 pic.twitter.com/F0SZvM5fFa
— ESPN (@espn) January 10, 2025
For Notre Dame to make up for the talent deficit, playing clean and forcing Ohio State miscues feels mandatory.
10. Win The Clutch Moments
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has earned a reputation for losing the clutch moments of the game in the biggest contests of his career. We haven't seen that happen in the College Football Playoff this season, but then again, the Buckeyes haven't faced many close calls.
Obviously, Notre Dame has to keep the score close for this key to even matter, but the Irish have proven capable of coming up big at the end of halves or games.
The Irish collected two pick-sixes in the fourth quarter in the regular-season finale against USC forced a strip-sack that led to a touchdown at the end of the first half against Georgia and intercepted Drew Allar, which led to a game-winning field goal against Penn State.
Based on the Vegas odds, Notre Dame needs to have a near-perfect game to win its first National Title since 1988. Winning the end of each half will be critical.
GOOD FROM 4️⃣1️⃣
MITCH JETER IS CLUTCH.
MR. JANUARY. #GoIrish pic.twitter.com/W3HO408OHQ
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 10, 2025
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