RADIO
Ian Christenson's Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Sony Open. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour. We are here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
The tour is back at Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. Patrick Fishburn and Kensei Hirata have surprised everyone with their positions at the top of the leaderboard after Round 2. Can they maintain their form over the weekend and secure a win, or will someone else challenge them, providing us with an exciting finish like last year?
Showdown, unlike standard golf DFS which covers the entire tournament, focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding players who perform well on approach is crucial, but making roster decisions that provide ownership leverage—by selecting riskier players who haven't been playing their best but could have a strong bounce-back round—is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Much, if not all, of the defense at the Waialae Country Club is wind-reliant. Players will be held more in check with double-digit mph winds, and need to pick their spots on when to attack pins or play conservatively, take a par, and move on to the next hole.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and are creating birdie opportunities.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Hideki Matsuyama faced some challenges today but remains one of the top Round 3 leaders in strokes gained on approach. He gained 1.35 strokes on approach in Round 2 and could be set for a comeback on the greens after losing 1.19 strokes putting.
Birdie putt slides past and it’s a tap in par at the par 5 18th ✅
It is an E 35 front 9 for Hideki in round 2 off the Sony Open in Hawaii 🙏
Hideki is currently tied 37th at -3 ✅🙏 pic.twitter.com/Jvr7NNHz1u— Hideki Matsuyama Tracker (@TrackingHideki) January 10, 2025
Other Options: Russell Henley
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Round 2 was a challenging round for Robert MacIntyre, as he lost 2.18 strokes putting but gained 1.9 strokes on approach, ultimately finishing Round 2 with a score of 2-under 70. Historically, he hasn't scored well in Round 3, but he will come in as one of the lower-owned players in this range and has shown he can go low. Additionally, he needs a strong performance to keep his chances alive going into Sunday.
Other Options: Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Ben Griffin started strong in the first round, posting a score of 5-under 65. While he lost 1.35 strokes on approach in Round 2, he gained 2.12 in Round 1. Although he lost strokes on the putting green in Round 1, he gained 0.68 in Round 2. If he can put these both together in Round 3, he could have a big day.
Ben Griffin in the hole ⤵️🕳️
Harry Higgs on the call 🎙️📺 Golf Channel | #OpeningDrive pic.twitter.com/HRat9oAptO
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 11, 2025
Other Options: Tom Hoge
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Denny McCarthy had a strong showing in Round 1, gaining 3.22 strokes on approach and 3.07 strokes putting. He continued his solid play in Round 2, gaining 0.74 strokes on approach and 1.29 strokes putting. McCarthy has a history of scoring well in Round 3, so expect him to keep up his good form.
Other Options: J.J. Spaun, Keith Mitchell, Nick Dunlap
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Gary Woodland is a player who can go low when his putting is on point. In Round 1, he lost 0.23 strokes putting but rebounded in Round 2, gaining 1.72 strokes. Missing out on The Sentry last week may have contributed to his slower start in Round 1, but he appears to be hitting his rhythm as he approaches Round 3. Woodland could be a lower-owned option with the potential to deliver.
Other Options: Mac Meissner, Kevin Roy
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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